By the way, I need to bring this up.
I don’t understand this setup, I’ve played in it so many times and I keep reading the OP but it just isn’t clear to me
Please stop bullying me.
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Well, it’s not so much of a plan. More just regular mech!spec… haha. But anyways, so I think based off OP, essentially the game works like this:
nvm LOL this did not work out like I had imagined
We can have 1-3 PRs, and mafia can 0-2 PRs.
So normally, this would be a lot of combos to sort through.
But I think with 2 nights passed, we can almost definitely say there isn’t any kind of town killing role in this game, because really, even a 1-shot vig should have shot by now. Theoretically should have shot Frostwolf N1… ah though wait actually, that’s the “almost” part, if mafia had a jailkeeper and protected Frost as CW. Or a roleblocker and they blocked the right person, idk, but seems unlikely. Okay so that’s the caveat, moving on!
Any other scenario (aka like 90+% of them or something) means that we should’ve had Frost dead N1 (or some hero shot idk), or at least, a kill N2! Because why would a vig holster when the numbers are so optimal, haha
Ok so anyways. Chihiro’s claiming Jailkeeper and no one has verified/denied his claim so far, right?
Jailkeeper is 4 (or 5, and then we’d have a bodyguard).
Meaning if Chihiro’s telling the truth, then combos are:
- Jailkeeper + Bodyguard (5) + 1-shot Vig (1)
- Jailkeeper + Bodyguard (5) + IC (1)
- Jailkeeper (4) + Voyeur (2)
- Jailkeeper (4) + 2-shot Vig (2)
- Jailkeeper (4) + IC (1) + 1-shot Vig (1)
1, 2, 5 we can’t know for sure, but I assume if there’s a bodyguard and/or IC, we’ll know soon enough (don’t claim tho)
4 I already explained was kinda unlikely, would mean that both sides had a protective and blocked the other’s kill perfectly for a no kill scenario
3 is possible though, and we can plan for it somewhat since Chihiro’s outed anyways if he’s telling the truth
Even if mafia don’t NK him tonight, he’s still a sitting duck bc I asked the host and the host said jailkeepers can’t self target
I had to check MU for what a voyeur does but I think it’s like this:
So I think we may as well just ask him to name his target tonight, and if a voyeur’s in the game, they can verify the claim! It’s a win-win, if mafia was gonna kill him anyways then either way he dies, if mafia wasn’t/he is mafia, then at least someone will know…
ah wait. Then the voyeur in this case would have to out themselves to share, and that would be worse, actually nvm sorry to disappoint 
tl;dr NVM
if you guys can make anything useful out of this at all then go ahead tho
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how so?
also I didn’t sleep much last night, so I go to sleep
It’s pretty much just different combos that add up to 6 dice!
hopefully this helps
So like if you rolled 1 investigative dice, and 5 protective dice, you get 1x IC, 1x Jailkeeper, 1x Bodyguard = 3 town PRs
And then that means 2 mafia PRs and it’s just whatever you roll in that table I guess
But bc of the initial 6 dice and the fact that in each category the minimum roll to get 2 rolls with 2 roles of that type (ala 4 town PRs) is 5 dice, 5+5>10 so the game balances kinda by making sure town has only 3 PRs max
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*5+5=10>6 so impossible
I disagree. There are several strategic ways it can benefit scum
I read literally every single post
If not Wazza than who out of you me lemon and Magnus is scum.
Humor me and assume one of us always has to be scum.
No. I’ve been saying for forever that there’s exactly 1 off wagon d1
Wazza and Zorvo were both off wagon d1
And there’s exactly 1 in each list.
Wazza and Zorvo are each in a seperate list. I believe one or the other is always scum but never both.
I stg there’s more to my read than one singular post I’ve been talking about this for daysssssssss
ok am going to bed, that was too much
but other stuff off top of my head
I read Gorta’s most recent (?) game ISO where he was wolf last night, and I thought he was really different this game in comparison; last game, a lot of “I think this vote is weird- but I’m not implying anything, what do you think?” which imo is a bit of a shady way to shade.
This game he was like, way more chill and less shady, and also said he thought strong reads D1 weren’t his things, which I think lines up w my past impression of his game.
Would put at townread.
Eliza’s last vote on Frost was IMO really town-indicative. Would also put at townread.
I think Frost trying to shove a Lissi scumread implication at Magnus at least 3 times D1 prob points to them being unaligned? Despite the EOD2 stuff Wazza was talking about, which I need to check tomorrow.
IDK I will say individually I did feel some paranoia about Magnus starting yesterday, starting with the NK spec stuff, and also bc Magnus’s D1 posts still seem the towniest in my mind and also I don’t understand his Zone/Chihiro T-dome thing at all.
Still would wait until tomorrow to rethink though.
Currently,
For sure no exe: Lemon, Gorta, Eliza, Chihiro, Zone, Neon
Mostly no exe: Magnus, Zorvo
Would exe: Wazza
This also doubles as a townread/null/scumread list, I guess, except Chihiro’s claim is still a little in limbo and Zone would otherwise individually be moved down a bit bc of the EOD2 stuff which I kinda could see just him having fun. But idk if it was definitely a “response” to Eliza.
Obv the would exe pool is really small. At this point it’s more POE than anything, but I will still rethink this tomorrow if I change my mind anywhere.
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The on wagon/off wagon stuff was different, I thought? Isn’t the readlist from Frost (or ig, his top 3 reads of each) a different topic?
So Magnus or Wazza
Lissi or Zorvo
But
Combine this and you get W!Wazza clears Magnus and Zorvo. Gurantees W!Lissi
W!Zorvo clears Lissi and Wazza. Gurantees W!Magnus
However. I’m less sure that there is exactly 1 wolf in each list of 3 and more sure that there’s likely 1 wolf off wagon exactly so I’d prefer to solve between Wazza and Zorvo than turbo whoever the next flip. But like it’s a lot of statistical analysis. That’s what I do. However it works as seen by how I found Frost.
The Frost read is built upon the back of Magnus being town so I feel more likely that its Wazza/Lissi than anything else.
I guess Zorvo and Magnus can’t be wolf either now looking over this. Soooooooo fuck me lol. I’ll figure it out but I’m pretty confident there’s always one in Wazza Zorvo Lemon and I find lemon to be the last likely.
They both inform my scum list. I didn’t just suddenly forget about it.
Fuck it my brain is broke
Uh.
Living Players
ElizaThePsycho - town for now will reeval later could’ve bussed. Is always town if Zorvo is wolf
Neon -
Zone_Q11 - wolfy. Honestly I haven’t thought Zone was very town since d1 and the jailer plus no kill feels like everyone keeps trying to push the idea that Zone was saved and nobody even wants to entertain that Zone was carrying the factional and was blocked. I think this is decidedly most likely Zone wasn’t a good target for the NK in my opinion.
Chihiro - Un CCd town pr for now I don’t believe they claim with 2 votes on them so early in the phase except to out information as town. I also think they self resolve in every way. Always town if Zone is wolf.
Wazza - wolfy. Barely present, reads feel weak, barely interacted with some scum reads hard tunneled others. Is town if Zorvo is wolf. I’d also probably just forget about them till limlo if Lissi is wolf.
Gorta - wolf. Because like they haven’t done anything towny. Wouldn’t kill though.
Zorvo - wolfy. I don’t think they’ve been charitable with me in any way. I think they are misrepresenting facts repeatedly. I think they could’ve easily been distancing with Frost. I’m coming around to working with Zorvo to see if I can find them. I think always town of Wazza or Eliza are wolf.
Lemonfairy - towny on tone and solving. Hard tunneling is NAI but I think it often benefits woofs more than town. Always town if Chihiro is wolf.
Lissi - Lissi was one of my highest town reads but looking back through I do think Wazza is right about some things they’ve said on Lissi. I think its less likely Lissi is wolf if Wazza is despite how I feel about the statistical chances of the lists containing woofs. So that just hurts my brain.
Magnus - IC. Probably. Will reeval in limlo.
Never exe today - Neon, Chihiro, Gorta Lemon, Lissi, Magnus, Eliza
Always exe today - Wazza, Zorvo or Zone
That’s how I feel if i just drop the numbers and statistical analysis for a minute.
So… gonna work from there