Bland & Flavorless Mountainous 15er - Mafia Winnered

[ElizaThePsycho (Willow)]

in conclusion i have no idea where past me was coming from

[Arete]

Arete Legacy

I basically stand by this readlist:

@Arete

probably town (sorted ish)

Neon
Aleph
May
Arctic
Zorvo
Jarek
Molly

idk

Lemonfairy
Aro
Phraze
Prisma
Otter

wolfy?

Magnus
Eliza

except that Lemonfairy moves up to the bottom of the next tier up for her posting over the last ~hour or so

I do think that in this gamestate there’s a significant possibility of lots of wolves slipping past in my “idk” pile (and honestly maybe outside of there too – my top group is basically ‘anyone who’s done anything to make me think they are town’ which is a low bar)

some specific things that I think would be good to explore tomorrow basically regardless of the flip/nightkills:

• we really really need to make Eliza flesh out her reads – my experience with her as wolf is that she sometimes struggles to substantiate her thoughts. In particular, she’s had a lot of Confident reads, I think it would be good for her to explain those. (I have been trying to work on this but we keep not being online at the same time)
• get Phraze to explain literally any of her reads. Phraze is not a good wolf, she’s LHFy regardless of alignment but I believe that if she’s town she can be clearable, but that relies on actually getting her to do this.
• I said this already but Aro is a really good player, you shouldn’t judge him by the standards of ‘random newbie who just showed up to the site,’ you should judge him by the standards of like ‘almost saved my Champs semis game from a loss as town’

[Magnus]

@Arogame123

Wouldn’t powerwolf as town be the same as powertown lol?

Not exactly.

[Arete]

nice crosspost Eliza

[Prisma101]

@ElizaThePsycho

perspective slip

how

[ElizaThePsycho (Willow)]

joking
honestly i barely have any idea what a perspective slip even is

[ElizaThePsycho (Willow)]

who da frick is aro btw

[Zorvo]

How confident are you on Arctic and Jarek Town Reads?

[Prisma101]

it was literally a reply to an accusation that i was wolf and was mixing up chats

[Prisma101]

@Arogame123

[Arctic]

why
i thought that post was bad because he says all of my content at that point was commentary/questions except for … and then proceeds to list several non-commentary non-question things, so he’s like, trying to apply a wolfy label to my approach while it isn’t actually wolfy

there’s also the problem that i did bring up may later, like multiple times. and when i showed him this, instead of recognizing that he was wrong in saying that i didn’t mention may again, he just started disputing the content of the posts themselves

[ElizaThePsycho (Willow)]

oh
huh

[Zorvo]

@ElizaThePsycho

oh
huh

Hmm?

[Arete]

I think they’re both significantly >>rand

I think worlds where I’m wrong on Arctic mostly look like ‘he saw me townlean him early and decided to go all in on pocketing me vs. your push, and then manipulate me into killing the person who was most strongly pushing him’ which isn’t impossible but I expect that if it’s true I will be able to notice it on future days

honestly I might be more confident in Jarek just by virtue of him being a less experienced wolf

[Arctic]

is magnus still voting arete only for the prisma/arete w/w read despite not actually independently scumreading arete? lol

[Arete]

if you want me to assign percentages to my reads I can, you did it for me and it’s sorta unfair for me to ask you to do a thing that (if you are indeed town) could make you look dumb in postgame if I’m not willing to do the same thing

[Arctic]

like he at least had some non-preflip reasons to scumread prisma, so i don’t really understand why he is voting arete over them

[Prisma101]

ok i have been seeing flip and preflip a lot what does it mean

[Zorvo]

Flip is when someone is executed and you see their role

[Arogame123]

@Arctic

and comes up with the reasoning that “you can read into a player’s lack of a vote” just as much, or even more than a vote, but he hasn’t utilised this once to make a read, nor has he analysed the reactions relating to his lack of a vote

in the early part of the game (which there are plenty of, by the way). the rest of the post just feels like playing dumb intentionally, because there is clearly an implication that magnus was pinged tonally by jarek so the first comment feels like a wolfy deflection.

I feel like you misunderstood this and he was saying that there is no need to specifically vote someone as you can analyze their responses/back and forth without needing a vote.

He also did discuss with Jarek about his lack of a vote on him there lol.

He mentioned that it’s nagl but that doesn’t mean he has “complete distrust.” There is a bit of a stretch there in the “deflection” Arctic lol.

@Arctic

the next issue is this post, which i feel like is not a thought a villager has… like, ever. a villager who does not have TMI on the alignment of players, sees an LHF and tries to evaluate their alignment. the consideration that they are a misexe comes after an evaluation of their posts and a lean on their alignment has been made one way or another. deciding to townread otter because you want to label them as a misexe just because they are LHF feels unnatural and indicative of TMI to me. and it’s also something a wolf would feel like they’d get townread for, hence the motivation in the first place and wolf perspective (remember this tomorrow if magnus flips wolf)

Unfortunately, I do agree with this sentiment and can see how this comes off as TMI and I will say if Magnus is mafia, then he tmi’d otter town. However, I have seen players make these type of reads as town even when they don’t feel anything particular about a player’s certain alignment. They tend to feel like because a player is “ml” that they are town and tend to default to that based on vibes in thread. But I will agree with u that this point is a bit damming for them in terms of solving Otter’s alignment in a “backwards way.”

@Arctic

which like. very clearly contradicts his reasoning for voting seth being to stop him being the leading wagon. even for purposes of analysis, if the vote was made for that reason then you do care about early wagons. so there you have magnus pretending that he doesn’t care about early game wagons to hide the fact that his vote on arete was misplaced, and ultimately comes from a place of agenda in conjunction with his egging on of seth in his arete scumread

He wasn’t really egging Seth with his sr on Arete and didn’t seem to have much of a strong opinion there. He also went with it on Arete because he decided to follow Zorvo but didn’t encourage “Zorvo’s” read on Arete. I will say tho that his vote there was not wanting Zorvo to be an “early wagon” and he clarified earlier that he didn’t want to follow Zorvo onto Arete until realizing realizing he was “tied” for top wagons. Which I do admit is a bit of a contradictory, but I don’t see how it’s condemning as he explained it was a “habit of his in the past”?

@Arctic

but when it comes to it, the amount of back and forths magnus had with me and arete clearly indicate that he was more invested in the read than just “seeing what sticks” because his reasons for scumreading me were disputed several times, and he only came out with this post after his reasons had been demonstrably disproven

To be fair, he did explain certain parts where he realized he was potentially misunderstanding when quoting the earlier wagons and how he felt around there. He just seems like he wanted the “read to be true” and pointed where he felt like he had problems within your approach/intentions. And I do feel like his explanation/playstyle lines up with how he was forming reads.

@Arctic

he implies that prisma asking for his opinion on them means they are implying he is town, which would contradict prisma’s wolfread on them. but this ignores the very likely possibility that prisma asked this to get a read on magnus from his response, which is once again ascribing motivations on someone to present their posts as wolfy when they really aren’t, in a similar way he did to me.

He was saying that Prisma cared about his read on him when analyzing how Prisma didn’t seem to care about Arete. He wasn’t saying that Prisma’s wolfread on them is what would “make Magnus town in a world where Prisma is mafia” but rather how he was caring about a sr on his slot versus his lack of focus on other slots.

@Arctic

this is such a very clear reach, when several players also ignored seth’s case for the simple fact that most people find it to be unconvincing, so saying this implicates prisma specifically does not make any sense. and it’s once again arisen due to seth’s initial read based on the same thing. that makes it worse. it doesn’t even have an original basis - it’s a second-hand take and it’s designed to spur on seth rather than move the game forward

He also later after this clarified this through looking through an “unbiased lens” as how Prisma would not have read/seen the case. It’s not like he was dead set on this either from what I saw after.

@Arctic

lastly, treatment of prisma. this has mostly been encompassed in the treatment of arete section, because the whole point is that the preflip read was ultimately pushed way further than it should have ever gone. the premise for his read was that because prisma refused to vote arete after seth showed his case to them, prisma and arete are w/w.

He was more focused on Prisma’s interactions and his possible associations and though he had a tr on Arete, he was focused on how Prisma acted around certain slots and was forming an “independent read there” especially with his attention to certain slots.

@Arctic

the tl;dr - magnus has been playing the game by relying on the reads of other players, egging them on in place of playing his own game, while pushing others for disingenuous reasons and preflips, ascribing motivations to justify agenda’d pushes, and has demonstrated a wolf perspective on numerous occasions

I can see the potential “wolf perspective” slips, but I haven’t seen where he really eggs on other’s cases especially when he didn’t really push Zorvo’s case on Arete and hasn’t really egged on other’s scum cases. He did point out where he could be misunderstanding certain viewpoints esp with ur read/treatment on May originally. I felt that his read on Prisma was analzying his differing actions/approach to certain slots and noticed certain contradictions in terms of his voting patterns which didn’t feel agenda-y, since he wasn’t fully pushing for Prisma to die.