Come on, you know what i mean. You could’ve answered me and instead u wasted a post just being smart
this is pretty much correct
also I voted you because I thought your early strategy of blatantly rolefishing lines up with your typical scum play of doing overtly wolfy things and counting on people levelling into not suspecting you for it and that when I questioned you on it the mindset you claimed to have was inconsistent with your actual actions
YoubutWorse is actually my top town by the way, for a quirky reason. His post history in FoL (the old one) was actually a jackpot from a statistics perspective because he had a game as VT, town PR, and mafia of similar games that all took place at approximately the same time. That naturally controls for a lot of variables. Just a cursory look at those games makes it very obvious that his analysis as mafia was way less in depth than it was in his town games. So I did what any good statistician would do, I decided to validate that hunch. I scraped his post history and built a logistical regression on 500 posts - 250 mafia, 250 town (mix town PR and VT) based on word count from random posts.
The word count/alignment association is highly statistically significant. The p-value of this predictor is 0.000581 (the lower the number, the more likely the relationship exists). To give you a comparison most real world clinical trials are considered significant at just a 0.05. It’s also really obvious when you look at the actual data that this is true - his average word count in the model as mafia was 37, compared to 73 as town.
I then validated that this works by taking another 100 posts and running a prediction based on this model for what his alignment is. The validation held up very well; the prediction score when he was mafia was an average of 0.51, compared to 0.46 when he was town. A separate regression on the training set produced basically an identical linear relationship between word count and alignment.
The guy just posts twice as much content when he’s town.
So I took his ISO in this game and ran it through the model as well. He’s very likely just town. His aggregated average score is 0.49, which would basically make him ‘null’, but that’s largely being skewed by a lot of correlated posts in his argument with me at the beginning of the day. His wallpost earlier today is so far out of bounds from his mafia play that the model predicts that the post is town 99.983% of the time, and his aggregated score from the day is about 0.47, just slightly scummier than the games he was verified town.
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I’m not being smart, I’m being correct out of confusion, mainly since I’m too tired to think coherently
wazza/arete not w/w lock it in
if this is a push on villager wazza arete’s wolf stocks rise significantly too
what the fuck
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jesus christ
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in what sense is making a post that’s like ‘Wazza is a wolf,’ being asked to explain that and making a post saying ‘her posts are similar to a past wolfgame,’ and being asked to explain that and making a post comparing specific things you did in both games not an accusation
this is a serious question
i dont even remember seeing a ybw wolfgame lmao
anyway i’ll catch up for real in a few hours
i know “townreading big wordy posts” is such a bad idea especially with vul but come on now theres no way i cant read that and not think that much effort is inehrently towny
I sighed audibly at you, I expected better if I’m personally honest, no offence.
What do you want me to do, not point out the Sorcerer claim? Just ignore it? Not question it in any way whatsoever? I play differently to you Arete, I am not you, I do the same thing, game after game after game, and that is if there’s something mechanical or role related, I’m going to point it out, I’m not going to ignore it. I am me, you are you, sorry I don’t play to your idealistic ways for FM.
real talk though
my only real reads so far are ybw town and atlas leaning town
everything else is not w/w reads like arete/wazza and marshal/wazza
the arete/wazza unalign i think is a bit stronger
there are lots of villagers in the thread and most of them aren’t being very villagery atm imo
mfw the entire game thread outs themselves as having not actually read Vulgard’s post just skimmed it to see how much effort he put in 
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yeah
(only if Wazza is town though if Wazza is wolf it’s still bad but not wolfy)
(it’s a copypasta)
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I read it and I don’t know what to say about it because like
they just proved I was town with fucking MATH and FACTS and LOGIC what do I say to that
oh
nvm
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