GOAT^2 - Game Thread (5/15) - Day 6 - Mafia wonnered

mollylikesorigami (2): Vulgard, May
Vulgard (2): Illwei, BradLand
BradLand (1): KingTroll

Not Voting (4): Lemonfairy, Magnus, mollylikesorigami, YoubutWorse

Day ends 2022-10-01T22:00:00Z

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This!!! Though I didnā€™t get an opportunity to, and it turns out I miscounted and that was the last battle and I lost. Because of wild RNG from my opponentā€™s end. Orca spawning a walrusā€¦ chances of that have to be tiny, right? Iā€™m coping here. I love talking about this game because everything about it sounds like, just mildly insane.

Anyway, in terms of the actual game that we are playing right now, my gutread compass is spinning a little wildlyā€¦ Molly Iā€™m not super confident in, honestly, I think my read on her being partnered with KT was mostly just wanting a solve. Iā€™ll have to work on logic-ing out potential combinations of wolfteams - might spreadsheet it, Iā€™ve got an hour or two before I have to start thinking about going to sleep (and probably three hours after that to actually do it).

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Also this is a joke, I donā€™t encourage lying and cheating in the Super Auto Pets league I am a moderator of. I exclusively encourage lying and cheating about your Fall Guys wins

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I am going to do a little self-indulgent self-reflection while I take notes on partnerships - this post is not for any of you, honestly, itā€™s for me, and I donā€™t think youā€™ll get anything out of reading it, other than my mindset, I guess. Iā€™ve played this game poorly, and I think the specific thing Iā€™ve done poorly is lack of proper interaction with the game. While Iā€™ve placed votes and asked questions and pushed people, I havenā€™t done, likeā€¦ the classic May wallpost and then quick turnaround, pushing for more information from my scumreads by making bad cases, that sort of thing. I think I saw the lackluster reaction to my KT push early on and just subconsciously gave up, which was the wrong reaction. Without the kind of information and reaction I get from messing around like that, I canā€™t properly read a game, which prevents me from effectively pushing later, more refined reads, and unfortunately the game gets too sluggish and stagnant at this phase to make up for the lost time. I can try to look at what there is to work with from previous days, but I didnā€™t create that, and itā€™s easier for me to interpret what I do intentionally to catch wolves than justā€¦ whatever happens to exist. Itā€™s a shame. Iā€™ll do better next game. Iā€™ll make more of a mess. Back to my spreadsheet.

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I want to assume someoneā€™s been miscleared and proceed from there before settling on a Molly wagon or anyone else; otherwise, if Molly and I are V/V and misexed two turns in a row, Townā€™s doomed and the two wolves are probably chilling. With that said, Iā€™m going to reeval on Vulgard.

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I should place my vote where it belongs, huh.
VOTE: KingTroll

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@Illwei @BradLand
Why are you both voting Vulgard?

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The problem Iā€™m currently stuck on is as follows:

I should be able to easily deduce whether KT is potential W/W with Silviu, Lemon, or anyone else who was around at EoD1 by their behavior around the late wagons. Those are really quick decisions on the wolvesā€™ part, which are usually the most informative.

But KT strikes me as the type, whereā€¦ he wouldnā€™t have trouble making realistic impulsive decisions as wolf, at all. The way he goes through the game almost strikes me as too organic, in a way? It could just be personality parallels with a friend of mine who was a really good wolf, but it justā€¦ I dunno. This isnā€™t a take that I think is presented in a format thatā€™s really possible for other people to engage with, given itā€™s just about my personal takes on peopleā€™s personalities, but I figure I may as well put what Iā€™m thinking out there.

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Question for everyone: With your current solve(s), how confident do you think the wolves are right now? Do they think they can push a mis-execution (in which case theyā€™d be doing so), or do they think theyā€™re cornered (in which case theyā€™d be bussing)? Somewhere in between? And do you think you see evidence of this confidence, or lack thereof, in the players in it? I find level of confidence one of the easiest and most effective things to read, so Iā€™d love to hear what others think about it in their own wolf worlds.

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If Molly is town they probably felt really confident because they can just continue to push LHF and get away with being alive because of PR hunting.

If Molly is also town and we take that away they may start scrambling.

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Chance heā€™s the roleblocker if heā€™s mafia.

Hard pushed on Kazo and got him yeeted.

Then is still alive despite being a strong player.

Then went after Eliza, Illwei, then Molly now who are LHF slots in this game.

Side note

Illwei isnā€™t a LHF, the slot is

So possibly mafia after all of that.

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Do you believe two wolves would interact this way?

I could see it in isolation.

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The Lol kill makes me believe thereā€™s at least an active evil, the two killers distanced from O.kazo and are now in a comfortable position, given how Town executed both Marl and Eliza. Zorvo was killed because evils believed his claim. by no stretch of the imagination are evils cruising, but they arenā€™t in such a bad position they need to bus. But if they were in a bad spot D1, and bussed O.kazoā€¦ before circumstance changed, leaving them in a better positionā€¦

Whatever. VOTE: Vulgard for the first time all game.

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If the wolves are Vulgard and O kazo? Absolutely. I think theyā€™d know O kazo was getting eliminated early, and I could see it as Vulgard trying to just get it over with and bus early for massive towncred (and O kazo taking the distance a bit too far, such that it wraps around a little).

I donā€™t strongly wolfread Vulgard at this point, but that interaction is completely plausible to be W/W.

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lmao kink tool but also I think thats fair reasoning honestly, it could be bc scum thought he wasnā€™t JOAt tho

Kinda forgetting theres still a JOAT around bc Zorvo still is joat in my memory

ya

I think vulgard isnā€™t like super townie now bc of how they handled the eliza slot yesterday where it felt like they werenā€™t sure whether or not they wanted to push it but kept saying they scumread Eliza. Iā€™d need to look again to be convinced to actually kill them though.

I lowkey forgot about May earlier and think they also have decent potential to be scum, think theres prob 1 between May/Magnus honestly

Why are there so many M names this game

i love you (platonic)

Where did this come from?

based

if one of us were buddies with silv I think we couldve easily made a ā€œbut I think okazo is town and silviu is scummier or blah blah blahā€ and then end up with at least a rand or silviu dead, who I currently think is town rn. Instead we both stuck it out on marl instead of trying to go for a CW or get people to switch, I even said that I want okazo dead more but I wanted to stay on marl bc of vanity

Yes but actually no but actually yes, kinda stuck off but still scumread her the entire time, it was weird

well yeah duh but that is also only if 1 of us are evil

yeah kinda like what I was saying earlier, zorvo mightve been onto something there but that also relied on vulgard being Elizaā€™s partner so Iā€™m not sure how much that would relate to their actual reads regarding the real flip of Eliza town, they seemed to moreso scumread Vulgard with thinking Eliza is their partner though so I think thats a fair assessment of their legacy
I went off onto a tangent here Iā€™m tired dude

May/Vulgard team possible?

very still
If you want percentage Iā€™ll give you about 94%

brad/illwei team ez

I donā€™t fucking know that was the most confusign thing to see backreading

OKAY im skimming from now on bc I got stuff to do I will only quote something and reply if I really really care, seems to all be discussion about molly and I can make my thoughts seen on that alter

is too towny to be a town a thing lmao

Yes easily

I donā€™t really have a solve, but I think from how confused I feel and how confused the town seems to be Iā€™d say the wolves are fairly confident, but we also have a lot of executions after this so theres a chance that the wolves are in the POE and are trying desperatley to get out of there before we burn through our exes which is why people are voting widely TR slots like KT and vul (who I admit isnā€™t as towny RN but they were TR before)

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You do realize that you just said

ā€œI donā€™t think heā€™s a wolf, but if he is a wolf then he is for sure a wolfā€

right?

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before I go to bed in t-minus-hes-got-friends-on-the-other-side I am giving fair warning I will not be here for almost all day EoD, but I am available all of tomorrow so if you have any questions for me ask em now or tomorrow or if you have anything u want me to do let me know beforehand so Iā€™m not on mobile bc imma be real Iā€™ll still be obessing over this game saturday even if I try not to bc Iā€™ll get bored

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Iā€™m voting KT because I can see the perfect parallels to a game I played with a friend, and in this parallel world, KT is that friend and you are me. Pocketed to hell and back. We ended up in a 1v1 (and I lost hard), so weā€™ll see how things go with you two.

^ This message primarily for humor purposes, the parallels are not the only reason I suspect KT, itā€™s just that the same logic applies here.

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Yes. What Iā€™m saying is that ā€œthis interaction does not prove or disprove Vulgard being a wolfā€. It could be W/W. It could not be. It maths out to nothing because Iā€™m saying itā€™s NAI, unlike Magnus, who sort of suggested (and sort of didnā€™t) that it made Vulgard and O kazo unaligned.

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I love you (romantic)

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