Bland & Flavorless Mountainous 15er - Mafia Winnered

[Zorvo]

BTW if May gets executed and flips town you guys almost instantly lose btw.

So I wouldn’t execute May today.

[Prisma101]

@Zorvo

Magnus sheeped me, gets sus for it and so do these two.
Magnus got miss executed and flipped town.
So these 2 are automatically town, case closed!

it doesnt work like that

[otterpopd]

@Zorvo

you guys

uh. who? and why are you not including yourself in town?

[otterpopd]

@Arogame123

Who’s the town read?

well it WAS Zorvo before i read their last post, due to being pretty active and pushing susses. Now I dunno. It looks like a wolfslip to me and I’d like an explanation

[otterpopd]

@Arctic

in reality i feel like if the wagons were v/v then wolves are actually more likely to be on people vanity voting than either of the wagons

agreed tbh

[Prisma101]

@otterpopd

why are you not including yourself in town?

it is odd

[otterpopd]

@Arctic

@otterpopd tell me, do you think arete and zorvo can be w/w, if so why?
otherwise, who is more likely to be mafia?

i’m not invested in them as a pair but i am now individually sus of both, i think.

[Lemonfairy]

waiting for someone to push me so I can OMGUS

[Lemonfairy]

no one?
see y’all tomorrow

[Arete]

hirete

@Arogame123

I was also wondering if you could discuss about my thoughts/read on Eliza and how do you feel about her currently?

I agree with feeling that some of her reads are confident to a level that’s inconsistent with her actual reasons

like I said the last time Eliza came up I’m conflicted on her slot and she hasn’t done like anything since I said that so

@Arogame123

I also realized that on the Magnus wagon: you, Zorvo, Otter, Prisma, and Arctic. If you do believe it’s not pure on the wagon, who do you believe is the likeliest to be mafia on that wagon?

Otter because I have at least weak reasons to townread everyone else on the wagon and don’t really have reasons to townread them

(but also I don’t have particularly strong reasons to think that wagon is wolfier than random chance)

@Prisma101

i dunno ig neutral but i dont think thats an option

this has gotta just be town right

@Prisma101

Because in every “we must vote out one of these people” i have been an option and since otter has a lot of votes if i change now or even later to vote otter it will look like im just trying to get rid of as many people as possible

I plan to change my vote if anything says otter is mafia more than what has been provided

this is not uncontroversial within the ‘people who argue about fm strategy’ community but imo if you’re town it’s better to just try to be right rather than focus on not being misexe’d, like yes obviously getting misexe’d sucks but you shouldn’t not vote people that you think are evil because of it

@Arogame123

Otter/Prisma are not w/w (not partners) since Prisma is self-conscious about not wanting to go onto Otter because “he is afraid it’s viewed as getting rid of as many people as possible.” But if they were partners, Prisma would know that Otter is mafia and therefore wouldn’t be as afraid voting there or be afraid of looking “opportunistic.”

also this is a good take

@Arogame123

Let’s try an exercise, I’d like @Arete @Prisma101 @Arctic @Zorvo and @otterpopd to tell me that if Magnus’s wagon contains at least one mafia, who do you believe is likeliest to be mafia on that wagon with you?

(see above)

@Arogame123

Likewise, there is guaranteed at least one town on the wagon from your pov as well, so who do you believe is the likeliest to be town on that wagon with you?

Zorvo, him incessantly tunnelling villagers in contradiction to all evidence including him being literally factually wrong is pretty much exactly what I expect from him as town and I’m not sure if he could do it so unwaveringly as scum (+ he seemed genuinely worried yesterday that if I flipped wolf people would think we were partners, as wolf he would know that wasn’t true and not need to worry about it)

@Prisma101

There is no confirmation that we are all partners or anything just a “if im right about one im right about them all”

think Prisma is genuinely scared here about being paired with me/Arctic if one of us flips wolf

would ~lock this as town if Arctic flips V [would maybe give it another glance if Arctic turns out to be a wolf]

@Arctic

i feel like he’s capable of tunneling a villager as a wolf lol

wait why are you townreading him then

@Arctic

this is also because the last game i played with him, he spent day 1 and part of day 2 playing eternal wallpost catchup as a wolf, but this game he’s felt more participatory and involved in the realtime discussion.

@Arctic

there’s only been just above 200 posts this phase

imo the second thing is fully sufficient to explain the first thing regardless of Aro’s alignment lol

@Zorvo

Magnus never voted them cause they were confident in Arete being a wolf like I was

…lmao

Magnus was extremely open about not scumreading me and, even at EoD, just voting me for “info”

@Lemonfairy

sheep Zorvo

@Lemonfairy

(to be clear I am asking this to evaluate your own thought process, not as a comment on the specific read)

do you generally find Zorvo to be an accurate source of reads? can you give examples of the specific games that gave you that impression?

@otterpopd

Arete. I’ve explained this before, towards the beginning of the day.

…okay but your explanation relied on a misinterpretation of my posts and you never addressed this when I pointed it out? @otterpopd

@Zorvo

That’s it Phraze and Lemonfairy are lock town.

Magnus sheeped me, gets sus for it and so do these two.
Magnus got miss executed and flipped town.
So these 2 are automatically town, case closed!

ah yes I’m sure that “locktowning people who sheep your reads” is definitely going to create good incentives and not make it trivially easy for people to pocket you (this is sarcasm)

[otterpopd]

trying to form some reads before I go to bed for the night.

trust: Aro (pushing activity) Prisma (seems genuinely struggling to keep up)
distrust: Arete (D1 plays trying to control the vote), Zorvo (forcing themself into town leader position, trying to control town, earlier slip), May (Nothing in particular, small things adding up. Could be nothing tbh) Lemonfairy (generally doesn’t seem to be paying attention or contributing. Less content than me, which is impressive tbh. Could be oblivious villager, could be wolf laying low.)
VOTE: Zorvo

[otterpopd]

Overall i get the worst vibes from Zorvo atm. I’m still sus of arete but ive liked them more today.

[otterpopd]

@Arete

@otterpopd

Arete. I’ve explained this before, towards the beginning of the day.

…okay but your explanation relied on a misinterpretation of my posts and you never addressed this when I pointed it out? @otterpopd

Sorry, I must’ve missed this?

[Arete]

@otterpopd

Arete (D1 plays trying to control the vote)

…can you quote examples of this

imo I didn’t do this but I’m not sure if this is ‘different interpretations of the same actions’ or ‘you making things up’

[Arete]

@otterpopd

I’m a bit sus of you for trying to get magnus off of you and onto me

@Arete

fwiw I wasn’t trying to get him to vote you, when I said he wasn’t self-pressing at 5-4 wagons the thing I was implying was that if he was a wolf and you were town, he could vote at the last minute to tie the wagons up and have a 50% chance of not dying

hope that clears things up

(I was totally trying to get him off of me, full cop to that, I stand by my position that ‘voting people you think are town at EoD’ is not a good strategy as town)

[mollylikesorigami]

@Arctic

do you think what you said about Arete means anything for their alignment

i agree with what you’re saying on a level 0 read but i think the perspective of “X is solving from a world where i’m a villager” is something i find wolves don’t use very often beyond the basic “you’re tmi’ing me town” but this felt significantly more fleshed out than that

i mean i don’t think it’s that different, and that’s part of my concern

it felt to some degree like a shoehorned “i’m paranoid of how people are treating me because i’m town”, where i think it’s easier to see eliza’s read and think “i could make this pushable” as a wolf than it is to see it and think “i should actually be wary of this” as town

[otterpopd]

@Arete

@otterpopd

Arete (D1 plays trying to control the vote)

…can you quote examples of this

imo I didn’t do this but I’m not sure if this is ‘different interpretations of the same actions’ or ‘you making things up’

I didn’t know how else to describe trying to get magnus to vote me. is that what sheeping is? it’t definitely not the most severe, as evidenced by the fact that I, y’know, switched off.

[otterpopd]

Ohhhhh I did see this but i forgot about it. Yeah, makes sense

[mollylikesorigami]

@Arete

@mollylikesorigami

@Arete

@ElizaThePsycho

@Arete

reason I ask is that you’ve been making reads that semi-rely on me being town without really expressing anything like that

i have?

shading Otter for sheeping Zorvo onto me only makes sense if you think I’m a villager! (or I guess if you think it’s a really incompetent bus)

+ you said you expected me to die overnight, and that the Neon kill is probably Zorvo’s fault, implying that either you think Zorvo is a wolf who pushed for a weird nightkill, or that Zorvo is being kept alive to tunnel me (I was pretty sure you meant the second one based on the fact that you didn’t seem to be pushing Zorvo)

hi arete

if i were better rested, maybe i’d have a more polite word for this

but this seems like a bizarrely dense thing to say lol

have you never seen someone, for example, call a push opportunistic, without thinking the person being pushed is necessarily town?

in my dialect opportunism specifically implies a wolf pushing a nonwolf, obviously sometimes people can make reads like that about pushes on people they don’t have a strong read on but in conjunction with her other posts today which were also making a similar assumption it seemed notable (although I was misinterpreting one of them)

+ Eliza hasn’t really reacted to or made a read based on my push of her whatsoever, most villagers tend to subconsciously omgus a little bit

okay, but “only makes sense if you think i’m a villager” certainly seems like a stronger statement than what you’re saying here lol

it’s weird because i think i’d be with arctic on it without that line alone tbh, i didn’t think too hard about the second half of your post last night lmao. the other observations there seem like the kinds of things villagers pick up on unconsciously when they’re said about themselves more than wolves do, and it makes it look like there’s an unsettling ~trend~. it’s just that that line feels bloodthirsty in a way, like you wanna make a push no matter the content.

so basically you said a towny thing in a wolfy way

i feel like i’m talking about this a lot more than i actually care about it now

[Zorvo]

@otterpopd

@Zorvo

you guys

uh. who? and why are you not including yourself in town?

I’m not including me because I’ll most likely die if you guys ML May.