here is my current worldview
I think Zorvo is almost certainly just a villager. I think that ‘tunnelling a random villager incessantly starting in the first 100 posts’ is basically his town meta to a T. I think that there are a lot of things you can pull to make him look bad, such as him making multiple objectively factually wrong claims to support his incorrect push, but I think that viewing this as *actually evidence of him being a wolf is a mistake.
If I go over here (which tbc I think is unlikely, but I do want to be prepared for it) the most important piece of my legacy is ‘stop sheeping Zorvo seriously why are you doing this’ – like, if you go look at Prisma or Arctic or whoever else he’s scumreading tomorrow in this world, and you conclude that they’re scum, that’s fine, but him thinking that is not evidence, his beliefs are just not sufficiently correlated with reality for that (fwiw I literally have mathematical data from the game where everyone had to submit lists of who they thought was town/mafia backing this up).
I think Jarek is town. I think that his perspective this game (wanting to policy Seth for being annoying but not wanting to admit it, feeling like he wasn’t Allowed to push good players but trying to make himself do it anyways) has consistently been that of a villager who’s – maybe a little insecure, feels like he has something to prove, but is, fundamentally, town.
Those two are people I’m ~confident in. Not necessarily people I would be happy about betting the game on being town, but slots where I’m willing to say – okay, yes, these are villagers, I am willing to count on them being villagers and grit my teeth and tell you to trust me.
The next couple are people where I’m like ‘yes, I think this is town, but they are an archetype that occasionally fools me – but I do think they are significantly more likely town than not and don’t want them wagoned.’
I think Lemonfairy is probably a villager. I think her approach to the flashwagon yesterday was villagery/“pure”/“genuine.” I think this is more true if Arctic is a villager (if he’s a wolf I can understand reasons why she might’ve done that, like ‘ok I’m going to distance a little OH FUCK GO BACK’) but not, like, in a way where I’d be suspicious of her if he flips scum, just less willing to clear her.
I think molly is probably a villager – she’s had a couple of particularly natural/real thoughts that I think are Just Not Fake, I can quote them again if people want me to, otherwise they’re in my Iso.
The next several slots are people who I have some reasons to think are town, who I would even say are ‘probably town,’ but for various reasons I have some sort of reason to doubt them in the back of my mind.
I think May’s thought process has mostly been really townie, except at EoDs. Her EoDs have both been Super Wack, and particularly the frame of her EoD with Eliza (trying to say she townread her, when she literally mentioned the slot three times total on day 2 only one of which could arguably be expressing a townread) is kind of concerning.
Vulgard probably just dies tonight if he’s town (like, I would put ~80/20 odds on P(Vulgard dies|Vulgard is town).) I think he’s making reads he actually believes, regardless of his alignment, and definitely leaning on the fact that he had an awful lot of those reads at a point when he didn’t have TMI. His read on me in particular includes a mix of ‘things that are exactly the read he should have’ and ‘wait but this is giving me too much credit.’ I would probably just let him live until final 3 and see if he’s a wolf at that point (accounting for the fact that he’s willing to bus weaker partners). I think that if he’s a wolf, his most likely partner is Prisma – he had a couple points where he townread me for trying to get people to not townread Prisma, or expressed concern about me flipping on them, even though Prisma isn’t even his main push, which could be TMI.
(this sounds like a scumread – to be clear, I do think his depth and creativity of thought is more typical of his towngame, I’m mostly spending more time exploring wolfgard worlds since I basically expect him to die).
I think that Marl is playing to his town meta. I think Phraze was in her town meta, and I’m willing to give him some amount of townpoints for that. The biggest doubt I have with him is that he barely has reads outside of my slot? Like, he’s sussed Zorvo for pocketing him, he’s suggested that Vulgard could be TMIing me, and he’s said Arctic is town, and as far as I can remember, that’s it – four total reads (counting me) three of which basically have to do with my slot.
I think Prisma has sounded ‘uninformed,’ like a player who is just saying the things they think even if some of them are a little silly. I think that this is the biggest thing they have going for them, and my main doubts are shaped like ‘well, that’s kind of it.’ I think if they’re a wolf the most likely world is one where they aren’t getting very much support from the wolfteam.
If you’ve been counting carefully you might’ve noticed that I only have two slots left, and there are three wolves. I don’t really know who I’m wrong on (maybe multiple people, even), I’m trying to outline my thoughts in enough detail that people can trace the logic there and double-check as best they can.
Otterpopd, uh, sure is a player in this game. That’s … about all I can say for them. That doesn’t, like, rule out the possibility of them being town, but I sure don’t have reasons to think they are (yes I have seen Zorvo’s reasons but Zorvo’s reasons are bad so I’m ignoring them). I do also think they have partner compatibility with Arctic, or rather that Arctic has partner compatibility with them, but this is a weaker reason.
I think Arctic is probably a wolf. I’ve explained my reasoning already and we’re <10 minutes from EoD so I’m not going to go through it again, but – this is the closest thing I have to an actual proper wolfread.
If I go over here I think that, tomorrow, everyone should agree to treat Arctic as if he is a villager, and work with him as if he is a villager, and specifically have him try to Find A Wolf, and, while doing this, commit to, ~no matter what, just vote him out tomorrow (as in day 4 not as in day 5), and then if he turns out to be town sheep his legacy in LyLo. That’s – the best I can come up with, and I’m sorry (to him and to everyone else) if he actually is town, but I don’t, really, believe that he is.