Cookie Thread Act 1: A Cookie in Time

the fun thing about this book is that literally nothing interesting happens but you have no idea what happened in the past which is where the tension comes from

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alright, I went and did the same thing for all completed MU games that started in 2022 or 2023 (excluding turbos)

my spreadsheet is here

high level results:

  • overall the town winrate on MU during this time period was about 42%
  • this goes up to 46% if you exclude champs/hydra events/subforums and up to 53% if you exclude mashes and light games
  • the town winrate when town was executed day 1 was about 35%. when mafia was executed day 1, this rose to about 55%. this does not support the ‘killing scum day 1 is bad’ theory.

Overall MU Winrates:
Town: ~42% (62/146)
Mafia: ~55% (80/146)
Draw: ~3% (4/146)

MU Winrates (minus champs/hydra event/subforums)
Town: ~46% (53/116)
Mafia: ~51% (59/116)
Draw: ~3% (4/116)

MU Winrates (minus champs/hydra event/subforums/mashes/light games)

Town: ~53% (40/76)
Mafia: ~43% (33/76)
Draw: ~4% (3/76)

MU Winrates (all game types, town is executed day 1):
Town: ~35% (33/93)
Mafia: ~61% (57/93)
Draw: ~3% (3/93)

MU Winrates (all game types, mafia is executed day 1):
Town: ~55% (27/49)
Mafia: ~43% (21/49)
Draw: ~2% (1/49)

MU Winrates (all game types, no one is executed day 1):
Town: ~33% (1/3)
Mafia: ~67% (2/3)

MU Winrates (all game types, a villager and a mafia are both executed simultaneously at EoD1):
Town: 1/1 (100%)

I may have missed other examples of this type.

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for comparison the overall FoL town winrate is about 23%

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we reached the same conclusion we already had

now what

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good question

maybe we could make a thread about it

an ‘initiative,’ you could call it

you know, to improve townplay on the site

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can we get one that doesn’t read like a 12 step “how to not get your pants stuck in the ceiling fan for dummies” guide

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jeez
it sure does suck to remember someone who you respect state a negative opinion on something you share the opinion on, yet still engage with

Happy Valentine’s Day.

That’s way too low
Mafiascum uses town sized setups to increase their town rates iirc

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Town sized?

Like the entire game takes place across a town? I’m not sure how that helps increase winrates but sure

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now that I think about it I noticed a stark decrease in villager terminology which may correlate to town win rate decreasing

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we haven’t tried whirlpool terminology either

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wtf. I hate this.

Fo7AUjYWAAAEISw

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also happy Woad Day

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have u seen the jan misali video about paradoxes if u hate this youll probably hate that

happy woah day

oh no, videos

(no)

id link it but im at school

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Do you hate that there is such a paradox itself? Or do you hate reading such discussions about it and consider it dry or confusing? Or something else?

I hadn’t heard of this particular paradox before, but I understand it and think it sounds quite interesting actually. :ayaya: Though I can imagine reading it this way might be somewhat dull. :ayaya:

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