FAM4: Thread 1 - Day 1

Super Likes Announcement

Super Likes Post Recipient
1 #6974 Achromatic
3 Likes

ask them what they were doing when they get back

1 Like

Like the thing is that I just want to live in big wagon world in which the wagons are big

the post about brad is towny to me bcuz it’s coming from the perspective of being worried about townclearing ppl too easily/quickly, and drawing on past experience with being mafia with brad to justify the paranoia

the second post is towny bcuz i like the complexity of the thought process (Ie: the theory that wolves are avoiding directly voting a certain player but still trying to boost suspicion against them) and it followed vry organically from their initial observation about ppl not voting for brakuren

neither of the posts are unfakeable for a wolf but theyre complex/nuanced in a

EXCELLENT super like

2 Likes

:shell::sheep:VOTE: Gocj

1 Like

Honestly in a game this large I feel the opposite way. Thread moves so fast and nobody can keep up so I feel like if someone just started saying “oh yeah x player just seems wolfy, a lot of people wolfread x player” then people might just fuckin believe it even if not one single person has mentioned them before

Ngl I’m feeling uneasy about the top 3 wagons (excluding Wind), I don’t particularly like any of the targets. Despite Gocj’s weird posting I felt there were some moments of towniness in there iirc.

My favourite would be on Brakuren, and all three on there are towny enough, but also Brakuren’s posting didn’t seem that bad to me…

I am pleased.

2 Likes

I think may’s posts about kii and pandora are towny in terms of the perspective he elaborates on and overall he is doing good stuff

2 Likes

Town:
HALLIAAAAAA
Catbae
SPF
Windward Away (?)
Dyachei
Tutuu
Sadbi
Wazza
Manny
Baud
Nutella
BENNEH!
Porschaaaaa
Ari
Neil the Eel (?)

2 Likes

Voting on phone is a pain

I think in the general case I’d agree with you but I also just, know Atlas, and she’s a very measured player (in a similar way to the comment I made about Magnus). Not outside of her wolfrange but she just genuinely feels like she’s trying to solve my slot

I haven’t read anyone yet…

Although I agrre on Magnus with the one-liners, and Ari popping in telling it is BS and continue with the oneliners is sus as heck.

Also I am going to bed, is anyone gonna do summaries or will those of us with a sleep schedule just miss everything that happens overnight

making it onto brads townlist checked off my bucketlist

@tutuu

I ended up mistyping \green instead of just “green” and it came out blue.

Idk why it does that but it looked cool so I’m doing that.

1 Like

Given how this is the first game ever with Super Likes, this has a somewhat wolfy feel to it. It just feels like May is trying to undermine a townread on Kiiruma. I could be reading it the wrong way, but it’s what my gut is telling me right now.

VOTE: May

1 Like

here, some math

Someone will die today at the end of the day and someone will die today just during it, these two are basically definitely gonna happen.

On average in grand mashes, 4 people will die per night, this game exceeds the expected grand mash by about 30 people, so we can safely assume 5-6 people.

ITA guaranteed shot accuracy of 18% gives us an assumption that 13 people will die tomorrow through ITA shots on the assumption that all players get to shoot, but that assumption isn’t correct, so we can move it down to 12 people,

Some people will die through constant damage of being hit, some people will have their shots miss when they shouldn’t, and some people will have bodyguards, for every 5 players who should die, 1 won’t, so we can make the number of people who die tomorrow as 14 through abilities, etc. etc. with approximately 1 or 2 players living despite being killed.

Following this, someone will be executed and someone will probably be gladiated, bringing us to a total of 16 deaths tomorrow during the day.

factor in events decreasing the amount of ITA shots throughout, you can probably safely assume a 17 amount of deaths, so on average we’ll have around 15-19 deaths tomorrow without knowing the abilities of players, we’ll assume 19 for the sake of it.

now you’re banging on about a lot of factors taking it to a D3 ending without knowing the knowledge of D2 so here you go

reduced KPN will be a factor, 3 people will die N2, you’ll head into D3 with about 58 people remaining

using the continued ITA factor, 10 people will die to ITAs, on an assumption, we can decrease that to 8 for survival shots, etc. etc., you know the drill from the D2 ones, about 3-4 people will die from events or other factors, bringing us to around 11 deaths for the day, one will be executed, so we have a solid 12 deaths

D1: 2 people die
N1: 6 people die
D2: 19 people die
N2: 4 people die
D3: 12 people die

thus, with 83 players in the game, you’ll have 43 people die by the end of D3, giving us 40 players going into the 3rd night and now after wasting my time writing this entire post, I’m gonna be one of these people who fail to make it


anyway I bet you have an ability that gives you stuff if people explain things to you or something, you ask a lot of questions and question the setup a lot lol

2 Likes

I still dont get the wazza town read and it feels that it comes from trying to pocket