Bland & Flavorless Mountainous 15er - Mafia Winnered

[Arogame123]

Has Aleph said anything today btw? I can’t remember their presence if they had done anything lol

[May]

Alright, I need to follow the advice of those who came before me: when you can’t do analysis, ask questions.

Here’s what I have for now as not to be overwhelming - I’ll likely do some follow-ups off this.

1. Who does everyone think is most likely to be nightkilled tonight?
2. Which of the current players with wagons would you most want executed by the EoD?
3. Which of the current players without wagons would you most want executed by EoD?
4. Are you sus? Why or why not?

[May]

Anyone can and should answer these BTW. If you’re in thread and specifically avoid answering them I will assume you’re scum trying to avoid providing content.

[Jarek]

@May

• Who does everyone think is most likely to be nightkilled tonight?
• Which of the current players with wagons would you most want executed by the EoD?
• Which of the current players without wagons would you most want executed by EoD?
• Are you sus? Why or why not?

1. Not answering that I’m not painting targets on peoples backs let the wolves choose who they choose without influence from town.
2. For me, it’s you, because of my read. But I’m not tunelling my read because I was hella wrong on aro because now I think aro is town so you can prove yourself too if you try hard enough.
   3.Prisma. Some weird behaviour that could be chalked up to being new could be chalked up to being a wolf that just makes me want to resolve it.
3. Tabbyslime.

[Lemonfairy]

I’ll start with May b/c they have the least number of posts

@May

Awesome. Random Question Stage time

first post is not a prepared post but answers to Arete’s RQS
probably NAI but slight scum if I had to lean it either way

@May

If I’m going to irrelevantpost here, I may as well put something actually game-related into it, so let’s do just that. VOTE: Eliza’s answers to the Random Question Stage were incredibly brief in a way that reads as an attempt to avoid putting too much readable content out there earlygame as a wolf. Sure, she tends to be a concise person in general, something I can only aspire toward, but combined with her opener, it just strikes me as odd.

this feels like one of May’s fake votes/RTs but it’s not as showy as usual

@May

There’s nothing in particular wrong with her opener, it’s just also very concise.

hmmm

@May

Successful.

yeah, looks like the RT was what they were doing

@May

When I played with him as wolf in Starcraft, he sure stuck around in thread, talked, and noted some reads down, but it didn’t feel like he was an active participant in the game trying to provoke anything, just an observer making… well, observations, and seeing if he could get any suspicions to stick on someone.

Because of that stark difference in playstyle, and the fact that doing incomprehensible shit for reactions is townie no matter who’s doing it, I soft townread him for now, though given I was suspecting him on and off all game specifically because I noticed this tell, it’s not anything definitive; I think that, upon randing wolf after Starcraft, Zorvo’d specifically avoid repeating the exact tells he got called out on in that game - people are learning, changing beings, and so a distinctive opposite of someone’s last wolfgame can also be a tell.

think I like this Zorvo read
quite nuanced

there isn’t really a conclusion but it’s early game and the extra meta info is nice
I think May would be capable of making posts like this as wolf too but I’ve never seen them wolf so I’ll store this thought away somewhere for now

@May

I think that, if there’s wolves in thread right now, at least one is probably trying to look like a bit of a tryhard. That probably means Zorvo, who I currently TR, Atlas, and Arete. For the sake of beautiful, wonderful, fleeting earlygame confidence, I will discount the possibility of Zorvo being a wolf. I wouldn’t go as far to call the latter two not W/W, it’s entirely possible IMO, but I think if they are, the third wolf probably hasn’t posted yet? Or is Phraze.

Out of the two, I think Arete is the more likely wolf, as their opening Q&A was free “content” without content and Arctic is engaging with my earlygame reads exactly how I want people to - giving proper reactions to them, pushing others to interact with them, that sort of thing. That’s an easy pocket, so Arctic’s town for now. I don’t know why the brain machine won’t give Arete the same credit for doing something quite similar, but it won’t, so that’s how things are.

actually kind of ok
I can see this from town
especially the way they don’t TR Arete despite acknowledging Arete did something similar to Arctic is something I’d read as town, esp. since I don’t have much confidence reading May tonally or from progression

idk how easy it’d be for May to fake this as wolf (probably very easy) but I’m ok calling the slot town (at least for now)

@May

You can’t just throw words at people as soon as they enter the thread and expect it to work.

Here’s a start: hi, @Prisma101, it’s earlygame and none of us know what the hell we’re talking about so we’re all padding everything with lots of paragraphs and hoping people don’t notice it’s all an act. Don’t worry about it. All of this will be forgotten soon enough.

And you can vote using the hammer button in the post formatting options or by using [v]USERNAME[/ v] tags (without the space).

this is fine
not too chummy or awkward

@May

I’ll do you one better, I’ve rolled town for every single longform mafia game I’ve played . That’s… god knows how many at this point, it’s been a while since I’ve counted, at least fifteen.

I need to see May post a paragraph about how much they fear randing wolf to be sure they’re town (for legal purposes, I am half-joking)

@May

I’ve learned I can’t rely on that last bit that much around here - I’ve been voted out as town twice now, and it has not helped my feelings of invincibility (though they’re still very much present).

fun fact: I’ve only ever been voted out as town during endgame
so I either just survive forever (usually the case) or I get NK’d (which is thankfully happening more often nowadays)

oh I also got vigged once when I first started playing lol

@May

Hey Neon, no chance you’re feeling a bit annoyed about randing wolf, and that’s coming across in how you communicate, right? That wouldn’t be the source? Just a thought. It’s not something that was notably present in your opening Starcraft posts, but maybe twice in a row makes it more frustrating… I’d certainly not be happy, that’s for sure.

I wonder who that would indicate partnership with; certainly a train of thought I’d be interested in pursuing if I find further evidence, if only because judging who in the thread is most annoying “for social deduction purposes” sounds hilarious (in theory, probably not in practice).

not sure what to make of this?
kind of a gentle nudge to Neon, I’d lean more town than scum

–
I think I’m going to end it here with May’s ISO b/c I don’t think I’d be able to gain anything more wrt to May’s even if I read more (I also won’t have time to do other ISOs)
I feel comfortable enough placing a TR here

[May]

Thank you for responding, this will be added to my memory banks and processed at a later date.

@Jarek

1. Not answering that I’m not painting targets on peoples backs let the wolves choose who they choose without influence from town.

Awww why not… it’s so epic. It’s such a good question. I was so proud of myself for coming up with it.

Listen, the wolves are going to nightkill who they’re going to nightkill. I don’t think there’s really any great insight you could have that would paint a target on someone’s back; they and they alone know who’s good to shoot.

What it does help me learn is who you think is acting the most blatantly townie, something that is really helpful for my reads on both you and the rest of thread! It’s both a question that’s really easy to answer with base instinct, I think everyone keeps it at least somewhat in mind, and one that provides a lot of depth of “who does this person think is townie, who do they think others think is townie, what kind of decisions do they think the wolves are making”…

Influencing the nightkills is cool and epic anyway. The wolves, independently, will probably make good and beneficial choices to their wolfteam. Put terrible ideas in their heads.

@Jarek

2. For me, it’s you, because of my read. But I’m not tunelling my read because I was hella wrong on aro because now I think aro is town so you can prove yourself too if you try hard enough.

Could you elaborate a bit more on the source of the change of your read on Aro? I haven’t been following thread too closely due to illnesses and stressors, so having that refresher would be nice.

@Jarek

3. Prisma. Some weird behaviour that could be chalked up to being new could be chalked up to being a wolf that just makes me want to resolve it.

I know you say you don’t like going three steps ahead, but imagine Prisma is executed, and does flip wolf, and I die tonight. What do you go to D3 thinking? Who would you keep your eyes on in terms of executions? You don’t have to build a perfect case or anything, just, like… what would your instincts be in that scenario?

If you’re feeling extra tryhard, you could even answer the same question but for Prisma flipping town.

@Jarek

4. Tabbyslime.

That one doesn’t increment the counter.

[Lemonfairy]

@May

Here’s what I have for now as not to be overwhelming - I’ll likely do some follow-ups off this.

1. Who does everyone think is most likely to be nightkilled tonight?
2. Which of the current players with wagons would you most want executed by the EoD?
3. Which of the current players without wagons would you most want executed by EoD?
4. Are you sus? Why or why not?

1. Arete/Arctic if they’re town, maybe Aro b/c I feel like their posts have gotten considerably more… what’s the word…stronk?
2. Prisma lol
3. Aleph? and/or one of Arete/Arctic/Aro - I have no idea and I really need to look into them more but I’m stuck doing ISOs on people with wagons + Arete
4. I’m not sus, I’m lemon

[Zorvo]

@Arogame123

I mean they did push on Magnus yesterday

Incorrect.
They joined in on an already existing push.

[Zorvo]

@Lemonfairy

but I will say I’m not really liking all this talking down of people’s skill level and dismissing reads b/c of it

I’m pretty sure it’s all been done in regards to me?
That’s why I said I didn’t like the disrespect.

Did someone say it to someone else as well?

[Arogame123]

Wait why do you include arête/arctic in question 3 as well? Don’t u expect them to die/tr them?!

[Lemonfairy]

was phrasing it more generally but yes, majority of it is towards you from what I can see

[mollylikesorigami]

i’m confused, none of this is about otter?

[Arogame123]

But they were a part of casing Magnus and advocated that they wanted Magnus is my point.

[Zorvo]

@May

• Who does everyone think is most likely to be nightkilled tonight?
• Which of the current players with wagons would you most want executed by the EoD?
• Which of the current players without wagons would you most want executed by EoD?
• Are you sus? Why or why not?

1)You or Aro
2)If Arete is being voted then him, if not then Eliza.
3)Arete if no Wagon, other then that maybe Arctic but not sure.
4)Eh. Maybe? But I don’t really care.

[Arogame123]

Oh, I talked about otter and Eliza in separate posts.

I remember you were more interested in Eliza at the time.

[mollylikesorigami]

i was asking you about otter and not eliza lol

[May]

@Lemonfairy

1. Arete/Arctic if they’re town, maybe Aro b/c I feel like their posts have gotten considerably more… what’s the word…stronk?

What do you think an Arete nightkill would say about the gamestate, do you think? Would that significantly change any particular reads of yours? Same goes for an Arctic or Aro nightkill.

@Lemonfairy

2. Prisma lol

Why do you think Prisma’s currently not a wagon, given so many people appear to wolfread them? Do you think that’s influenced by wolves?

@Lemonfairy

3. Aleph? and/or one of Arete/Arctic/Aro - I have no idea and I really need to look into them more but I’m stuck doing ISOs on people with wagons + Arete

Have fun in the iso mines. I’ll be asking epic questions.

@Lemonfairy

4. I’m not sus, I’m lemon

You heard it here first, Lemon is not sus, she’s Lemon.

[Zorvo]

@Arogame123

Wait why do you include arête/arctic in question 3 as well? Don’t u expect them to die/tr them?!

They voted Arete…
Unless I’m mistaken.

Which concludes a wolf read.

[Lemonfairy]

tinfoil/paranoia + you’re loud-ish voices and I’m not sure I like any of the current wagons + WIFOM for scum in case any of you are town

perfect plan

[Zorvo]

@Arogame123

But they were a part of casing Magnus and advocated that they wanted Magnus is my point.

Yes it was done after other pushes on Magnus, main pusher to note was Arctic.