April Showers Overhaul FM - GAME OVER - Town & Survivor Victory!

[Achromatic]

@Frostwolf103

Question for you

Who originally brought up arsonist?

[Marluna]

@Achromatic
I think i know your role. At least one part of it.
(And by now, Hazard and Vul should it as well, if they understand the question I asked in the neighborhood.)

[Frostwolf103]

Hmm, looking back, haven’t you brought this up before I did?

[Vulgard]

I just did the math, let me cook for a moment.

I calculated the probability of Rajidae’s rolecop getting a difference check based on how many players of each alignment are alive going into night 1. Of course, I remembered to exclude the parity cop themselves in the calculations, but presenting the results this way is clearer.

11 villagers, 2 wolves, 1 third party: 41%
10 villagers, 2 wolves, 2 third parties: 51,3%
10 villagers, 3 wolves, 1 third party: 50%
9 villagers, 3 wolves, 2 third parties: 59%
9 villagers, 4 wolves, 1 third party: 56,4%

So, in the absolute most optimistic scenario for town in terms of setup design and gameplay (wolf executed day 1 AND there are only 4 nontown), the chance is 41%, which I’d consider pretty high. This is when choosing COMPLETELY RANDOMLY. I didn’t consider the fact Icet is a confirmed villager in my calculations, for one, nor did I exclude anyone else.

If the scenario is anything but the most optimistic, the chance of getting a “different” result is a coinflip or better. Again, that’s when choosing completely at random and without considering who’s cleared.

Pretty powerful role right here.

[Achromatic]

Yes.

Which seems like a strange to do as that exact role.

[Achromatic]

yeah…

This +

Hey guys could the kill have been ROLEBLOCKED

Anyone know anything about a ROLEBLOCK!?

But still there are potatoes amongus

[Frostwolf103]

@Achromatic

Acrually let me just put my paranoia to rest.

I am a little worried about the setup given there were 0 recorded anti town deaths and kiiruma seems certain there is some form of evil 3p. Evil 3ps usually have kp. A type of evil that wouldnt have kp right away is an arsonist who collects targets over nights to kill all at once.

A good strategy for a potential arsonist who lives very long is to be very town sided and give no real reason to want them dead. Masons + 3 town hood members does sound a little too good to be true and earlier vulgard claimed there was a specific to hood mechanic that made him doubt it. Which if he was the evil 3p would be convenient.

Just want this reason vulgard referenced publicly vetted to set my mind at ease.

@Achromatic

Yes.

Which seems like a strange to do as that exact role.

Homebrew rules, there is no such arsonists douse action based on anti claim before I know
(Cool concept though)

At the same time, I have no reason to trueclaim if I was myself 3P killer much as deadly like this.

[Marluna]

They are still some demerits to the role.

If it get a different, it’s still a coinflip, if the town target the scum. (If we standing on mechanical reasons)

Also getting different with neuts in game, doesn’t garantuee that the other is town, if we lynch a scum on one side.

[Achromatic]

I agree. Thus:

April Showers Overhaul FM - Day 2 (13/15)

lowers frost 3p equity

[Frostwolf103]

Because if it’s not anti claim mechanic that makes nasty 3P in the game as kiiruma claims it.

That would be 3P with final players alive win condition.

[Achromatic]

This is true

I think ultimately given game state we let rajidae cook

[Frostwolf103]

@Frostwolf103

Because if it’s not anti claim mechanic that makes nasty 3P in the game as kiiruma claims it.

That would be 3P with final players alive win condition.

But where is the fun of that, if you cant burn players to ashes

[Vulgard]

I should also mention that when considering 3p/3p checks, I made the assumption they check as “same alignment.” If they check as “different,” then the probability of different checks is even higher in the scenarios where we have two third parties.

I’d also like to add that almost any result is good for town in some way. The probability of Rajidae finding two wolves (or two third parties) as “same alignment” is astronomically low, so there is only a tiny chance this role could misclear someone.

11 villagers, 2 wolves, 1 third party: 1,3% chance for a w/w check, can’t have a 3p/3p check
10 villagers, 2 wolves, 2 third parties: 1,3% chance for a w/w check, 1,3% chance for a 3p/3p check
10 villagers, 3 wolves, 1 third party: 3,8% chance for a w/w check, can’t have a 3p/3p check
9 villagers, 3 wolves, 2 third parties: 3,8% chance for a w/w check, 1,3% chance for a 3p/3p check
9 villagers, 4 wolves, 1 third party: 7,7% chance for a w/w check, can’t have a 3p/3p check

At the absolute worst and when choosing completely randomly, Rajidae’s role only has a 7,7% chance to check two nontown as “same.” Anything but that is a useful result for town.

@Marluna

They are still some demerits to the role.

If it get a different, it’s still a coinflip, if the town target the scum. (If we standing on mechanical reasons)

Also getting different with neuts in game, doesn’t garantuee that the other is town, if we lynch a scum on one side.

Yes.

[Vulgard]

Of course, godfathers could exist, I suppose, and I don’t really want to execute this claim today for the reason I gave earlier, I just felt like doing the math here to figure out how good that role actually is. Turns out it’s pretty damn good as claimed.

[Achromatic]

We could also just execute robyn and shoot rajidae cause yolo

@robyn come play lol

[Frostwolf103]

[Host_Account_1]

Marluna has set Rajidae’s vote weight to zero. This will be undone at the start of the next day.

[Vulgard]

Owned.

[Achromatic]

Also bad read: wolves are down but rejidae’s energy is up. Usually a good sign of town but not perfect

Ok no. Rajidae not dying today. Dont block her if you are town.

[Frostwolf103]

Mom get the camera!