Good morning / afternoon / evening to everyone who reads this message. If you are reading this, then I somehow survived N1 despite claiming Vigilante. Full disclosure: I am NOT Vigilante.
I only wanted reactions out of the people who claimed, and I have decided to townlean Neon based on her nonchalant vibes when she wished to die.
Now, let me talk about EOD1.
I know that people who don't read wallposts exist, so I'll spare you folks the trouble and put it in a spoiler instead.
The first day ended with 7 votes. The odds that this wagon is pure is essentially zero since (1) mafia would have been too inactive otherwise, and (2) our POE pool would be severely limited to [Lemlem, Neon, Magnus, Zorvo, Wazza]. Three mafia in POE of five players? That’s too good to be true.
So there has to be at least one mafia within [Chihiro, Gorta, Lissi, Eliza, Mistyx, Frost].
Now, from what I have seen at EOD1, doing wagonomics might prove to be nothing but a waste of time because of how lacking the motivation of the first voters are, but I will do it nonetheless since… I got nothing but time to burn.
As of P#905, which was eight minutes before EOD, I have made a post of the main Ashlyn-voters: [Chihiro, Mistyx, Gorta, Lissi].
Mistyx initially voted Ashlyn to make “real wagons” even though the result of her vote was just the creation of a third two-player wagon, which effectively did nothing until Gorta and Lissi joined the wagon.
Mistyx switched to Frost at P#897, causing a 3-3 tie, but then switched back to Ashlyn at P#935 breaking the 4-4 tie. She later attempted to switch back to Frost again after Ashlyn was hammered. I think this is very hedge-y and very scummy. If Frost flips town, then I definitely think that Mistyx is mafia.
Compared to Mistyx, the activity of the other initial Ashlyn-voters at EOD were rather very much “less than desirable.”
- Chihiro voted Ashlyn very early, and he was online 30 minutes before EOD, before suddenly disappearing from the thread.
- Lissi announced beforehand that she might not be available during EOD due to her appointment. She did mention she wanted to vote Neon, but decided to not proceed and instead focus on Ashlyn before joining her wagon.
- Gorta… IDEK how to read Gorta. As I mentioned in P#905, he just said that Ashlyn seems to be playing too seriously for D1, voted her, and basically peaced out.
Right, so uh… I got nothing on these three. Their motivation to vote Ashlyn are way less “thought-provoking” compared to Mistyx, so I’ll just move on to the final two people who voted Ashlyn.
At P#909, Eliza joined Ashlyn’s wagon without any reason. Now, the weird thing about this is: I can see why v!Eliza wanted to join a wagon for the sake of “head empty, sheep top wagon”, but then she switched her vote to Frost at P#920 and then switched again back to Ashlyn at P#929. This is obviously very hedge-y and scummy. It is very easy for w!Eliza to join the EOD with low-effort and vote for whichever wagon. Same thing with Mistyx: If Frost flips town, then I think that Eliza is definitely mafia.
Now, as for Frost… To be honest, I don’t really know what to think of Frost. If he flips town, then I’d have two suspects, but I’m getting ahead of myself.
The reason why I don’t exactly understand Frost is: “Why did he not vote until the final minute?” He had been tied with Ashlyn for about 10 minutes, which was damn exciting, I’ll tell ya that. Yet he somehow didn’t self-pres until the very last minute?
On top of that, he added a cheeky “I did mention that Ashlyn is in my scumread” at the end (which did happen in P#803), but his scumreads were [Lissi > Zorvo > Ashlyn] and he never actively pushed any of them. That is to say: He never voted any of them.
(How do you expect people to believe you are scumreading X/Y/Z if you are neither voting nor pushing for their death until it is the literal final minute of the day?)
Okay, so based on these reads, I have come to the following conclusion:
VOTE: Frostwolf103
If this flips town, then Mistyx and Eliza are next.
If this flips mafia, then… IDK, maybe I’ll start paying attention to [Chihiro, Lissi, Gorta].
Truth to be told, I really don’t want to focus on [Lemlem, Neon, Magnus, Zorvo, Wazza] any time soon, or at the very least not within D2. Why? Because I have spent hours on reading six players; I ain’t going to try reading the remaining five.
I feel like I’m forgetting something…
(Maybe the fact that your last minute switch to Ashlyn at P#941 was sus?)
That? Oh, I saw that Wazza was gaining no traction, so I was planning to switch to Ashlyn when I wrote P#921. I lied about wanting to do nothing; I was instead trying to find a good “last minute surprise” image for fun. I also have an alternative picture, but I’d imagine that more people would recognize Henry Stickmin than [REDACTED].
