GOAT^2 - Game Thread (5/15) - Day 6 - Mafia wonnered

[Vulgard]

In regard to your KT read, I fully admit I might be pocketed, but I did read his posts and I think they’ve been towny

[Vulgard]

I don’t think that’s 100% the exact team but those are my two biggest suspects yes
I didn’t look into team equity because I don’t like preflips as much as you might think

[Vulgard]

I think that if I’m wrong on one of these two it’s May or KT and if I’m wrong on both then maybe you’re a wolf because I don’t think May and KT are teamed with May’s performative push on him for the entire game and him not even really engaging back

I did think they could be teamed earlier in the game but when I actually looked into their ISOs I dismissed the possibility entirely

I don’t see Lemon/YBW/Brad being wolves ever for reasons I gave earlier

[Vulgard]

I think I posted this list earlier but it goes like this

YBW
Lemonfairy
Brad

KT
Illwei

May

Magnus
molly

[YoubutWorse]

@Illwei

Your pushes have been almost exclusive town

This is a bada rgument considering Vulgard was one of the main pushers on Okazo

[Vulgard]

I did read the previous argument that O. kazo was trying to distance from me with that vote but I frankly idk what they were doing, my theory is that they simply didn’t want to spew anyone and that’s why they voted me instead of doing literally anything else

[Vulgard]

Oh O. kazo uses he pronouns
Sorry for misgendering

[May]

Yeah, what you’re looking at is that I’ve been playing this game badly. I am not playing it well. I usually do this for a while at the start of each game, and then get it together one I figure out who the wolves are, but unfortunately I haven’t done that, and logging off for a while to meditate on it didn’t help much (mostly because I spent most of it sleeping for 14 hours).

The readlist I gave was bad and inaccurate and I knew it was - I called them “shit” in the post itself. It was like… a list of… hm, how do I put this, vibes and tone? The sort of “what are my initial, kneejerk reactions, what do I think thread’s consensus on them is”, and I didn’t expect it to actually be a list of the scum? I know it’s strange to say that about a readlist, but, like… it’s what it was.

I need to get it together, I really do, and I appreciate the push to do so. My progression on Molly has been garbage and my attitude toward Eliza was bad - for the record, it was “I don’t think she’ll really flip scum but I’m not winning this fight and I don’t want to look like I’m hard defending her because then I’ll be so killed if I’m wrong”, the latter part of the argument being what’s so terrible about it - and that’s my fault. I just… dunno if I’m going to figure it out this game, honestly, I’m sick and tired and confused, and I didn’t set myself up for success earlier. I’ll do my best, of course, but I don’t think it’s going to be good enough.

I will note that “I don’t scumread Eliza, but I’d rather her flip than Magnus” isn’t an inconsistent position. I wanted the game to progress. Zorvo was saying to kill my top scumread if Eliza flipped town, and I also townread Magnus at the time. When I said “there will be no flashwagon tonight”, I meant that there would be no Magnus flashwagon that day - my vote, I’m pretty sure, wasn’t even on Eliza while I was saying that.

I’m going to… well, I’m going to get out of bed and so on, at 7PM, sigh, but after that I’m going to keep working to see if I can fix up my understanding of this game… we’ve got plenty of flips remaining, I should be able to make associations to solve the game within then, but. I dunno if I will.

I think I still scumread KingTroll. I think that’s still who I want dead by the end of the day. I don’t know how to convince anyone of it, though. All I have is “this is how I think a player like him would act as wolf”, and little things that just ping wrong to me. Like, his EoD1:

@KingTroll

@YoubutWorse

I said bradland looked sus to me if okazo flipped wolf so maybe thats where u got if rom

that’s probably it. anyway uhhhh zorvo will claim to be lockclear if kazo flips wolf i wouldn’t trust that. throwing most of my reads out because i have a bad feeling (never makes it past n1)

@KingTroll

@May

What would everyone say the % chance of O kazo flipping scum is?

like 70%

@May

If he’s scum, how many of his buddies do you think are bussing?

given how he has over 5 members on his wagon and i doubt it’s fully pure at least 1

@May

If he’s town, how many scum are probably on his wagon?

absolutely 1, possibly even two if it wasn’t picking up traction fast enough

@May

Who are his most and least likely partners?

they haven’t actually spoken that much in direct relations but i think the least likely partners are zorvo and and vulgard. i don’t have a bet on the most likely partner though no one’s really come to their defense barring what ybw is saying about brad

@May

Does anyone want to start a flashwagon?

are you willing to flashwagon marl

@May

Which people would you go after if he flipped V?

already stated silv

@May

What alternative vote do you think would have the highest chance of flipping scum?

marl

@May

What alternative vote do you think would provide us the best information upon flip?

marl

@KingTroll

silent eod really is making me think scum has their lynch lined up

@KingTroll

brad you’re here who other than kazo would you want out rn

@KingTroll

nah i’ve planted my vote. so many second thoughts but that’s my wifom urges

@KingTroll

honestly fair. wagon isn’t moving i’ll move my vote back out of pride

VOTE: Marluxion

70% chance of flipping wolf, but scum have their execution lined up and they want to flashwagon Marl, but Zorvo will claim to be lockclear if O flips wolf and that’s not true, but Zorvo is his least likely partner, but, but, but… It feels like he was trying encourage me to start a flashwagon and take the fall. Some level of inconsistency is typical from townies, but that 70%… it just doesn’t line up, IMO.

[Illwei]

Sure, here.

@Vulgard

Forgot about O. Kazo, complete shrug.

I feel surprisingly okay with sheeping Marl on Silviu and telling him to sheep me tomorrow instead if he’s wrong.

One. First mention of kazo.

@Vulgard

Because the Silviu push is yours and not mine, and you’re not willing to listen to me on Magnus?

There’s not really a case that I have on O. Kazo, I just think their posting is incredibly lame and I keep forgetting they exist which usually happens with wolves

Two

@Vulgard

Regardless. I think O. Kazo is the most likely player to flip wolf. I’m temporarily letting Marl push on Silviu because I don’t actually have a read on Silviu and he might be right, so I’m ok with following that push today. If he’s wrong, and/or if I die, then he and everyone else will hopefully listen to me and vote out O. Kazo tomorrow. I think the way Marl reacted to my push on him is unfortunately town indicative for him.

Three

@Vulgard

I had a push on O. Kazo later but it wasn’t really talked about.

Five. What push?

@Vulgard

I could be wrong on Magnus, and I could be right on O. Kazo but since Silviu exists in a similar spot I am okay with him going as well.

Six

@Vulgard

In regards to Silviu your recent comments have made me a bit worried that I’m basically letting Marl push over a free ML by not going in harder on O. Kazo but I don’t think it’s that damaging because I assume I’ll get my way on O. Kazo either way by doing it like this and if he’s right then I can just call him town for sure and we’re one wolf down, two if I’m also right.

Seven. Pushes all of the blame onto marl should the silviu flip go through.

@Vulgard

Not sure if I’ll end on this or Silviu, but O.Kazo still hasn’t done anything and still hasn’t moved their vote at all while failing to explain the read. I feel like they might be in antispew

To be fair the same thing could apply to Silviu so I’ll wait for him to come back and maybe switch if he doesn’t. Atp I really don’t care which one goes down.

Eight. Vul leaves open silviu (town) as a wagon to end on yet again.
Granted, he does tie the vote 3/3 with silviu.

@Vulgard

I think Marl’s last post was towny so I’d rather you not kill him, thanks. Atp I wouldn’t kill him even if Silviu is town

Bonus post, where vul tries to make marl feel comfortable about staying on silviu when he knows silviu will flip v

@Vulgard

So you’ve seen the light

Nine, in response to eliza calling kazo a frozen wolf. Makes it seem like vul is convinced kazo is a wolf, right?

@Vulgard

Actually, I think some people here were in Flicker? You mled O.Kazo there, were the circumstances similar at all?

Ten, nope, vul tries to give kazo an out by comparing him to a game he was MLd.

17

[Illwei]

There was no real push on kazo despite people saying that he was one of the main pushers behind kazo

[May]

And sorry, Zorvo, for the fact that I’ve not been the good player you say I am, at least this game around. You certainly did better than me this time around - you took risks to push your reads, made proper conclusions based on flips, had the confidence to make real calls and convince people. I’m the one slacking here (certainly evidenced by the fact that I haven’t been killed yet).

In my defense, I’m pretty sick, but usually that makes me a better mafia player in terms of just… believing in my raw pattern recognition, which is probably the best thing I have going for me, to see me through to the scum. If we lose, I can certainly blame myself.

[May]

I can at least try to encourage my townreads to help do the work for me.

Illwei, since you primarily scumread Vulgard, could I ask you to make a readlist of the living players solely in terms of chance to be Vulgard’s remaining partner? I think that’d help me think about this execution in a more informed manner (when currently I’m just… not thinking about it at all).

[Illwei]

If kt is a wolf why wouldnt he have switched to silviu at the end there instead of marl? Tbh thats my question although it does look bad. Also brad and ybw arent paired and neither are brad and kt

[YoubutWorse]

tbf, may voted silv litearlly last second, like when I was there I saw them vote and then the thread locked immediatley

[May]

It was literally the last second, yeah. And O kazo was going to go down sooner or later, so probably not even worth the last-minute swap if it meant the attention.

[KingTroll]

I’m finally back and I completely talked myself out of pushing Brad in the place of Magnus while I was gone so. Fuck my brain I’d love to have confidence in a read

also I saw there was about? ten seconds between May’s vote and eod? I remember looking at thread and going “maybe I should swap” but luckily my internal wifom took so long I didn’t swap

[Lemonfairy]

checking in for today
haven’t done anything productive

everyone that’s been active looks town?
me/Magnus/molly then?

smol brain thoughts

[Lemonfairy]

ok bye
be back in 8 hours
or 9 idk

[Host_Account_1]

Vulgard (2): Magnus, Illwei
KingTroll (2): May, BradLand
mollylikesorigami (1): Vulgard
BradLand (1): KingTroll
May (1): mollylikesorigami

Not Voting (2): Lemonfairy, YoubutWorse

Day ends 2022-10-01T22:00:00Z

[May]

I have to go to bed immediately (words of a liar) but I’d love to like… have meaningful discussions, anyone want to do that? Meaningfully discuss something? I’ll vote for someone besides KT, great opportunity for his partner to let him live another day this is a joke.

I’ve been trying to go for “tierlist for your top scumread’s partner”, since at this point we definitely should be looking for scumteams rather than individuals, but I’m happy to talk about. Anything. Let’s talk. Let’s discuss.

Cool opinion I’d love to hear your opinions on: there is definitely a wolf in Vulgard/KT. Do I fully believe this? Uhhh maybe, depends if I hear a good argument for or against it, so convince me, please?