Zugzwang
Town Stochastic Prognosticator
You are a member of The Throne of Boomers .
You are a Nerd. (This is a tag that does nothing. It’s just for flavor.)
Bayesian Inference
Night Action — Key
Choose 1 or more, and submit a corresponding answer that will be checked at the end of the next Day:
- a — Which Guild will have the Advantage?
- x — How many players will die and reveal to be unallied?
- s — How many Super Likes will your posts receive?
- e — Who will win the most events?
- t — Who will the highest living poster from the previous day target with their ITA shot?
You gain P Probability Charges based on the following equation:
P = 2a + cx + (3 - s) + 3e + 2t
where:
- a = 0 if wrong about the Guild, 1 if correct, 0 if no guess was submitted
- x = the number chosen for dead unallied players, 0 if no guess was submitted
- c = 0 if x is off by 2 or more, 0.5 if x is only off by 1, 1 if x is correct
- s = difference between the guess for Super Likes your posts received and the actual value with a max of 3, 3 if no guess is submitted
- e = 0 if the wrong player was guessed, 1 if correct, 0 if no guess was submitted
- t = 0 if the wrong target was guessed, 1 if correct, 0 if no guess was submitted
Epistemological Justification
Night Action — Multitaskable
Spend 4 Probability Charges to block non-killing actions used by target player. You may spend an additional 5 Probability Charges any number of times when you use this action, and may target an additional player each time you do. You may target the same player on consecutive Nights.
You are Zugzwang, Town Stochastic Prognosticator. You enjoy math, probability, and programming. This game, we’re giving you a role that (sort of) touches on this by asking people to make predictions. There are various proper scoring methods for evaluating the accuracy of probabilistic predictions, but we don’t know if whoever actually rands this role is going to understand what a Brier score is, so instead we just made a mathy-looking equation and are having them give us some numbers to put into it.
You win when the Mafia and all other threats to the Town have been eliminated.
I said what i thought