FAM4: Thread 5 - Day 3

[Creature]

Honestly Atlas getting protected sounds more plausible

I could see a town protective protecting him

[Someone]

I was in the bottom all the time idk what u mean by target

[CarrotyReaper]

that was like barely any pressure I’m not gonna lie and I doubt bionic even read that!

[Baudib1]

@Creature

Alright perhaps someone can go check it

It’s just that if a name has been repeatedly topping shot lists and someone shot them it shouldn’t give much cred

Unless it comes from someone whose name’s literally next on shot list

The sequence of this was

GocJ (flipped town PR) was keen on getting Magnus (town) killed, and we (me and GocJ) agreed on Magnus/Alexandra shots.

Magnus flipped town and no one was doing anything and I said to kill Alexandra. Someone popped in and shot her and I did too. A couple minutes later Alexandra shot Katze.

[Someone]

I said what i thought

[CarrotyReaper]

assuming it’s

FAM4: Thread 3 - Day 2

I wont lie I dont really think about it for to hard cuz I wasnt planning to shoot, but rn I do think Creature is weird, Sadbi is kinda weird, and Bionic isnt being weird enough.

[Someone]

yea

[FAMHost]

EVENT ANNOUNCEMENT

BOATS RESULTS

@Jinrou’s ship has capsized!

Jinrou was Town

Text-based rolecard

Zugzwang
Town Stochastic Prognosticator

You are a member of The Throne of Boomers .

You are a Nerd. (This is a tag that does nothing. It’s just for flavor.)

Bayesian Inference
Night Action — Key
Choose 1 or more, and submit a corresponding answer that will be checked at the end of the next Day:

• a — Which Guild will have the Advantage?
• x — How many players will die and reveal to be unallied?
• s — How many Super Likes will your posts receive?
• e — Who will win the most events?
• t — Who will the highest living poster from the previous day target with their ITA shot?

You gain P Probability Charges based on the following equation:

P = 2a + cx + (3 - s) + 3e + 2t

where:

• a = 0 if wrong about the Guild, 1 if correct, 0 if no guess was submitted
• x = the number chosen for dead unallied players, 0 if no guess was submitted
• c = 0 if x is off by 2 or more, 0.5 if x is only off by 1, 1 if x is correct
• s = difference between the guess for Super Likes your posts received and the actual value with a max of 3, 3 if no guess is submitted
• e = 0 if the wrong player was guessed, 1 if correct, 0 if no guess was submitted
• t = 0 if the wrong target was guessed, 1 if correct, 0 if no guess was submitted

Epistemological Justification
Night Action — Multitaskable
Spend 4 Probability Charges to block non-killing actions used by target player. You may spend an additional 5 Probability Charges any number of times when you use this action, and may target an additional player each time you do. You may target the same player on consecutive Nights.

---

You are Zugzwang, Town Stochastic Prognosticator. You enjoy math, probability, and programming. This game, we’re giving you a role that (sort of) touches on this by asking people to make predictions. There are various proper scoring methods for evaluating the accuracy of probabilistic predictions, but we don’t know if whoever actually rands this role is going to understand what a Brier score is, so instead we just made a mathy-looking equation and are having them give us some numbers to put into it.

You win when the Mafia and all other threats to the Town have been eliminated.

[Someone]

I dont fucking make reads unless I feel at least somewhat sure

[Jane]

Well at least it’s only 1

[CarrotyReaper]

so someone shouldn’t get credits for the kill it should be you/gocj

[ElizaThePsycho (Willow)]

he LIED

[Jarek]

♫ Celine Dion ► My Heart Will Go On (Titanic)♫

[ElizaThePsycho (Willow)]

what the hell is this forumula

[an_gorta_slanktai]

who would’ve thought

[Jarek]

Where’s my super like

[an_gorta_slanktai]

jarek, did you at any point protect atlas?

[Jarek]

no

[Baudib1]

@CarrotyReaper

so someone shouldn’t get credits for the kill it should be you/gocj

Well it’s not lock clearing or anything but it went a shot on an outed wolf.

This doesn’t let him endgame lol.

[Yawn]

he was dead at eod anyway.

I was hoping to kill frostwolf. :(