[Game Thread] Morbtainado - Morbfia EPIC win

[Kanave]

this is a towny thing to say but I dont think its super productive to just ping everyone in town; people will be around when they can be around

[Leafia]

Fair fnough. I’m just hoping I can get some bbn people here to get some discussions going. I’ve never seen a game progress so slow around this time before.

[Magnus]

"Today is a new day. Even if you were wrong yesterday, you can get it right today.”

— Ronald Reagan.

Everyone can blame Jaiden for this wallpost I intend to write, which I’ve conveniently split up into paragraphs in order to make this essay easier to read.

@Jaiden

you have to write an essay too btw

I gathered these quotes while the thread was locked, so I apologise if they’re broken.

Reading a null-poster is never an easy task, although from my current perspective Epitau’s slot appears more likely to flip as a member of the Mafia than not. My evidence comes from tallying the results of the flash vote, which sparked as result of Achromatic’s actions:

@Epitau

VOTE: thepigeonnyc

i’ll go for the vote but i guess I’ll track this thread for updates in the next 33 minutes

@Achromatic

@Leafia vote epitau with me. Better chance than pigeon imo

In worlds where Epitau is Town, this already wouldn’t be a good look for them.

In worlds where Epitau is Mafia, letting Achro’s flash vote process wouldn’t be the worst case scenario for Maf, although it’s not a great outcome either to lose a wolf on D1. Therefore, any Mafia partners would vote either myself or Pigeon in order to prevent this from occurring, instead of voting Epitau.

@Apocryphal

Independently both pigeon and epitau are scum, but I’m not sure if they’re actually partnered

I wanna flip both of them definitely though

In this specific timeline, the likeliest Mafia partners would be any players who were suddenly active or throwing votes around at EoD, unless they voted Epitau. This would eliminate Eliza, Apocryphal, May and Kanave as suspects, and due to my own suspicions I’m willing to townlean these four players specifically. Any players who weren’t willing to vote Epitau at all are still potential suspects.

@Min

im conflicted

@"Min

im not voting on this lmao

@Poisonedsquid

I don’t like the sudden speed on the wagon and how little resistance there is

It could be a potential deflection off of scum, but then again, I don’t like how stagnant the voters on Pigeon’s are either…

I’m too afraid of breaking the tie, but god damn

@Leafia

Nah. I’ll stay on Magnus. I think Zorvo could be right about him and either way, a Magnus execution will stop Zorvo from concentrating solely on him. That would be good for the threadstate.

Hearing Pigeon’s last words, I’m going to reexamine a few assumptions.

@thepigeonnyc

Who do you think is scummiest?

I’m gonna do something wild and say PoisonedSquid

Who do you think is most town?

Achromatic just for trying to save me

Which wagons do you think scum are hiding in?

I think pushes on Magnus should be looked at

Let’s imagine a hypothetical world where Squid and Epitau are Mafia together. All of a sudden, Squid’s hesitation to change their vote to Epitau could make sense from a wolf pov. However, what if Squid was w/t with Epitau? Does their behaviour still make sense?

First of all: who could Squid be reasonably paired up with? Well, Zorvo brought up the suspicion against Squid in the first place, so despite their votes aligning most of the previous day they aren’t w/w.

Despite Pigeon’s claim that Magnus!pushes should be investigated, only Zorvo, PoisonedSquid and Leafia were left voting me at the end of the day. Mist and Kanave voted myself at different times, although the circumstances exempt them both from suspicion (Epitau vote and rvs, respectively).

We agreed to vote Mist if Pigeon flipped villager, which indeed happened, although I’d personally suggest Squid as a counterwagon instead.

You might be thinking: why not execute Magnus today instead? You could do that, although I have responses to the only three arguments I’m aware of:

1. Execute Magnus, he might be scum — I am not. Even if I were, there are surer wolves to eliminate, and therefore should be kept alive longer for the sake of actually killing Mafia.
2. Execute Magnus, just to confirm him town — If necessary, you could wait to shoot me tomorrow, which would confirm me as Town or Mafia without wasting an execution.
3. Execute Magnus to clear Zorvo’s mind (as mentioned by Leafia) — I would personally consider my contribution greater than Zorvo’s at this point in time, and I would presumably prove more useful alive than Zorvo would with me dead.

I will now read up.

[Mistyx]

@Magnus

We agreed to vote Mist if Pigeon flipped villager

hold up

[Mistyx]

im feeling very ??? about that wall for a few reasons but im gonna let magnus catch up first

[Achromatic]

I am literally exactly mindmelding with Misty about that wall right down to the “???” and I don’t like it x)

[Leafia]

Same here. It feels like it’s preflipping Epiteu w hard.

What if Epiteu is a villager Magnus?

[Magnus]

Caught up. I wrote the wall during the night because I was bored of shrine hunting.

If Epitau flips villager, it doesn’t really mean much except scum wouldn’t have really needed to defend any of their members during the day, which fits the low!activity Mafia hypothesis someone made earlier.

[Mistyx]

magnus you say there are surer wolves than you

who are those surer wolves and why

[Achromatic]

i feel like the progression on Epitau was collectively ‘Post more’ then ‘Oh this is a terrible vote, let’s be cowards/do 4D chess with Pigeon for information/Pigeon is town’ to ‘Oh God they sound really pure this is a terrible idea’

Which is why I am so confused why magnus is opening with ‘Okay I think this is a wolf’ lol x)

[Magnus]

I haven’t caught up on the suspicion on Eliza or Jaiden, but there’s quite potentially a wolf Squid and yourself, leaning towards the former.

I don’t want to lock in a w/v claim, but that’s my POV at the moment.

[Leafia]

Wouldn’t the wolves have prefered a t!Epiteu lynch to a t!Pigeon lynch though so town wouldn’t get as much info about the gamestate?

[Magnus]

@Achromatic

Which is why I am so confused why magnus is opening with ‘Okay I think this is a wolf’ lol x)

If Epitau is a wolf, hypothetically, Mafia would’ve panicked and refused to change their vote, which opens up partner worlds.

I remember seeing a post where you criticised me missing EoD. I’m not going to deprive myself of sleep every second night, sorry.

[Achromatic]

This was in jest, btw.

[Magnus]

@Leafia

Wouldn’t the wolves have prefered a t!Epiteu lynch to a t!Pigeon lynch though so town wouldn’t get as much info about the gamestate?

Oh yeah. That makes sense.
So if Epitau’s town, wolves might have flipped their vote.
If Epitau’s Mafia, wolves might not have flipped their vote.

[Achromatic]

as for partner worlds this is true. Do you have a good faith belief that slot has actual wolf equity after an iso of them?

[Mistyx]

can you elaborate on the why

[Magnus]

@Achromatic

as for partner worlds this is true. Do you have a good faith belief that slot has actual wolf equity after an iso of them?

I certainly believe it’s a possibility, and that’s the best anyone can get at this stage of a Mountainous game.

@Mistyx

can you elaborate on the why

Squid has equity with Epitau due to the vote refusal, and you were mentioned as a weak suspect yesterday. You were mentioned as a possible suspect yesterday. That may have skewed my suspicions.
I’m watching a Sherlock movie, so I can’t just wallpost again.

[Mistyx]

so why is squid a suspect to you and not epitau

[Magnus]

They’re both suspects? That’s the point I tried to get across.