Oh, I meant to say Magnus originated from an earlier work and that’s why your work was an adaption.
Phyrexia: All will be Neo
[Picture: “Elesh Norn, Mother of Machine” art, with each head replaced with Matrix 3 Neo’s head.]
Splatfest results talk
Lmfao I joined White Chocolate for the memes, how tf did we win every category and the fest. Sorry but we’re built different.
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Auuugh no my 3 Sea Snails (<-- Has 63 Sea Snails sitting unused)
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May is probably mafia trying to pocket you.
Alright, so I’ve been vaguely curious if the “common wisdom” that executing mafia day 1 is secretly bad and makes town more likely to lose is actually true
so I went through all the non-Misc non-Turbo FM games since we moved to Fortress and checked (1) the faction that was executed day 1, (2) the faction that won
notes:
- the sample size here is obviously really low, don’t draw conclusions too much from this
- I was pretty sure going in that it wasn’t so I did have a bias, but I decided on my methodology before I checked the numbers
- I omitted the following games from the sample: all miscs, all turbos, Higurashi FM (weird setup where this analysis doesn’t make sense), Hydra Popcorn (no executions, only guns), Circle of Hell (weird bastard game where people didn’t start out with their actual wincons). Otherwise, I went based on the Completed Game Threads + listed flips.
- I counted all non-neuts as just “mafia” rather than “werewolves” or “unshackled” or whatever
- In games where it was not allowed to execute anyone day 1 (rather than players choosing to no exe) I was going to count from the day 2 execution. However, it turns out there weren’t any games like that that I could find.
results:
In games where a member of the Mafia was executed day 1, Town won 5/12 games (~42%) and Mafia won 7/12 games (~58%)
In games where a member of the Town was executed day 1, Town won 5/26 games (~19%) and Mafia won 21/26 games (81%)
In games where no one was executed day 1, Town won 1/3 games (~33%), Mafia won 1/3 games (33%), and a serial killer won 1/3 games (33%)
In games where a neutral was executed day 1, Mafia won 1/1 game (100%)
conclusions:
seems like executing scum day 1 is fine actually
data disclosure 
:
The spreadsheet I used is here
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if anyone else has questions they want answered with numbers let me know
my Top Question Answerable With Numbers at the moment is ‘so how well does SBPC work on FoL’ but I’m not sure how to test this – raw postcount is going to be lopsided since active townies tend to die earlier, average daily postcount is going to be lopsided since people’s postcounts tend to drop off over time, day 1 postcount could theoretically work as a proxy but then I have to figure out how much people posted on day 1 in particular and that’s annoying on Discourse
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Based on this data, it is safe to conclude that:
- Executing No-One will result in a random faction winning
- Executing Neutrals is Bad, Actually.
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i think you’re significantly underselling how little it tells us in the matter, given
- the limited amount of games where a scum has died d1
- the overall sum of the games is extremely little
- it doesnt include for extra circumstances, regarding either the members of the mafia, town, roles, games, etc. the only way for such a thing to be somewhat accurately calculated is by playing ~around 300, likely far more, games of the same vanilla setup without roles
in actuality, i would consider the graph near useless in answering the question
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I mean, if you wanted to see how the principle holds up in general, there are many other mafia sites to steal data from.
If you wanted to see how it holds up specifically in this site, then you’ll need to wait a few years or two
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mhm
which is why it doesn’t tell us much
we cannot answer the question, unless we wait at least five years, given this sites record of growth
and thats not including the extra circumstances
and now that i think further its even more setup dependant aswell
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this is a tangent but I was curious so I decided to check average gamesize vs. winning alignment
this is slightly off because I was too lazy to re-add the games that I’d taken out when I was checking the first thing
town wins: average of 15.1 players
scum wins: average of 16.3 players
scum wins minus PAC: average of 15.0 players
way closer than I was expecting!
it would be cool if someone checked vanilla vs. special but that sounds like more work and I need to sleep
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What a 2004 oldie you are amagus
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bro just said 2004 is old 
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I bet you are a bigger oldie!
if you say you were born in 2004 on MU you will be called a foetus
i’m 2003 and was called an infant
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Well no one can guess my birthyear so that’s great
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2007 or 2008
