I also realized that I miscleared not one but two people that are now dead
Prophy and Arctic.
I also realized that I miscleared not one but two people that are now dead
Prophy and Arctic.
Also don’t remember much from mansnicks either. Probably not for a good reason.
I didn’t follow the discussion when I was on my work
Ditto.
like i said
emilia being skated around implies that wolves wanted them alive despite how obvious they are as a wolf
meaning mech strong
Then you should have read discussion before shooting anyone.
No…because that window is closing
And I am impulsive on what I read
You can always wait for the next ITA window.
With a hit between 3rd and 4th - the moon argues
Ngl Frost’s ITA sucks.
Maybe next time on wednesday, if I am still alive
well the moony is a loony
Had these notes made overnight.
DO NOT POST - FAM2 Day 1 Thread - #6168 by FAMHost
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Haven’t read much into Blizer but the fact that Sulit was KP means that unless the CW was something like a dayvig then it would be optimal for wolves to save her.
Wagon movement when it came to starting CWs against Sulit means that at EoD wolves probably tried to save her. Sulit’s wagon was not exactly stale and did have multiple CWs throughout the day so I’ll look into them later on. Sulit trying to get out of the lynch by fakeclaiming desperado only furthers this, tbh.
Point of no return was between posts 5948-5983. Past this the wolves probably just said fuck-it and let Sulit die.
Alice (#3824); Blizer (#3844); catbae (#3685); CRichardFortressLies (#3905); Marshal (#4368); nightingale (#4486); Wazza (#4464)
Chloe (#5525); Hippopablompoyeetus (#5519); Kyubey (#5644); NANOOK (#5620); nutella (#5605)
Alice (#3824); Blizer (#3844); Cape90 (#6397); catbae (#3685); Chloe (#6141); CRichardFortressLies (#3905); nightingale (#4486); nutella (#6315); Outedwolf (#5558); Ruby (#6125); Wazza (#4464)
Cape90, Chloe, Ruby, and Nut swapped their votes to Sulit after post #5983. Less worried about Chloe given that she’s within my strongest TRs but yeah.
Ruby went No Vote->Sulit. Probably the less bad-looking vote here being that this vote was one of the more early votes, tbh.
Nutella went Blizer->Sulit, which is kind of ??? considering how she was in the CW until Sulit’s fate was kind of sealed being that her vote was after Chloe returning to the wagon and Ruby’s
Cape90 went Molly->Sulit. IMHO if there’s a busser then it’s most likely to be Cape being that his vote’s pretty much one of the less meaningful ones and I’ve already had him in my sights.
More of an aside, but Outedwolf’s vote now that was counted is very clearing being that being like the 7th/8th vote then he pretty much damned any other attempts to CFD from Sulit.
DO NOT POST - FAM2 Day 1 Thread - #812 by sulit
I’d say this looks more like TMI on Italy V rather than calling a partner villagery, tbh. Wolves don’t townread their partners over meh posts like what Italy made.
DO NOT POST - FAM2 Day 1 Thread - #847 by sulit
Good for Swedish, tbh. This feels less significant than the read on Italy as Swedish actually posted things worth of being townread, but with this and Wisdom’s interactions with him he so far has had decent interactionswith flipped wolves.
DO NOT POST - FAM2 Day 1 Thread - #1043 by sulit
Looks fake as hell since Litten’s identity is on the playerlist, tbh. Wouldn’t really clear Litten of not being W/W with sulit and I think it actually looks worse for him since I’ve frequently see wolves try to feign ignorance when it comes to their partner’s alt identities to look unaligned.
DO NOT POST - FAM2 Day 1 Thread - #3795 by sulit
Probably puts them unaligned with Eevee? Like whenever I see wolves post shit like “give me the case on X” it’s usually on a villager.
DO NOT POST - FAM2 Day 1 Thread - #3999 by sulit
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DO NOT POST - FAM2 Day 1 Thread - #4023 by sulit
I think this is a very solid good look for Wazza, tbh. Whenever struggling wolves like Sulit do this sort of wallposts they’re generally doing it on villagers for fear of spewing too much on their partners. That and with Wazza being one of the sealing votes on Sulit makes them look very unaligned.
DO NOT POST - FAM2 Day 1 Thread - #5783 by sulit
DO NOT POST - FAM2 Day 1 Thread - #5950 by sulit
Eh, not liking these posts irt Blizer, tbh. The first one feels like it’s Sulit trying to avoid giving a read on a partner through claiming to not know their ranges and the second one seems to be her trying to find an excuse to self-pres. Like, wagonomics-wise Blizer looks pretty good but Sulit’s interactions towards Bliz gives me some corcern.
DO NOT POST - FAM2 Day 1 Thread - #6237 by sulit
DO NOT POST - FAM2 Day 1 Thread - #6357 by sulit
Post on Nut feels like bleh, tbh. She never really mentioned nor interacted with Nut until now and the read feels extremely generic. Has shades of it being a distancing attempt, tbh.
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Litten did a pretty good summary of it D2. Would check there if needed.
Alice - Obviously.
Marluxion - Opening reads on Arctic and Italy were weird, but has improved a lot since then, tbh. p2523 is still kind of WTF-y being that Arctic was a fairly dynamic wolf back in TvB. Thing is that I feel like despite Marl’s takes being kind of bad here it’s not something I can’t see V!Marl not doing since his takes back in TvB was actually the reason why I incorrectly SR’d him. Re-reading the boat thread from p135 actually reinforces my view of this read, tbh. I don’t think W!Marl would just shade his UTR nightvig and ask PKR to kill her when he himself was under suspicion. Plus, Marl is actually top-posting right now where he has a volume problem when he wolves, so I’m pretty safe with this slot. In addition, Proph’s flip pretty much seals the deal for me irt Marl.
Nightingale - Liking p1693. From experience with her, she doesn’t really seem to have this kind of paranoia when wolfing so this seems to be a good sign, and p4120 also solidifies this being that this paranoia looks to be fairly consistest. I’m also vibing with p1724, tbh. Also pretty much buried Proph d2. This slot’s just town.
CRich - Main concern with this slot boils down to the lack of buildup with his argument with Wisdom, but keeping in mind that he tends to be OMGUS-y as either alignment then I don’t think this should impact my read this much. Forgot what exactly I was TR’ing CRich for earlier but it was kind of tonal/meta based as his posts were fairly free-flowing when as a wolf he feels more stuntent. Though aside from the boats event, his later posts irt Wisdom voting him feels more like he got salty because a wolf tried to misyeet him instead of him trying to LAMIST it for towncred. Actually, scratch that. Just lock CRich in as Wisdom’s reaction towards the fight seems legit from this post p2865, tbh. CRich had like the second highest postcount d2 and has been taking a lot of initiative here, which is not something I see he do as a wolf. Conviction on Arctic also seems fairly strong. Like, I’m not as certain on CRich now as before since CRich’s votes and shots have been meh, but he’s still likely V.
PKR - Mostly from the boats event. It’d be nonsense to not save your KP over Marl who was being pushed by a shit-ton of people, tbh. Only concern I have with him is that he hasn’t really bothered to push anyone and is kind of just floating in the thread akin to his wolfplay in Astand’s game and Warrior Cats. Though I feel like PKR’s going to be a matter to deal with late-game if it comes to that. Nothing really stood out D2, tbh. Shot on Proph wasn’t as AI since it was kind of a belated shot, but eh.
Outedwolf - Originally had at Dark Green due to sealing Sulit’s lynch over Blizer but on re-reading the EoD it’s not really as a good look as I thought. They voted at p5558 when the wagon was like 6/7-4 so it’s not as if being the 7/8th vote mattered much. Actually this vote doesn’t look as good as I originally thought. Most recent mention that they did irt Sulit was in p5529 so the vote’s not really that clearing. Actually this post is kind of villagery p6043 as it kind of fits that Outed looks more like a villager that’s out of time rather than a busser, tbh. I’ll keep my eye on this slot, tbh. Shot Proph in the first round when there was a more permissive shot-list and also had lead-up to the shot in p372. Like, probably just a villager from voting patterns+shots.
gorta - Confidence on his read on me seems good sign, but at the same time I didn’t really get any pings from him either way. Kind of in the same boat as Frost as I feel like delegating reading him to other people for now. Concern on his slot kind of comes with the fact that he really didn’t try to read me at all though I guess I can attribute this to my relatively low volume d1 due to IRL. p2160, p2163, and p2310 are a good lead-up to the Demisha shoot, tbh. Looks less like bussing and has a natural-ish, tbh. I feel like this is my least certain of the certain category.
Eliza - Very sure of this read, tbh. Originally I had a threadread on them as it felt like a lot of people were TR’ing them for very flimsy reasons without any pushback which tends to indicate that they’re more likely V due to wolves threadspeewing them due to TMI. Though later on their posts look fairly natural being that rather than freezing as Sulit was wagoned they just started pushing the Taffy vanity wagon in a carefree manner as in p6215 which indicates that they probably don’t have TMI on Sulit and were just doing their own shit. Eliza’s been extremely consistent on Taffy and has 140+ posts this day in a mash. Yeah, just lock this in
Wazza - They seem unaligned with Sulit as per her spew above and they could have likely saved wolf KP if they had voted Blizer instead of her d1. Activity going from “I’m gonna slank for the first 3 days” to being one of the top 25% posters D2 makes this very likely V. Using a silent dayvig on a wolf just makes this lock V, tbh. Don’t ever reconsider unless it’s something like XyLo or whatever.
ZoneQ11 - As I said before, the mech on p531 looks like it’s more likely a villa trying to optimally use their role as a wolf would probably just ask their buddies. Plus on a backread p2545 kind of feels like a fairly free-flowing read despite that Zone doesn’t really have a lot of non-mech content. Eh, shot on AT while Proph was alive’s kind of bleh. Zone has kind of fallen for me, tbh. I really see nothing that reinforced d1’s read on him and I’ll see how this slot further develops.
Beancat - SR’ing WW just for being WW at p3423 sounds like something V!Bean would do, tbh. Though I’m kind of concerned about the lack of follow-up to their wolfreads as they kind of just meme-vote the host and call it a day. As I said in the day before, p4772 is the quintessential “V!Bean white knights leading wagons for bad reasons and ends up defending a wolf.” Only thing that’s niggling me is that they really haven’t voted anyone or tried to shift the wagons which makes everything here feels performative. Like, back in AHiT Cop 13’er Bean tried to shift the wagon from Emilia to Vulgard while here she’s kind of doing nothing. Shooting a wolf with their dayvig bumps this up to likely V. Wouldn’t lock them in yet as their shot was silent and Whysper was a dead wolf walking so the chance of being a towncred grab still exists. Also another reason of concern with this slot would be shoot AT over Proph and then asked to shoot Cape over Proph in p3561.
Like, I think bean’s likely V but some red flags irt her wolfsiding and conviction in her reads still exist so I’m not going to lock this in so early.
NANOOK - There really isn’t anything going for him except maybe for the brazeness in p1839 kind feels villagery. Most concerns about him that I have basically boils down to him kind of being bland like oatmeal and with his vote nearly saving wolf KP. Caveat here is that I don’t think Nanook’s ever W/W with Nutella as their dynamics feel like either an oblivious V!Nanook sheeping a W!Nutelle they misread or W!Nanook sheeping V!Nutella so he is less accountable to bad votes/shots. Shot on Cape over Proph was bleh. Thing is that Proph shot Nanook while Proph himself was in the shotlists while Proph wasn’t in a good position to bus a mate, so yeah.
FrostWolf - Meta-notwitshtanding, I detested Frost’s shot on AT after voting Proph, but I feel like Frost is probably a Town Tracker/Watcher/MD/Fruit Vendor. The way he asked me in p2447 kind of felt like he’s a villager that either saw someone visiting me or the person who sent the meme themselves. I don’t really think that a wolf would use their role like that. Actually, from the looks of it it seems like Maxi was the one who sent me the meme in p4797 and p4806. If I end up dead with extra kills then I’d look into Maxi, tbh.
Thepidgeonnyc - Literally hasn’t interacted with anyone and the posts are just complaining about thread length. Only actual content he has is the p125 where he just sheeps onto catbae for no reason whatsoever. Shot on Eevee at p1741 was pure willage. The Cape thing’s bleh since I expect villagers to try to save their TRs, their only TR to add, but since this is pidgeon then I don’t think it matters much regarding his alignment.
Maximus Prime - The sincerity at p5877 was kind of villagery so I’ll see what this slot will further do down the road. Not really intending on killing him rn. Exchange in p5716 looks like he did visit me. I got a meme n1 and nothing bad happened to me, so I guess that unless Maxi’s role works as like a wolf investigative or delayed killing then he should be good?
Solic - His conviction on Proph and AT look like what’s generally within his villa range. Post p2959 looks relatively unaligned with Proph. The way that Solic goes from burying him over his passiveness to agreeing with his takes to going back at pushing him over his passiveness to evaluating his claim looks fairly un-agenda-y. Wolves generally just bury their partners while clearly not bothering to evaluate their alignments, tbh. He can be town.
SDA - Found him talking and FPS’ing about his role d1 villagery. The shot on Chloe was the kind of that only comes from town. Though see what I wrote IRT Leafia below. If Leafia does flip W then there’s a very high chance that SDA is a wolf who killed Chloe being that the actual vig killed Marshal for some WTF-y reason. Frankly if our vig DID kill Marshal, then they should shoot SDA or Chloe as I don’t think that the wolves would just waste their KP on Catbae and Illwei.
Litten - Not going to put post numbers as it’s more of a general overview of his posts rather than specific microreads, but frankly I don’t see why the hell Litten’s been getting TRs. He’s really not doing anything villagery so far aside from hyperposting, which he can do as either alignment. His entire resistance towards the Sulit wagon and him not wanting to get modpeeked should sound alarm bells. My stance rn is that I’m not for killing him rn but he should never be allowed to endgame at all. Feeling more confident irt Litten due to Whysper’s flip. Though the lack of skepticism towards YBW’s claim was bleh. Oh, and for answering p5835 I said that it’s not a multiball game. As in there is only one wolf faction but I don’t think that SKs or anything of that sorts would exactly count as another faction.
Ranta - Mixture of shitposting and memes, tbfh. Tone from posts like p4459 look more in line with Emilia’s town tone where she just shitposts with a non-serious tone unlike her wolfgame in that Desperado Game or in Percy Jackson where she was just fully serious. Plus, posts like p4481 feels like your typical V!Emilia fakeclaim shitpost rather than actual wolfy shit. Only reason I’m not moving this slot up to the above one is that this is just a flimsy metaread and Emilia’s problems can be fairly easy to overcome though I’d say that this is borderline Certain Town. Post count went from 21 D1 to 35 D2. Probably a good sign for her.
Amelia - Has only 12 posts and a known slankwolf meta. Only actual game-related post was p403 and then dipped for the remainder of d1. None of their posts d2 have any meaningful interactions with anyone, tbh. ITA on GGhana’s eh. Like, if GGhana flips W then I kind of would consider Amelia to be clear-ish being that it’d be nonsensical to bus them since GGhana was not getting heat? All in all I doubt that GGhana/Amelia are actually partners.
Drinks - Didn’t really feel anything at all from reading their D1 posts which is >rand W from my experience. p2810 was a horrible post being that they’re kind of just whining about CRich’s playstyle rather than actually trying to make a call on his aligned and I really can’t see whether Drinks thinks that CRich is a wolf or not. Noticed the drop-off in their posts from ~45 to 8. which is >rand W as well. Proph also kept putting Drinks in the bottom of his readlist despite never pushing nor interacting with them, so I’d think that this is likely a hit.
Italy - Main concerns irt Italy’s slot is just the non-stop shitposting as he’s been completely detached from the game, which is usually a sign of W!Italy being that V!Italy tends to keep his shitposts to game-related things, thing is that Sulit’s comments irt Italy in p812 feel more like she was TMI’ing him V rather than not since the reason for the TR was extremely flimsy. Again, not really interacting with the game that much and the shoot on Jake was horrible, tbh. The only actual thing that Italy has going for them is sulit’s spew.
Arctic - His D1 was mostly felt more like pure analysis rather than raw aggression that he showed in TvB but p6229 reeked performativity. His D2 has a lot of shades of his wolf-play, tbh. His posts have basically turned into a one-track mind tunneling villager after villager similar to what he did in TvB where now he basically just tunneled Hippo and Cape to death while his village game has far less aggression and tends to take a very broad view of the game rather than just focus on one or two players.
GGhana - As I said d2, their posts this match have been fairly unnoticeable to the point that at times I even forget that they were in the game, tbh. He also shot Cape over Proph and his entire conversation before shooting Cape was ass being that, as I remarked in p3348 felt like he was trying to dodge accountability for taking a hero shot on a villager. I don’t think that GGhana/Amelia are partnered being that it’d make no sense for Amelia to take that night shot on him. Even if they claim to be an actual slank vig I’d still shot 'em being that Illwei was a downright terrible target to the point that I don’t think that a Mafia slank vig is out of the question.
Epitau - The way he claimed his role felt kind of towny but at the same time I have concerns about the fact that it feels kind of strong and more in-line with what we’ve seen from wolves than villagers. Like, Catbae was effectively a VT, Chloe’s role was very complex and required a second player to use, Marshal’s role was basically an ever more WTF-y day angel that, I’m a mech oracle with logs, and so on. Plus, the investigative portion of that role feels more useful to a wolf than a villager. This is a very “shoot-at-your-own-risk” shot as frankly the only reason why I’m suspecting Epitau boils down to mech which isn’t really a solid reasoning, tbh.
Leafia - Dumb read, but this is actually kind of villagery from Leafia in p1282 being that since they tend to have issue with TMI that they’d add a margin of error in the number of wolfmates they’d have. p4308 is something that I’ll keep in mind in the future. The lack of absolutism from Leafia is a good sign since it shows more uncertainty and thus less TMI. Most of her strongest reads like Hippo/CRich/Arctic are pretty much the opposite of mine so if I’m correct on those reads then I’m definitely correct on Leafia being that their TMI issues prevent them from creating confident wrong reads as a wolf. p31 was… interesting. Like, it does seem like the kind of TMI that Leafia would say, but the thing is that I doubt that we lost both Chloe and Marshal to town vigs. If SDA actually ends up flipping W and his shot claim was a gambit then Leafia would look horrid, tbh. But since I don’t think this world exists then I think that this post was actually villagery for them being that it doesn’t show TMI at all. Follow up on p40 makes them look better, but it’d still put attention on 'em if SDA flips W. Shot on p2447 is kind of bad since it kind of feels like she’s trying to put the accountability of a player that flipped V on Molly. This doesn’t really seem like it’d be a W/W relationship so I feel like they may be unaligned if either of them flip W. Litten has a point in p4892 that I missed. Whysper wanting to leave Leafia alive looks absolutely horrible especially since Whysper never really outright calls Leafia W. Not really liking Leafia frame Cape’s flip as an infolynch in p5893, tbh. Leafia’s probably my most conflicted slot rn as I see a ton of stuff I’d see from V!Leafia but at the same time there’s a shit-ton of red flags coming from them.
Ashlyn - Originally I thought that Ashlyn felt villagery at first but on a re-read her ISO looks kind of disjointed. From a first glance the 112 post count is a good sign. Post p3232 looks actually horrible if Solic’s V as I kind of don’t see why that opening was ITA-deserving other than that it shat on the thread. p4746 was… eh, not sure why it was made being that it completely misses context. Would probably nuke Ashlyn if Molly’s W. Frankly a lot of Ashlyn’s posts kind of seem like it’s performative/commentary being that they never actually push or do anything to Solic outside of entertaining the prospect of a hero shot on Solic in p3175.
WWA - Had WWA in the top tier before, but on the re-read her posts actually kind of lack a certain substance to them that I’m not fully confident in clearing her yet. p2517’s kind of a hedge and she didn’t really do anything else with her Marl read. Though this can be handwaved away being that this happened shortly before the boats event when Marl obvtowned himself. Like, it’s hard to explain my read on WWA where she’s not exactly the waffle saleswoman that she was in TvB but at the same time I don’t really see much of the leadership that I generally expect her to show. Overall I’d just let this read simmer and see if as the player count goes if she begins to take lead or not. Meh, WWA’s kind of falling off here D2 as much of her posts kind of just revolve around Proph and there is less and less substance to them. Not really liking p5501 as I feel like she kind of never really talked about Arctic beforehand? If Arctic ends up being V then I’d probably just flip WWA, tbh. Yeah, I really don’t like p5645. IMHO I’d just flip Arctic and once he’s flipped then just yeet WWA if he’s not a hit.
Eevee - Leaving Eevee alone for now. Too many people to read and with his methodology it’ll be more practical to wait until next night to read him. Though if Leafia’s W he’s probably just V.
Nutella - p1834 is lul being that Wisdom flipped W. Though p1957 makes me feel better but I don’t know why. It’s probably about an early level of consistency that makes Nut’s thought on Lit/Cape seem real, tbh. Eh, this post is odd, tbh. p#5032 Nut/Sulit interactions are weird in general. Nut does SR Sulit but never really bothers to push/interact with her and then votes on the CW. Yeah… p6036 has Nut’s read on Sulit be completely wonked out. Like, I can technically see Nut’s position on sulit//Whysper/Blizer being “they’re all wolves, just nuke 'em for orbit” but the fact that she only voted the only flipped wolf in the pairing at the EoD is nagl. Nut did feel more villagery D2 but her Nanook shot and her shotlist in general was still horrible. I’m not fully sold on her being V but I don’t want her shot.
Apprentice - Has been going down since D1, tbh. Shot Nook who got shot by Proph. Was one of the first on Whysper but at the same time the Whysper wagon was used by Proph to save another wolf so it’s not that good of a look. Interaction with Catbae in p5844 is pretty ???.
Atlas - Having a hard time reading him as it feels like he’s letting people dictate his actions. This is kind of >rand V on this site but just slightly.
Brad - I feel like the frustration he’s had when it comes to SDA’s ass shot has been fairly consistent. Doesn’t really come as performative. Strongly >rand V if I had to guess.
Taffy - Shrug. Leaving this for another day since he’s ITA immune. If D3’s a slow day where we can’t get an outed wolf shot because half the village decides to shoot their middle-of-the-road pet wolfread then I’ll analyze them. If this flips V then I’ll look at the players pushing on Taffy solely because of “ITA immune, therefore wolf” as that’s a fairly easy cop-out for wolves to push them on.
Molly - d1 Yeah, I remembered why I just wanna dunk on Molly as the sudden Jake vote in p p4422 while Sulit was getting wagoned looked horrible, tbh. Looks kind of like a partner trying to redirect the attention of the thread to LHF while a partner is being wagoned. And there’s also the mention of Sulit being empty while at the same time keeping her vote on a Jake vanity wagon. Interactions with Brad also has shades of it being pocket-y, and there’s also the how the movement from her vote on Jake to the question on p4517 feels kind of performative being that Molly doesn’t really seem to care about it or Jake’s alignment. Actually p5992 is a really good post, tho. The level of depth in the analysis looks far above what I’d see from a struggly wolf. Then again there’s also the level of passivity in that post where despite believing that Blizer is suspicious, which I disagree being that his post feels like a SoC which is actually villagery, that she doesn’t really do anything with that read and kind of potatoes until the EoD. Would probably just give Molly another day, tbh.
d2 Shot on Luxy was eh considering that I’m TR’ing him and if he does flip V as I think he would then yeah. p5252 was a good observation, tbh. I don’t think that W!Molly would bring up W!WWA like this if they were together being that WWA’s cruising. To add also check in my notes irt Proph.
Luxy - Eh, Luxy’s kind of getting worse, tbh. The Nanook shot’s also nagl considering Proph shot there as well. In general it feels like Luxy’s being less chase-y towards his wolfreads when compared to d1.
Blizer, Ruby, Mansnicks, Swedish - Not enough time, sadly. Noticed that yesterday while I was on that Mansnicks did also have a dramatic drop in post count so if that continues that could be a sign of UTR wolfing, tbh.
Also overnight I’ve received the mech info that there are 14 wolves in the main pack. I think that this is probably a red herring being that 14 wolves mean that like 25.9% of the playerlist are wolves which is generally something close to the maximum of a setup, tbh.
still probably v but it did make me do a double take when i saw it
Yeah, but our tier list have been very secured so far.
Frost I do think you can be town, though if you keep shooting people I think are town outside the shotlist. I’ll have to reconsider this.
26% is way over the top for this roles?
It would need way more stronger PRs for it to make sense.