like, the interactions I had with May are just kinda… not w/w and also not super non w/w either
this reminds me of the time Proph scumcased me for being w/w with Wisp (flipped scum) because we never directly talked to each other (because we weren’t online at the same time) and made a big case about it and everyone was like “yeah, lemon is scum with Wisp ”
wheeee I’m home
I went through the thread searching for May mentions of other people to see if the ‘May mentions Lemon less’ thing is real
my methodology was that I literally just searched this thread for @ May plus each name/shortened name (e.g. Lemon rather than Lemonfairy, which brings up results for both) and then counted – this probably missed a few replies, or uses of only pronouns no name, but it should be Close Enough
I did my best to discount mentions of dead people from after they died but I might’ve missed a couple
dead people
Magnus - 19
Neon - 6
Eliza - 12
Aro - 13
Otter - 10
Aleph - 4 + Vul - 1 = 5
alive people
Arctic - 28
Arete - 26
Jarek - 16
Lemon - 11
Molly - 9
Phraze - 3 + Marl - 5 = 8
Prisma - 21
Zorvo - 36
overall, it looks like May did mention Lemonfairy noticeably less than other comparable players (at least among the alive players), but it wasn’t nearly as extreme as I had thought (e.g. she mentions Molly even less). However, I think it’s notable that in the other cases, there was something else going on, like ‘being the night 1 nightkill’ or ‘subbing in for a slanker with 12 posts’ or ‘having 72 posts total on day 4.’ In contrast, Lemonfairy has 256 posts, which makes the low number of mentions really weird in context.
also I wanted to make sure I wasn’t just handwaving things as ‘well there SHOULD be more mentions since Lemon POSTED more’ so I made a graph of total mentions vs. total posts (subs were rolled together with posts + mentions added). the line is the “trendline” for the graph, the dot that I circled in red is Lemon (the other three dots below the line are Vulgardaleph, Neon, and Marlphraze)
wolves try to sound like they believe their posts challenge 2k22 (difficulty level: impossible)
[the confidence level implied by the phrasing is higher than my actual confidence but this post did make me literally make the expression IRL]
lol
well i feel like i’ve given you a perfectly good place to start (“who do you think is good or bad?”) if you want to work with anyone at all, i’m kinda stumped on how else i could help you out here
and uh
maybe this is more obvious to you than me but why me of all people
I moved Arete up b/c I was liking some of their posts while interacting with them at the time
I also townread them SOD today when they came into today with the whole “vote me out while working with me under the assumption that I’m town today or never vote me out” and I’m weak to that kind of ATE and I was expecting a sheepable solve from them if they were town but they come up with something like Arctic/May/Lemon and Arctic/May/Prisma
the second post was also some time after I did my first ISO on May (I can’t remember if I townleaned May after my first ISO or not) and the day before, May plopped an unexplained vote on me and dipped so yeah, I was scumreading May then
but then I re-evaluated because I felt I had been too focused on Arete being scum this time so I went and looked into other people’s ISO’s instead of digging through Arete’s and possibly confbiasing myself further but I managed to reasonably find the people I ISO’d as towns (May being one of them)
The request was half-joking, I just… don’t know who to believe, and you’re kinda separated from all the arguments and accusations going on right now - I know what Zorvo’d say if I asked, I know what Arete would say, I know what Arctic would say, they’re all part of the web of accusations; you’re more of a neutral (ish) observer, and I’d like to hear more of your perspective.
it’s like you scumread Arctic and idk I don’t remember if Arctic was scumreading you or not but I think they’re not scumreading you anymore but you’re both pushing me and trying to build some kind of case based on me being w/w with May
or at least that is what it feels like to me
@Zorvo, if you think the scumteam is Arctic/Arete/Prisma, what do you think their mindset is? What is their goal right now, what executions do they hope for today and tomorrow, do you think they’re planning to bus, distance, use their remaining credibility to get two misvotes, what’s the deal?
reevaluation
imo I’ve been pretty clear on which specific post changed my mind on Arctic, you trying to feign ignorance is not really helping your case regardless of your alignment
the thing that made me think you and May are likely to be partnered is just … reading the posts Arctic quoted, thinking ‘what’s going on here from a town perspective, what’s going on here from a wolf-interacting-with-town perspective, what’s going on here from a wolf-interacting-with-wolf perspective’ and
the interactions were Not Great.
fmpov you coming in to me + Arctic casing you as aligned with May and being like ‘haha guys Arete and Arctic are totally openwolfing’ feels pretty transparently like an attempt to try to discredit us because we’re right
well, i was considering voting you lol
if prisma becomes viable again i might go there. i’m really not sold on those seppuku posts being towny, that’s a kind of post that younger me misread a lot.
i wavered on lemon for a moment just because it was apparently so obvious to arctic and arete that they communicated the whole thing non-verbally? and i realized i was talking about the lemon case a bit like how i do when i accidentally tie myself to wolves. but i just… am not convinced by their points and am convinced by my points.
Also, for the record, everything I do is artificial. I am a liar forever and ever and this will never change
Whyyyyy does everything slip out of my head as it does. Why must I suffer in such a manner. I can’t solidly make a single read because I can’t ever… find a bottleneck, the wolves could be doing anything, the nightkills have been so generic and the executions to this date so… bad (in large part my fault) that I don’t understand their mindset and I don’t get the Tone of this game. They could be doing literally anything. I guess I’m used to having a flipped wolf, but I’ve solved games without one before… ughoughoughuhhhh
Which one of you fucks am I misclearing speak up
for me the thing (which I did use words to communicate!) that I find the most compelling about Lemon, even more than anything about progression, or number of interactions, or anything, is the first Iso they made on May
here's the whole thing
like, here are the comments they actually make on May (colors added by me):
first post is not a prepared post but answers to Arete’s RQS
probably NAI but slight scum if I had to lean it either way
this feels like one of May’s fake votes/RTs but it’s not as showy as usual
hmmm
yeah, looks like the RT was what they were doing
think I like this Zorvo read
quite nuancedthere isn’t really a conclusion but it’s early game and the extra meta info is nice
I think May would be capable of making posts like this as wolf too but I’ve never seen them wolf so I’ll store this thought away somewhere for now
actually kind of ok
I can see this from town
especially the way they don’t TR Arete despite acknowledging Arete did something similar to Arctic is something I’d read as town, esp. since I don’t have much confidence reading May tonally or from progressionidk how easy it’d be for May to fake this as wolf (probably very easy) but I’m ok calling the slot town (at least for now)
this is fine
not too chummy or awkward
I need to see May post a paragraph about how much they fear randing wolf to be sure they’re town (for legal purposes, I am half-joking)
fun fact: I’ve only ever been voted out as town during endgame
so I either just survive forever (usually the case) or I get NK’d (which is thankfully happening more often nowadays)oh I also got vigged once when I first started playing lol
not sure what to make of this?
kind of a gentle nudge to Neon, I’d lean more town than scum
but they conclude with:
I think I’m going to end it here with May’s ISO b/c I don’t think I’d be able to gain anything more wrt to May’s even if I read more (I also won’t have time to do other ISOs)
I feel comfortable enough placing a TR here
which is just, not consistent at all with the actual things they said about May? like the best things they could come up with without hedging were like “this is fine,” most of their townpoints-comments were marked with hedges or qualifiers or “but they could fake this as scum”! none of that makes sense with a conclusion where someone is a “comfortable TR”!
arguably this can just be an argument for Lemon!wolf but the interactions the other way are also kinda
I think one of my issues here, largely caused by my absence on previous days, is that a lot of people have not had serious wagons pushed on them. Nobody’s voted Molly (that I remember), so I can’t analyze how people treat her slot, Lemon’s been consensus town for so long, and it’s too late for me to poke at these things myself (or maybe I just feel it is). I need to get more flexible. I need to learn how to play games where I haven’t done the first few days perfectly, or essentially at all.
what is your read on Lemon
If asked, which is what you were doing right now, I’d say I have a null read on Lemon. I would probably say the same for literally everyone else in the game, because I am suffering under “no reads disease”, probably the most significant illness I have right now (lying voice), and everything is up in the air and floating and I cannot grasp at any of it.
I’m actually currently trying to look at Molly/Lemon equity, because I glanced over an interaction that Molly had with Prisma that looked W/V to me, and then I went “well if Molly’s sitting back and letting these executions happen maybe other wolves are coasting as well?”. Neutral on that. Lemon’s been insisting Molly’s town, which’d be interesting to do with a partner, but as I’ve said multiple times, there is no pressure I can find anywhere on the wolves to act or treat their partners a certain way, so :frogge: dunno.
Though I do wonder if that “arbitrary decision” I made that one night to pick Lemon as the target to force myself into a corner… I looked at the list of names and picked her. Was it so arbitrary? Maybe I was onto something… I wouldn’t know, I don’t remember, I only know why I did it in the first place because I made a joke about it in my rolecard… but I’ve been complaining all game about not having instincts, maybe this is the best I can find. I should look into Lemon in isolation more probably.