Kiiruma | 2024-02-29 22:36:38 UTC | #101 Tutuu has more good vibes than the others that have currently been present. So GTH I'd go for Tutuu atm as the 3rd participant. ------------------------- Ash | 2024-02-29 22:55:45 UTC | #102 Why these three of all people? ------------------------- Ash | 2024-02-29 22:56:00 UTC | #103 So true. ------------------------- Ash | 2024-02-29 22:56:58 UTC | #104 Wait, how do you do that? ------------------------- Ash | 2024-02-29 22:57:42 UTC | #105 There is probably a way to calculate this outright without doing a Monte Carlo simulation. ------------------------- Zugzwang | 2024-02-29 22:57:56 UTC | #106 https://playwright.dev/python/ nya nya nya ------------------------- Ash | 2024-02-29 22:58:26 UTC | #107 Oh, you have a server running? That's neat. ------------------------- Ash | 2024-02-29 22:58:45 UTC | #108 I have a Digital Ocean thing that I've been running for no good reason. Really need to figure out how to cancel it one of these days. ------------------------- Ash | 2024-02-29 22:59:29 UTC | #109 I would argue that the marginal utility between 1/2 and 1/3 is not worth the potential data we could get from any other result. ------------------------- Zugzwang | 2024-02-29 22:59:36 UTC | #110 not rn, though I'm hoping that I just can tell my PC to not sleep and leave the script running :joy_cat: I do intend to get a server at some point; it'd be useful for multiple projects now ------------------------- Ash | 2024-02-29 23:00:43 UTC | #111 There's probably a good reason for this, but why the shift? ------------------------- Zugzwang | 2024-02-29 23:01:31 UTC | #112 there may be! However I haven't found one. Also it's nice to have it output instructions as well ------------------------- Ash | 2024-02-29 23:03:17 UTC | #113 Fair. I will see if I can outright probability-calc this when I don't have an essay due far too soon. ------------------------- Marluna | 2024-02-29 23:16:34 UTC | #114 But it is much slower to check 2 person per day, than checking 3 person per day. I think if we start with only checking 2 person, mafia will get an advantage of us, purely via math. ------------------------- Marluna | 2024-02-29 23:24:56 UTC | #116 [vote]Kiirume[/vote] [vote]tuutuu[/vote] [vote]Zugzwang[/vote] ------------------------- Marluna | 2024-02-29 23:26:43 UTC | #117 Oops. It's very sensitive for misspelling. [vote]kiiruma[/vote] [vote]tutuu[/vote] [vote]Zugzwang[/vote] ------------------------- Someone | 2024-02-29 23:30:17 UTC | #118 im saying for D1 and D2 it makes sense ------------------------- Someone | 2024-02-29 23:30:37 UTC | #119 and then we bump to 3, and we could go slower/faster depending on speed of evils ------------------------- Marluna | 2024-02-29 23:32:55 UTC | #120 Also Masons don't have the luxury of concentrating the jailing nly on 9 people (otherwhise they will be find easily) but mafia can do that, so we have to use every possibility to gain edge on them, even if it risks a 1/3. ------------------------- Someone | 2024-02-29 23:33:23 UTC | #121 Oh you are right, i didnt really think about that ------------------------- Zugzwang | 2024-02-29 23:35:15 UTC | #122 Marluna do you TR me/tutuu/kii (seeing as you're voting for us)? If so why, if not, why are you voting us over everyone else? ------------------------- Marluna | 2024-02-29 23:42:39 UTC | #123 I think town reading is secondary in this early in the game. (Especially ina no-flip setup.) Since more than three players already decided to go with you three, I don't think mafia had a big chance to influence this decision and I want prevent them to doing so in the future of this day. ------------------------- Kiiruma | 2024-02-29 23:51:56 UTC | #124 As after discussion we'd decided to go for a 0 rather than a 2/3 ------------------------- Zugzwang | 2024-02-29 23:52:45 UTC | #125 mmmmmm Kii, why did you feel it was optimal to go for 3 people who'd be hard to read, rather than 3 people who were wolfy? ------------------------- beancat | 2024-03-01 00:02:38 UTC | #126 wait hold up why tf are we all voting for these 3 ------------------------- Zugzwang | 2024-03-01 00:07:31 UTC | #127 read thread nya nya nya ------------------------- Kiiruma | 2024-03-01 00:14:45 UTC | #128 The reasoning why I went for 3 wildcards as we entered the game is that way we can start PoEing using the results that we gain. If all 3 are good, then we wouldn't need to worry about them anymore. If we got a 2 then we'd be able to go to stage 2 of the plan(TM) ------------------------- Zugzwang | 2024-03-01 00:21:24 UTC | #129 Sure, but if you get a 1, that's bad. And you can greatly minimize the chance you get a 1 by, well, doing reads. I find it strange that you'd feel the best play is to set your sights on a specific group of 3 people, rather than deciding based on dayplay. ------------------------- tutuu | 2024-03-01 00:24:53 UTC | #130 Jailing the people willing to be more loud / influential is extra good because it gives them and them only extra information. Even if it's 1/3 for me it will be 1/2, and so for the other town person. Hopefully eventually we find each other and turn that 1/3 into three full peeks. In contrast to putting three low volume players who don't organize things - they are less likely to utilize the extra info they are given So from this angle - put the three top posters, but not from the "be afraid of them" angle that Someone suggests - I dont think thats too important or something to be aftaid of - but from the "give the extra info to these players" - seems correct to me ------------------------- Zugzwang | 2024-03-01 00:26:00 UTC | #131 hi tutuu nya ------------------------- Zugzwang | 2024-03-01 00:26:45 UTC | #132 do you have any reads :flushed: ------------------------- Zugzwang | 2024-03-01 00:27:11 UTC | #133 also mmmmmmmmmmm I'm tempted to go back to Formal Posting idk this doesn't give me super Formal Game Vibes though ------------------------- tutuu | 2024-03-01 00:27:12 UTC | #134 Nothing that stood out to me ------------------------- Kiiruma | 2024-03-01 00:28:24 UTC | #135 It's why I adapted after seeing people posting. I made the initial post pre-game, for a basis if we had no other direction. ------------------------- Zugzwang | 2024-03-01 00:29:20 UTC | #136 mmmmmmmmm did you think it was at all realistic we'd have no direction though? ------------------------- Zugzwang | 2024-03-01 00:29:29 UTC | #137 also. Are you trying to pocket me nya ------------------------- Zugzwang | 2024-03-01 00:29:52 UTC | #138 (it's ok to say yes! I try pockets as town) ------------------------- Kiiruma | 2024-03-01 00:30:44 UTC | #139 I don't particularly care if I pocket you or not I'm just glad to see another mechanical mind. ------------------------- Zugzwang | 2024-03-01 00:33:30 UTC | #140 mmmmmmmmm fair enough [Vote]Zug[/vote] [vote]Kii[/vote] [vote]Tutuu[/vote] ------------------------- Ash | 2024-03-01 00:40:22 UTC | #141 Ah, ok. I'm guessing that's why you put yourself in there? ------------------------- Zugzwang | 2024-03-01 00:40:45 UTC | #142 hi Ash ------------------------- Ash | 2024-03-01 00:40:52 UTC | #143 Hi Zug. ------------------------- beancat | 2024-03-01 00:41:06 UTC | #144 nah im just finding it odd that like there's 0 pushback ------------------------- Ash | 2024-03-01 00:43:22 UTC | #145 Didn't notice that, but now that you mention it, Someone being the only resistance and that resistance being based upon not the people but the number of people is peculiar. ------------------------- Zugzwang | 2024-03-01 00:43:40 UTC | #146 That's been in the back of my mind, but I'm not too concerned currently because it's only been <4 hours since game start, and many people haven't even posted yet. @Bionic's vote does look strange and unexplained though. ------------------------- Ash | 2024-03-01 00:43:42 UTC | #147 God, I need to watch fewer British films. ------------------------- Zugzwang | 2024-03-01 00:44:06 UTC | #148 nah that sentence was not hard to parse I have posted much worse.. ------------------------- Ash | 2024-03-01 00:44:25 UTC | #149 [quote="Zugzwang, post:146, topic:7398"] I’m not too concerned currently because it’s only been <4 hours since game start [/quote] Yeah, you're probably right. ------------------------- Ash | 2024-03-01 00:45:21 UTC | #150 The weird thing to me is that if this ends up as a 1/3, Kiiruma's very obviously the 1 in 3, so it just seems like an unnecessary risk for mafia to take. ------------------------- Zugzwang | 2024-03-01 00:46:59 UTC | #151 I've leaned towards Kii being the most likely 1 in 3 here, yeah, but why is it obvious? ------------------------- Zugzwang | 2024-03-01 00:48:25 UTC | #152 Like, I don't have to read myself, and yet I'm still not nearly that confident on this ------------------------- Ash | 2024-03-01 00:50:13 UTC | #153 They were the one that really pushed the you-him-Tutuu trio, at least from what I remember reading. ------------------------- Zugzwang | 2024-03-01 00:52:51 UTC | #154 They were probably the most prominent pusher, but that still feels like way too little to base a read on. Presumably, you see a possibility of T!Kii here (or else you'd be wolfreading him already). And if you can see T!Kii currently, why can't you see him as a wrong townie, in the case we're 1/3? Do you have strong reasons to TR me and Tutuu? ------------------------- Ash | 2024-03-01 00:52:51 UTC | #155 Ok, quickly backread. Someone proposed you and Tutuu and no one else. You went with yourself and Tutuu but not Kiiruma. Kiiruma added himself to create the trio, and that's what we've been going with. ------------------------- Ash | 2024-03-01 00:55:18 UTC | #156 He just seems like the dominant force in this game. Like, we're presumably going to go with the you-him-Tutuu strat, and he inserted himself into that, so I'm trying to determine whether that's a red flag. Does that make sense? ------------------------- Zugzwang | 2024-03-01 00:59:24 UTC | #157 I can see what you mean, but I still don't feel it's obvious and near-certain like you're saying it is. Do you really think there's no chance of W!Me or W!Tutuu? It's OK to admit you contradicted yourself or didn't word things correctly by the way - I've contradicted myself as town many times before :stuck_out_tongue: (and I've made some incorrect tunnels based on various contradictions) ------------------------- Ash | 2024-03-01 01:00:39 UTC | #158 I am currently working under the presumption that you three were jailed and we got a 1/3. Haven't considered any other possibilities yet. Will do so at not-1-AM. ------------------------- Zugzwang | 2024-03-01 01:01:36 UTC | #159 that's not what I meant tbhtbthbthbthbhtbthb I mean that, if we did get a 1/3, do you really only think W!Kii is the only possible world? ------------------------- Ash | 2024-03-01 01:02:15 UTC | #160 I think it's by far the most probable. If ya'll go 1/3, I'm going after Kiiruma. ------------------------- guavagudetama | 2024-03-01 01:46:35 UTC | #161 Yo, finally able to be on I’ll be more active tomorrow, rn I have less than an hour ------------------------- guavagudetama | 2024-03-01 01:47:14 UTC | #162 They said it so it must be true locktown ------------------------- guavagudetama | 2024-03-01 01:47:54 UTC | #163 [quote="Kiiruma, post:24, topic:7398"] Ideally we’ll sink 2 mafia at once as that prevents mafia from ever claiming Masons - As the only way they can claim masons is by all claiming to be masons together. Town as a result should be tentative when it comes to mis-confirming anybody. [/quote] Why would literally anyone ever claim mason that doesn’t really seem beneficial ------------------------- guavagudetama | 2024-03-01 01:48:55 UTC | #164 Claiming mason as mason gets you beamed by mafia Claiming mason has vt gets you suspicion from all the real masons And claiming mason as mafia gets you suspicion from all the real masons + if the mafia all claim it we just jail them to check and they lose ------------------------- Kiiruma | 2024-03-01 01:49:32 UTC | #165 I'm still saying it's a *technical* thing mafia could do and if we got a 2 it'd prevent that fully. ------------------------- guavagudetama | 2024-03-01 01:51:02 UTC | #166 [quote="tutuu, post:27, topic:7398"] Here is a list of all my past games on FoL. I’ve taken the liberty to pre-emptively inptut this one. [/quote] HELPPPP WHY DID YOU ALREADY PUT THAT WENLOST WHAT ------------------------- guavagudetama | 2024-03-01 01:51:58 UTC | #167 [quote="Zugzwang, post:29, topic:7398"] I in fact have a program to tell me the optimal* guesses to make [/quote] I feel like there’s a site rule against this ------------------------- guavagudetama | 2024-03-01 01:53:35 UTC | #168 🤓 ------------------------- guavagudetama | 2024-03-01 01:55:31 UTC | #169 [quote="Bionic, post:43, topic:7398, full:true"] nah prople who post walls should be scrutinized [/quote] [quote="Kiiruma, post:44, topic:7398, full:true"] Then… scrutinise my wall. Have a look and think whether anything I’ve said seems inaccurate. [/quote] [quote="Bionic, post:46, topic:7398, full:true"] i didn’t read it [/quote] Oh we’re in the bad place ------------------------- Zugzwang | 2024-03-01 02:02:21 UTC | #170 The following post has been scheduled to be posted at this time. ### Reads list: Tutuu - lean/light town. They've felt a lot like their previous town self (though admittedly I don't have wolf meta to compare to). I also like #73 and #130, though whether there's wolf motivation for these posts depends greatly on alignments. Kii - light town. I very much like #87 - it's a pretty hard thought to fake. That being said, I've been a bit nervous about him pushing wolf agenda, mainly in a world with one wolf in {Someone, Bionic, Derps}. I don't like how he tried to push that somewhat arbitrary world out of the gate, and I don't feel his reason of using it as 'a basis if we had no other direction.' If it were most people I'd probably wolfread that response harder, but from a player like Kii, who likes mech, I can somewhat see it. Marluna - nullish town. I think (as explained by Tutuu in #130) that, if myself/Tutuu/Kii is 1/3, it's the best possible 1/3. And of course, there's a good chance it's 0/3. So, I like Marluna's vote, which solidifies these likely anti-wolf wagons. Someone - null. Frost/Hippo/Guava/Derps - no posts yet Bionic - Light wolf - Dislike the way he instantly was on board with voting Me/Tutuu/Kii, despite having no read there (or alternatively scumreading Kii, if the earlier posts weren't joking). Beancat - Light wolf - Not a fan of how she wolfread Kii in #62, and then dropped it. Also I don't like that she felt it strange that there was little pushback to the current wagons, but then didn't do anything about it. First one miiight be me missing a joke though. Ash - Medium-lean wolf. I really don't like how in #150 they are very confident Kii is always the 1/3. It feels like either TMI or a wolf failing to fake a read. His reasons given in the following posts, where I questioned him, felt milquetoast. Also, I also don't like the way they immediately dropped their concern about stagnant wagons in #149. I feel my reason of 'not much time has passed and many people haven't posted' is not too hard to think of oneself, so it feels wolfy that he didn't. That being said, on both these points, I'll give him that it was 1 AM for him, so it's not too bad a look. ------------------------- guavagudetama | 2024-03-01 02:04:39 UTC | #171 [vote]tutuu[/vote] [vote]Kiiruma[/vote] [vote]No Prisoner 3[/vote] ------------------------- guavagudetama | 2024-03-01 02:04:58 UTC | #172 This ties the vote count in a way that looks better ❤️ ------------------------- guavagudetama | 2024-03-01 02:05:12 UTC | #173 777 maybe we’ll get lucky and 3/3 d1 ------------------------- Kiiruma | 2024-03-01 02:05:36 UTC | #174 For *sure* bestie. Me, Tutuu and Zug are all wolves and deciding we want to throw. ------------------------- guavagudetama | 2024-03-01 02:06:08 UTC | #175 It would be funny ------------------------- Zugzwang | 2024-03-01 02:08:40 UTC | #176 oh this doesn't look at the thread or anything it just crunches the setup numbers and imagines it's all mech and no reads ------------------------- Zugzwang | 2024-03-01 02:10:54 UTC | #177 guava what device are you on :flushed: ------------------------- Zugzwang | 2024-03-01 02:11:02 UTC | #178 (like, mobile/pc) ------------------------- guavagudetama | 2024-03-01 02:11:16 UTC | #179 Mobile ------------------------- Zugzwang | 2024-03-01 02:11:21 UTC | #180 TOWN nya nya nya ------------------------- Zugzwang | 2024-03-01 02:11:33 UTC | #181 (reason) ![image|535x223](upload://kTtCTPQ87CUAJ1fp12IPoadrJkC.png) I like the only 14 second delay here Indicates fluid (and therefore towny) thoughts ------------------------- guavagudetama | 2024-03-01 02:11:44 UTC | #182 I’m at school rn I have to get ready for a show in like 20 minutes (starts at :00) ------------------------- Zugzwang | 2024-03-01 02:12:33 UTC | #183 gl ------------------------- guavagudetama | 2024-03-01 02:13:31 UTC | #184 14 second delay is crazy I sent that message and I was like “wow I typed that fast” ------------------------- guavagudetama | 2024-03-01 02:13:54 UTC | #185 It’s the flow puzzle time trials my thumbs are faster ------------------------- guavagudetama | 2024-03-01 02:15:36 UTC | #186 💪💪💪 ![image|231x500](upload://7XTFlqnk1aqPAHrJrYdFK7MlDWK.jpeg) ------------------------- guavagudetama | 2024-03-01 02:17:49 UTC | #187 Zugzwang is obvtown btw ------------------------- guavagudetama | 2024-03-01 02:18:06 UTC | #188 Like wdym you have a program to crunch the numbers of the setup you don’t pull that out as scum ------------------------- Bionic | 2024-03-01 02:19:26 UTC | #189 no ------------------------- Zugzwang | 2024-03-01 02:20:20 UTC | #190 ok I was gonna ask why but this is good reasoning I was intentionally lying pregame about my program not working, since if I rolled wolf I was 100% keeping that in wolfchat ------------------------- guavagudetama | 2024-03-01 02:22:22 UTC | #191 I’m surprised you even brought it up pregame I don’t read pregame chat unless I’m an early sign up making sure nobody I hate joins LOL ------------------------- Bionic | 2024-03-01 02:25:48 UTC | #192 [quote="Zugzwang, post:146, topic:7398"] vote does look strange and unexplained though [/quote] also everyone is voting them anyways that's why i followed along ------------------------- SirDerpsAlot | 2024-03-01 04:10:04 UTC | #193 I got distracted and forgot this started today ------------------------- Zugzwang | 2024-03-01 04:19:26 UTC | #194 nya hi ------------------------- Zugzwang | 2024-03-01 04:19:50 UTC | #195 sooooooo why does everyone voting us matter for your decision ------------------------- SirDerpsAlot | 2024-03-01 04:21:39 UTC | #196 Why do 3 people have 7 votes sheesh what’d I miss ------------------------- Zugzwang | 2024-03-01 04:32:30 UTC | #197 i mean, there's only been 200 posts so far so it doesn't take too long to read but long story short, people are voting me/tutuu/kii mainly because we're towny (we're going for 0/3 wolves) and high posting (so it's good to resolve our alignments, and not as bad if there's a wolf among us) ------------------------- SirDerpsAlot | 2024-03-01 04:43:16 UTC | #198 We’re going for 0/3 wolves? ------------------------- Zugzwang | 2024-03-01 04:46:41 UTC | #199 Yeah. While 2/3 (or 3/3) wolves is better, that's way harder to get, and much more likely to result in 1/3 (worst option). Also, if we get maximally unlucky in all future guesses, 2/3 and 0/3 require the same number of guesses to win, so they're not *that* different. Also, from a social standpoint, if we do get 0/3 wolves among us 3, then we have 3 confirmed town highposters to lead the game. ------------------------- Kiiruma | 2024-03-01 05:03:25 UTC | #200 Overall while there's of course a higher upside to getting 2/3 wolves, our objective is just to stay ahead of the wolves for now. Potentially clearing 3 players has a huge benefit to it and we can then start solving using information and advice provided by those 3 players as there'd be no reason for them to lie if they're all confirmed as good. Myself and Zug have presented Mechanical arguments which are strictly factual and can't really be doubted there. However, in order to help people realise that our plotting out for the next steps also comes from an innocent perspective it is in town's interest to confirm me and Zug (As well as another player) so that we can lead and advise. Tutuu being one of the higher posters and relatively towny is a good choice for slot #3 ------------------------- Bionic | 2024-03-01 05:26:15 UTC | #201 beacuse being against everyone would be unhelpful -------------------------