April Showers Overhaul FM - GAME OVER - Town & Survivor Victory!

Okay i am going to assume its a mafia lich because that makes me feel like i am going less insane

@guavagudetama what does lich normally do as an active

Do you guys think we have an sk?
I think itā€™s unlikely unless said sk can choose not to kill
But even then why would they after Kiirumaā€™s death

Uh lemme look

Phylactery Holder being the people they choose
So either heal or fail invests on their targets from beginning of game

No killing

ā€¦Unless youā€™re elected king.

Hm

@Vulgard

Let me test a psychic prediction. You tried to target robyn last night.

i rbed rajidae

Wellā€¦ the neighbour hood passive is now out

So if Rajidae were to be scum she didnā€™t do the kill last night
Assuming Marluna even died to mafia, maybe another townie shot her who knows

In the neighborhood, overnight, we reached some conclusions about who the last mafia member is (not Rajidae).

We think Rajidae is a wolf in most worlds. A wolf role tied to another wolf role in the way the Lich is tied to the Martyr makes more sense as W/W than as 3p/W. Guava has also claimed 3p and 1-shot yeetproof ā€“ two yeetproof roles in a 15er seem like too many. Or guava is lying, but I find that less likely.

In light of this, beancat mechanically canā€™t be mafia, because she gave Achro an item and the Martyr doesnā€™t have that ability, while the Lich is Rajidae. Unless the mafia have a factional ability that gives people things, which I find unlikely, beancat is not mafia.

If there is a roleblocker other than Robyn, they should claim now.

@robyn What was your n2 action?

Leafia also has a believable enough claim to not be the Martyr, and me + Hazard mechanically canā€™t be it because we have a neighborhood and the Martyr doesnā€™t. Icet is also a mason and is mechcleared for the same reason.

Achro is confirmed to have given KP to Hazard, so he is also mechcleared. This leaves a narrow pool of people.

Frost, Guava, Jake, and Robyn. Two of whom have claimed 3p, lol.

There will be a follow-up post to this in a moment.

So heres what i know mech wise

Radijae is a role called lich. Think its mafia but really who knowa
Leafia claimed asap day a 2. Thatā€™s proper play for claiming a town kill and i know her wolf game.
Robyn is claiming blocker
Icet is mason
Vul/hazard are in a hood
Jake claimed neutral looking for killer
Guava claimed survivor
Frost doesnt have anything mech related
Beancat gave me an item n1

Those are every player besides me. Hrm

Bodyguard. I protect 1 person + 1 person for every Town member who has died.

This is why I could basically always self-resolve unless I was getting roleblocked or someone in my neighborhood died.

And this is why I didnā€™t want to get roleblocked.

Oh i thought you were hider lmao

Alao semi bastard so technically that role card could have been edited

So like who did you protect last night

This is why we thought the hood was pretty town

Oh yeah vul who were your 3 targets

Oh and also who did you protect the first night actually since I just processed you had two nights of protection

The follow-up post is this.

Overnight, I posted the idea that robyn canā€™t be mafia with Rajidae because they wouldnā€™t have played it like that if they were W/W. What, Rajidae claims ā€œroleblocked parity cop,ā€ robyn swoops in very late to take the credit when there couldā€™ve been a town roleblocker that CCs them if they die, Rajidae doesnā€™t die to the execution which makes Robyn look terrible? Why would they do that?

I just realized there is a very good reason for them to do that if they are W/W. Robyn and Rajidae were both wagons. They were both going to get eliminated at this rate. A hail mary play to trigger Rajidaeā€™s deathproof ability and deprive the village of an execution while also giving robyn some credit for blocking a role that didnā€™t die is one of the best plays this wolfteam couldā€™ve performed. In this universe, Iā€™m assuming there was no roleblock, because nobody counterclaimed yesterday and there was a missing nightkill - the kill was probably missing due to town protection.

Thatā€™s why Iā€™m asking other roleblockers to claim now if they exist.

Itā€™s also noteworthy that robyn was top wagon when they claimed and robyn also claimed late into the day. If robyn goes over, Rajidae likely follows. If Rajidae is ā€œexecuted,ā€ there is some remaining doubt.

Really, they had no other choice but to try and capitalize on Rajidaeā€™s deathproofness in that situation if theyā€™re W/W. So I think Robyn is pretty likely to be the Martyr here.

Thereā€™s also the fact the three other candidates are two 3p claims and Frost, whom I believe to be in his town meta pretty solidly. Unless one of the 3p claims is mafia, it should just be Robyn, unless Frost significantly leveled up his game.