[Game Thread - ENDGAME 2/17] The 'Supa Mario' Sorcerer17 - Mafia Wins

[Wazza]

I got that impression by reading it, where else would I get it from?

[Arete]

in what sense is it too safe

[Wazza]

He’s not accusing me of anything, he’s just pointing out things, his posts look like they want to accuse me but they aren’t, they are just there

[Vulgard]

@Arctic

you said if you were a wolf you wouldn’t have been wolfy and you were a wolf

@YoubutWorse

arctic & atlas V

wazza W
these are the only 3 that I actually feel confident about, not saying that I’m right just that I think my reasons make sense to myself

ybw is a villager thanks
bolded is the particularly villagery part

@Arctic

i’m mainly interested in myself ngl

at least you’re open about it i suppose

[min]

i feel like the way hes been has been like the opposite lol- no offense to ybw at all but i believe

@YoubutWorse

for everyone who does wanna look on the archie: BotF IX - Call for Distress - Evil wins - Completed - Forum of Lies | Throne of Lies | by Imperium42

iirc, she spent some of that game questioning who the damsel was and once discussion started about it she started shutting it down because it wasnt something we should discuss

The damsel is a role where if the minions guess who it is, they win immediatley. The minions also learn that it is in play at the start of the game.

I may have gotten the role wrong, or it could’ve just been another thing entirely, but it was something along the lines of asking for something that mafia would want as a “town”, then shutting down discussion about it after a bit of time so that mafia wouldn’t “learn” more about it.

this post especially

and

@YoubutWorse

wazza - her posts kind of remind me of the posts she made during a recent BOTF games where she and I were both evil. It was a BOTF game, so a bit out of the norm, but I was reading her posts and got the same “vibes” from those as I did from the BOTF game.

this post earlier which has different quotes

neither of them give me the impression ybw is trying to be safe at all

[Vulgard]

idk guys i think atlas is a villager independently from his claim and i don’t see what’s so hard about divorcing reads on him from his claim

[Arctic]

i don’t think it looks like he wants to accuse you, i think he just wanted to put those reads out there

[Wazza]

Then why make the post right after calling me wolf, Arctic?

[Arctic]

i am putting 0 stock in whether or not he is actually the sorcerer, im saying the way he handled it is unlikely to come from a wolf (who is definitely not the sorcerer)

[Arete]

idk Wazza I thought that when he said you were a wolf

@YoubutWorse

wazza W

and said your posts were similar to a wolfgame

@YoubutWorse

wazza - her posts kind of remind me of the posts she made during a recent BOTF games where she and I were both evil. It was a BOTF game, so a bit out of the norm, but I was reading her posts and got the same “vibes” from those as I did from the BOTF game.

and then called out specific ways they were similar

@YoubutWorse

for everyone who does wanna look on the archie: BotF IX - Call for Distress - Evil wins - Completed - Forum of Lies | Throne of Lies | by Imperium42

iirc, she spent some of that game questioning who the damsel was and once discussion started about it she started shutting it down because it wasnt something we should discuss

The damsel is a role where if the minions guess who it is, they win immediatley. The minions also learn that it is in play at the start of the game.

I may have gotten the role wrong, or it could’ve just been another thing entirely, but it was something along the lines of asking for something that mafia would want as a “town”, then shutting down discussion about it after a bit of time so that mafia wouldn’t “learn” more about it.

that he was accusing you of being a wolf

but maybe that’s just me

[Arete]

@Arete

but maybe that’s just me

to be absolutely clear this line was sarcasm

[Wazza]

I was talking about the bottom part with the posts he quoted, it isn’t accusing me, it’s pointing stuff out, yet he’s using it as evidence

[Arctic]

who
im confused

[Leafia]

How is the bolded part even the slightest bit villagery? I’d say the complete opposite in fact. Anyway, time for supper and RL for me now so talk to everyone more later.

[Wazza]

YBW obviously, read between the lines and stop your own wasting of posts and stop mine

[min]

Come on, you know what i mean. You could’ve answered me and instead u wasted a post just being smart

[Arctic]

@Arete

I was thinking that your thought process was very traceable but probably not outside of the range of what you could fake as a wolf who was specifically trying to make the reads you think you would make as town

and your response makes me think that it’s not outside of the range of what you could fake as a wolf trying to make the reads you think you would make as town

this is pretty much correct

[Arete]

also I voted you because I thought your early strategy of blatantly rolefishing lines up with your typical scum play of doing overtly wolfy things and counting on people levelling into not suspecting you for it and that when I questioned you on it the mindset you claimed to have was inconsistent with your actual actions

[Vulgard]

YoubutWorse is actually my top town by the way, for a quirky reason. His post history in FoL (the old one) was actually a jackpot from a statistics perspective because he had a game as VT, town PR, and mafia of similar games that all took place at approximately the same time. That naturally controls for a lot of variables. Just a cursory look at those games makes it very obvious that his analysis as mafia was way less in depth than it was in his town games. So I did what any good statistician would do, I decided to validate that hunch. I scraped his post history and built a logistical regression on 500 posts - 250 mafia, 250 town (mix town PR and VT) based on word count from random posts.

The word count/alignment association is highly statistically significant. The p-value of this predictor is 0.000581 (the lower the number, the more likely the relationship exists). To give you a comparison most real world clinical trials are considered significant at just a 0.05. It’s also really obvious when you look at the actual data that this is true - his average word count in the model as mafia was 37, compared to 73 as town.

I then validated that this works by taking another 100 posts and running a prediction based on this model for what his alignment is. The validation held up very well; the prediction score when he was mafia was an average of 0.51, compared to 0.46 when he was town. A separate regression on the training set produced basically an identical linear relationship between word count and alignment.

The guy just posts twice as much content when he’s town.

So I took his ISO in this game and ran it through the model as well. He’s very likely just town. His aggregated average score is 0.49, which would basically make him ‘null’, but that’s largely being skewed by a lot of correlated posts in his argument with me at the beginning of the day. His wallpost earlier today is so far out of bounds from his mafia play that the model predicts that the post is town 99.983% of the time, and his aggregated score from the day is about 0.47, just slightly scummier than the games he was verified town.

[Wazza]

I’m not being smart, I’m being correct out of confusion, mainly since I’m too tired to think coherently