What does this mean?
Strats
I wanted jaiden to
Keep vibing ngl
Iāve been expecting like, at least some posts from them regarding eod
I wasnāt too surprised by Pigeon flipping town - I gave it a 40% chance to happen before the flip, and honestly, that was a little bit of a lowball, as I was definitely still a little stuck in tunnel brain. I feel a little dumb about staying the Pigeon course so long, TBH. I donāt think I was really right about it being a great information vote, and their posts kept reminding me of misvotes Iāve pushed in the past, at least toward the end of the day phase. They werenāt arguing like someone who has buddies. Ah well, you win some, you lose some, and it wouldāve been irresponsible to let Pigeon go, given the decent chance that they were scum.
Apo dyingā¦ gonna be honest, I keep conflating Achro and Apo, and so itās hard for me to remember super well, but I know I had a townread on Apo; her opinions always seemed expressed in a way that was natural to me. I wouldnāt say I was particularly surprised.
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Iām playing a really scientific mafia game where I scroll to a random place in the thread and start reading. I landed on this post, which reads odd to me. I happen to know, at least in retrospect, that these main two wagons (Pigeon and I) were town v town (thanks to incredible strat āviewing my own role cardā). This is the sort of thing that I think scum would say in that sort of scenario - distancing yourself from the main wagons for towncred later. This was also directly after Achro stated that the non-voters (including Eliza) were suspicious. Hmm.
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VOTE: Jaiden
Everyone is welcome to read the ISO I just read and disagree with me. I feel like Misty at least feels confident when interacting with me, which I think is is usually town. I know sheās going to be busy today and if I paranoiaād onto an early town read and she got lynched because she was busy Iād be really annoyed with myself.
@May I just played against wolf Eliza last game and so far she has more coherent posts than she does there, but also I am told she is very hard to read as either alignment and as wolf last game she kind of dived into mechanics super hard. It wouldnāt be one for one though. Also how many people conflated me and apoc what the heck lol x)
I feel likeā¦ I have barely read anything from Squid past that one big post I looked at. I donāt remember them at all. Huh. Iāll try to amend that sometime today.
also @min @Magnus both of you having that many wolf reads/lack of town reads is so weird. Here I am with only a few good leans and a lot of town leans and you guys are like ātrust no oneā x)
I canāt help but feel thatās a little motivated somewhere.
Itās actually a lack of motivation tbh Lmao
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Damnit min every time i look at you funny you say something that completely disarms me lol
But seriously try to be a little less paranoid. Turn two of those reads into townleans. Even if it is a whisper of a guess. Just post your reasoning it isnt binding x)
I promise Iāll fo it in the morning bc I agree, I need less scumreads
It defines who I am.
Magnus have you ever heard the term open wolfing?
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Maybe this will help me think
Mistyx - ??? Vague scumread but I canāt quite put my finger on why - maybe just her opposition to the Epitau counterwagon, which was the only thing keeping D1 from being a complete wash in terms of information. I agreed at the time that Pigeon was the better execution, but likeā¦ I dunno.
Achromatic - Probably my strongest townread, though Iām still not very confident even in this one - starting that wagon on me during the stagnant phase yesterday was completely unnecessary. If he is scum, perhaps with Magnus, who was the main secondary vote at that time? His posts surrounding the vote on me have this weird focus on Magnus without directly defending him, and combined with that early vote on Magnus for the psych stuff, it feels odd. I havenāt been thorough in my backreading, so let me know if anything contradicts this.
Jaiden - Mild scumread, just because my random scan of her posts shows a lot of very safe opinions, especially on Pigeon, which is what Iād expect of scum getting used to a new environment. Itās also what Iād expect of town doing the same, butā¦ I have to have some reads, and I doubt everyone on that early Pigeon wagon was town.
Leafia - Leafia. Neutral read. Her play reminds me a bit of mine in Discord games (but with a smaller proportion of the dayās posts), which is pretty different from how Iāve been playing here, to say the least. I backread her posts and found nothing, as usual.
Eliza - Neutral-ish read in isolation, but her interaction with so many other players makes me curious about a flip. I want to get a feel for the kind of voting decisions she makes in the future, though I could say the same for anyone.
Magnus - Neutral read, though their alignment ends up being definitely has a lot of sway what this game looks like, I think. As mentioned earlier, I can see a team with Achro? They appeared to conflate Apo and Achro at one point, as we all have, so thatās evidence againstā¦ but they also directly responded to a vote on Achro, which feels like the kind of focus one would have on a teammate. Iām not sure. Also definitely a character who Iād be interested in analyzing via voting patterns; they seem hard to read.
May - Huge scumread, vote this clown out immediately.
PoisonedSquid - Neutral read. Maintaining the Magnus vote was interesting; Iād like to ask her about that. Otherwise, uhhh, um, picked apart Pigeonās replies to my questions, which felt a little like low-hanging fruit, talked a lot about wagonomics but didnāt really provide much new insight.
min - Mild mild townread, I supposeā¦ I really canāt make out much, but his conclusions seem legit, didnāt try to distance himself from the Pigeon wagon toward the end when it seemed a Pigeon vote was inevitable (before the flashwagon), but I should probably be wary about how often he agrees with me. I canāt just believe Iām right in mafia, down that road lies disaster.
epitau - Neutral. Lack of posts makes it difficult to read epitau on his own - itās easier to build worlds based on the flashwagon yesterday, which I think will be easier to find evidence of by thinking about other people. A read on Epitau is more a natural consequence of a read on someone else. I can see them beingmafia or town.
Zorvo - town? read? He seems to be doing actions. He seems to have genuine opinions and appears unafraid of looking suspicious. Iām going to be honest, Iām getting toward the end of this list and slowly realizing how little I have to say.
Kanave - light townread, though I want to hear more from her. Most notable for me is a willingness to read people as town, which is townie behavior, I think. She had some weird moments following Achroās opinions around, but, uh, hypocrisy moment on my part there.
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Anyway, I think we need to get this game moving. What does everyone think is the best vote:
- to get out a mafia member today (i.e. who do you think is most likely to be scum)
- inform reads upon a flip
- for pressure toward someone who is not engaging
- in terms of gamestate/wagonomics for today
And as a follow-up, which of these factors (or another one) is most important to you? Which person would you most like to vote? Can you place a vote for them, pretty please?
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My answers:
- Hard to sayā¦ part of me wants to say Eliza, despite me officially having a neutral read on her, because ofā¦ well, everything. I donāt have a better answer, so I guess thatās what Iām going with.
- Magnus, probably, because of that little counterwagon. His flip could help inform the behaviors around that vote.
- Jaiden hasnāt talked too much, and her posts feel safe in terms of opinions. Iād like to hear more original thought from her.
- Iād like to see how people react to a Magnus or Misty vote, and both wagons are currently existing, soā¦ Itād be nice to see a few more votes on them to put up genuine pressure.
I think the best vote is probably not Misty. I think Iām being a little silly keeping my vote here, which this exercise has let me see. Iām going to VOTE: Jaiden, because early in the day phase, I like to focus on pressure votes. Iāll have questions for her up soon.
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@Jaiden Hi. Hello. Iām voting you. I somehow completely forgot other people were doing this, but they are, and now Iām one of them. Three votes. Scary stuff. Sounds like you should answer my epic questions
- Who are your top townreads and scumreads at the moment?
- If you had to pick someone who hasnāt had a substantial train yet (i.e. not me, Pigeon, Magnus, epitau, Eliza, I think thatās it) to be scum, who would it be?
- If you had to pick someone who has, who would it be?
- Can you place a vote?
- Which wagon over the last two days do you think was the most pro-town? Which the least?
- Whatās your name?
- Whatās the color of the sky?
- Whatās the opposite of down?
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I will help you out. Either I am a wolf with Magnus or I have been pinged by him several times in small ways that are diffused by just enough self-awareness to make me think I am seeing a ghost. Good content, but then itās like an image out of the corner of my eye. When I turn my eyes that way, itās gone. Was it there, or did I just imagine it? That is how town Achro sees Magnus atm.
So you know probably the wolf partner thing.
Your reads check out with mine in a way that I like because you disagree where you should from your perspective day one. Like we disagreed on pigeon so you are coming to Misty from a different but believable angle than me. Same with Leafia, who I read this way based off experience with her rather than just this game.
Although I kind of just want to derpclear Epitau but maybe I am expecting too little of a new player. Maybe they arenāt new at all?
Do you mind showing your work on your Kanave read? This one off the top I donāt know why you have it. I also found it interesting you say it is townie to read people as town, but then townlean Min who has enough scum leans for two games of this size. I like Min, but do you not believe the inverse is true that wolves possibly wouldnāt give enough town credit? I have actually never heard this be described as town before to my memory so Iād love to hear the thought process.
I like your questions but in theory Iād love if we could solve bigger questions first before being precise. Like does a v pigeon world always have wolves on it with available data that we have? Like I am a little busier today than day 1, but what are all of the counter wagons that rose up against pigeon? if those wagons do or do not have wolf equity, it may lead to us thinking more deeply on that early early pigeon wagon because I town lean 3/5 which just leaves Misty who is feisty af and Jaiden who I am voting. Maybe Iāve just nailed the wolf on there but I am always wary of thinking I am a hero and celebrating early in mountainous due to trauma.
I feel like answering four might be revealing my hand a bit. Itās no fun if people see the counter wagon coming, gives wolves time to brace for impact tbh.
On my home site even me living until day 2 would be enough to make me consider if I was horribly wrong with my mortality rate, but I literally 1 v 1ād no diffād a wolf in my last game day one and lived until night 3 so I am hesitant to do my normal trick of assuming I am just bad and voting a day 1 town read lol x)
PIGGY BACKING
Explain your opening wall
Answer the question you were going to answer about pigeon but you said you were waiting for pigeon. Heās dead.
Dare I chose to use one of my valuable post to interact with the dude whoāve Iāve been interacting the most with but I just have to ask a couple questions here.
1)Why is Squid wolfy to you?
2)How are they surer wolves? I personally find Achro to look pretty good, I also donāt see them making the kill. As for Mist, sure I suppose the kill makes sense but I still liked Mistās early posts.
3)Whatās your read on both Eliza and Jaiden again?