Hydra-Optional Vig10er - Day 4 - Town Wins

[TheBirdsAndABee]

my level 1 read was that aelin was genuinely pissed she wasn’t getting widely townread because in her mind she feels very obv town
…which feels very like exactly how i feel

[cat]

okay poisoner 21er arete

answer my pertinent questions please

[TheBirdsAndABee]

if i answer this completely honestly it’s not gonna be pretty

[idrc]

@idrc if its pretty, i care if its helpfull

[TheBirdsAndABee]

the honest answer is the fact that soren has been backseat mafia-ing visibly and loudly and also annoyingly

“trochi tf kinda answer is this are you genuinely using this”
yeah i know trust me but i can’t not say it because there’s no better way to put it and it’s the best most concise explanation
and i’m not using it, it’s an explanation
if i was mafia this wouldn’t be happening to this extent anywhere near as much and i also wouldn’t be pointing it out it wouldn’t feel right
so
probably not the answer you wanted but idgaf

[TeamSlightlyPolish]

well first of all the giant wallpost that we posted in the middle of the phase was co-written, orange was the one who did most of the actual writing because all my wallposts end up being like 3000 words long but many of the ideas were mine, like I was the one who kicked off the FPSers discussion in hydra chat, and the new doubts on idrc were obviously also me, orange had already had old doubts

this one

@TeamSlightlyPolish

okay so Arete and I have been talking for probably an hour and a bit now because it really feels like this game is unwinnable if we don’t get our heads together and figure out where we’re at collectively

---

We still think 21 is a combination of threadspewed town and genuinely just way more believable in his pushes than PKR normally is as scum (this bit is mostly me but still).

BB is probably our only other solid townread. I personally have found their hydra dynamics to be eminently believable in a way I don’t know if the two of them are skilled enough to fake (no offense Trochi), and Arete thinks their solving has been very real, particularly revolving around tells they had discussed before the game. Either way, we don’t see ourselves going there today, or really before F3 at all.

idrc has been getting off very lightly, and upon a re-skim of their iso Dum has basically had no input since anything relevant happened at least if not… ever. This is in stark contrast with G10, where he was super enthusiastic until he misvigged, and even then he kinda came back with some spirit. We can both see worlds where this is town, but they’re dwindling fast the longer Dum says nothing and we need eevee to stop answering for him.

I in particular think YBW has probably the two best posts of the phase, and I continue to maintain that Leafia is generally best readable through whether she is making it super obvious that the people she’s talking about are the alignment she’s making them out to be, which she isn’t really doing unless the rest of our reads are way off. I also think it’s literally impossible that either of these heads are being coached based on what YBW has said and the fact that I know from experience Leafia is un-coachable. Despite all this, they just don’t have as much reason for us to trust in them as most other slots in the game, and so we’re considering them firmly PoE.

We think it’s possible that idrc and LBW are exactly the team. This being said, we also think eevee would be breaking his own vow of inaction or whatever the fuck to do more today given saving LBW was the main thing he took an actual stance on D1. This being said, eevee is eevee.

The main thing that kickstarted this discussion was Arete being paranoid about how Brad was handling us earlier on, specifically how he was putting a lot of focus on how he was right and cat and us were wrong, without really trying to look into why each of us was wrong. Given it’s not hard for wolves to be right, they found the lack of tangible actions throughout that encounter to look kinda like setting up a fight between cat and us without actually taking sides. They wanted this to remain a secret read, since they weren’t super confident in it and they thought actually pushing for it might be seen as wolfy, but as this is quite possibly a loss condition for town if we’re v/v, and most certainly is if LBW/21 is also v/v, I’ve made the executive decision to bring it up anyways.

Arete has voiced their concerns about cat already, and those do still hold. but I think my major hangup here is that I feel like they’re (or really, kat-in-particular) being a bit reachy for things to not find us towny over? Like, kat of all people has seen firsthand that I’m more than comfortable turning on and dunking town members if it helps my own survivability, with cases like Appel and Emilia in FAM both being prime examples, and also the mislynches I pushed on F A G and especially Leafsper in H20G1 being both relatively recent and particularly relevant examples of me going out of my way to dunk on slots that were up against my wolf mates. Despite this, I was definitely the only voice in the thread defending MR, while simultaneously being run up directly against them as EoD was bearing down. It’s not that we’ve played a flawless game so much as it feels like the weight that’s being attributed to the things this slot doesn’t like about us is higher than I’d expect given I feel like .

---

So we’re basically in agreement that our not-small-enough PoE is idrc/LBW/FPSers/cat in which no more than one scum exists within FPSers/cat. We think this lines up pretty well with how the first half of the day has been progressing (ie, it hasn’t really been tbqh) and definitely has us worried given we have come to be in agreement with Fire that there is a very solid chance of hell being let loose today given the flips, and yet this hasn’t occurred.

other than that here are a bunch of random posts I grabbed from the middle of my Iso ft. specifically-me scumhunting

Summary

@TeamSlightlyPolish

@cat

when you talked about how actually the Alison strategy was right and you’re adopting it because you think it’s correct were you saying something you actually believed or were you saying something you didn’t believe to sound more persuasive

this is not a loaded question

@TeamSlightlyPolish

ok

followup question

how did kat get from, like, repeatedly railing against that strategy and talking about how she thinks it’s terrible, to wanting to use it here

@TeamSlightlyPolish

lean towards LBW as the wolf in that hypothetical pairing

when I look holistically at Kii’s play, I think he is probably saying things he actually believes, which points to him not being a wolf-pushing-village-LBW – ime he generally struggles to convincingly make reads he knows are wrong as wolf

and LBW still has some things I can’t quite shake, like the vote-explain tell and the thing where they responded to pushes on them that were based on false claims by agreeing with the (demonstrably false!!!) claims by being like ‘oh well it wasn’t suspicious for me to do that’ rather than ‘wtf no I didn’t do that’

I also skimmed SCP Mafia since Leafia was claiming that she’d improved as a wolf and I agree that (apart from her literally outing her partners) she’s improved in her handling of TMI such that the fact that she isn’t blatantly TMIing everything isn’t so much a point in her favor. if she’s actually a wolf then, uh, lolher for pointing that out to me

@TeamSlightlyPolish

cat I have another question for you but it sounds super loaded so just pretend it isn’t (I mean it is a little but less than it sounds)

how has being wrong on literally every flipped villager affected your view of the game

@TeamSlightlyPolish

mrr

part of my issue here is that it feels like you basically just have the same reads you had yesterday

like the flips didn’t make you reconsider your worldview really at all (maybe a little bit FPSers but that hasn’t really been your focus)

and I feel like normally when you’re as wrong as you have been you put more consideration into reevaluation rather than ‘reevaluating’ to the same reads you had before you did

idk if I’m explaining that well

@TeamSlightlyPolish

yeah I mean frankly if my slot had been as wrong as your slot has been this game that would more or less be a wolfclaim

and I don’t think we’re significantly better than you guys are

so … yes that is affecting my read

@TeamSlightlyPolish

yes, you are

I am saying ‘you have been pushing at least four villager slots (Engineer, Wind, TL, us) without really reconsidering even when players you claim to respect (e.g. orange) bring up points in their favor’

(you are now also pushing LBW who hasn’t flipped but I started thinking this before you started pushing them)

‘if an orangerete hydra were pushing four consecutive villagers while refusing to listen to literally any points in their favor coming from players they respect, they would almost certainly be a wolf’

‘kat and Chloe are just as good as us’

‘which points to them being a wolf’

@TeamSlightlyPolish

like if kat had been like ‘Wind’s a villager, I don’t care what Chloe says, get the fuck off her’ I would have fewer concerns about your hydra

her having the correct read but letting you kill Wind anyway is arguably more concerning than you guys just being wrong because, like, ‘being wrong on Wind’ is a thing that villagers can reasonably do, ‘thinking Wind-in-particular is a villager but not doing anything about it except vaguely making fun of people and still voting her at EoD’ makes much less sense from a village motivation

@TeamSlightlyPolish

@Dum

what was the last thing you and eevee talked about in hydra chat (paraphrase, no quotes)

answer as quickly as possible please

@TeamSlightlyPolish

ok I kind of walked into that one

last game-related thing

(I guess the last two were townhunting-in-motivation but same difference)

[TheBirdsAndABee]

tldr soren gives a shit very much and won’t stfu about it
which is annoying
but still

[cat]

prefacing this with “this isn’t a scumcase”

@TeamSlightlyPolish

aret aret

/vote cat @Sensei

meme vote (on a villager)

@TeamSlightlyPolish

/vote cat

vote on us that might be serious i dont know (but its still on a villager)

@TeamSlightlyPolish

/vote LeafiaButWorse @Sensei

vote on LBW (a player you now think is town) (so from your perspective its on a villager)

also a vote cast DIRECTLY after our slot did the same vote

@TeamSlightlyPolish

wow the last vc really was 15 hours ago

also /vote EngineerGaming @Sensei

vote on a flipped villager

…also a vote cast DIRECTLY after our slot did the same vote. again.

@TeamSlightlyPolish

Also I have not discussed this with arete but I am going to /vote EngineerGaming @Sensei

May walk this back shortly if I determine letting it self-resolve is ideal

voting the same slot they were voting. again. also on a flipped villager. after they claimed vig.

@TeamSlightlyPolish

yeah okay I think the odds Vig!HH sees EG fakeclaim and actually go play stellaris instead of coming back with literally anything are sufficiently low

/vote HoodHeroes @Sensei

mf arete

vote on a flipped villager

@TeamSlightlyPolish

/vote Cat @Sensei

and… your only vote on D2 so far.

a vote that is presented like a meme vote, but i won’t call it one because if i do you’ll probably say you scumread us at the time and yadda yadda

LBW might be a wolf, i don’t rly know. aorn i lean towards it being no, but they’re still in my PoE

you, however, do not think they are a wolf

both heads of your hydra do not come to my slot as your top wolf, either

so…

@Arete

Vote a wolf.

if anyone wants to factcheck this: Search results for 'topic:1161 @TeamSlightlyPolish /vote' - Fortress of Lies

[cat]

@TeamSlightlyPolish

yes, you are

I am saying ‘you have been pushing at least four villager slots (Engineer, Wind, TL, us) without really reconsidering even when players you claim to respect (e.g. orange) bring up points in their favor’

(you are now also pushing LBW who hasn’t flipped but I started thinking this before you started pushing them)

‘if an orangerete hydra were pushing four consecutive villagers while refusing to listen to literally any points in their favor coming from players they respect, they would almost certainly be a wolf’

‘kat and Chloe are just as good as us’

‘which points to them being a wolf’

thanks for grabbing this post for me

you have voted exactly zero wolves if you think LBW is a villager

[idrc]

well this isint helpfull

Yeah you are backseating, but if leafia kiiruma were self desteucting as v/v this isint Town indicative

idk i appreaciate the attempt, but this is no bueno

[FPSers]

@TeamSlightlyPolish

of which I’m currently vaguely leaning FPSers, like, I feel like the best reason I have to townread them is ‘they are both not great wolves,’ and when I asked them for what they have done that’s been townie their answer was a list of things that was mostly dependent on them not being great wolves, and idk if I want to count on them not improving to the point of ‘being able to write posts’

Summary

@TeamSlightlyPolish

m’kay

seems like Probably Something You Really Believe regardless of whether it’s actually correct

also for the benefit of Brad you can make your dashed lines work right by putting a \ in front of them, like so:

\-Arete

which turns into

-Arete

@TeamSlightlyPolish

but I believe that you-as-town, having seem them have all the same thoughts as you, would find them villagery

@TeamSlightlyPolish

• nod -

I kind of parsed ‘sheeping catze’ as suggesting that your vote was influenced by having seen theirs rather than being a proper mindmeld but like either way I think it is probably a real thought from you but probably not actually super AI for them

@TeamSlightlyPolish

that’s not what I was saying??? I wasn’t saying ‘ah yes, Aelinbrad definitely believed in all of these votes when she made them’ I was saying ‘Aelin believes in the fact that she “mindmelded” with cat being actually town-indicative for them even though I don’t actually think this read is good ’

@TeamSlightlyPolish

Brad/Aelin are trending up a bit, in Moison Brad was kind of struggling to make reads, to the point that he made a channel in scumchat for keeping track of his reads and a couple days in posted “I don’t have reads, this channel is a sham” which was an exaggeration but not a lot of one, whereas here he has a much less narrow scope which makes me think he’s more likely to be town

@TeamSlightlyPolish

Brad/Aelin is a slot I’m trusting the polarization on brad’s half moreso than anything else but I have thought that Aelin seemed more natural than CBN/CoD so I’m willing to buy into that

@TeamSlightlyPolish

FPSers re: your question – I said you were trending up because I had gone from weakly thinking you were town to strongly thinking you were town, not because I had gone from thinking you were scum to thinking you were town. also I didn’t notice the specific Wazza thing you pointed out

@TeamSlightlyPolish

Ie I think there are better reasons to townread FPSers than threadstate while outside of that one post my 2wolves read is mostly threadstate

@TeamSlightlyPolish

Arete legacy

Engineer Gaming

Dumeevee
Brad
2Bird

Kii
cat

Melody
LBW

Windzza

@TeamSlightlyPolish

the easy answer is that I fairly strongly townread FPSers, Birdbee, and Dum, which leaves Kii + LBW

which in that world means Kii has been trying to hardbus LBW for basically the entire game? which isn’t completely out of the question, I’ve seen PKR hardbus before and he seems to struggle a fair amount with TMI as a wolf, but I do think that ‘cat is a wolf’ is an easier answer

the other possibility is that one of my top three has a misclear, if it were somehow confirmed to me that that was the case then … it’s possible I’m underestimating Dum’s scumrange, I’ve never actually seen him wolf and I’ve heard he’s not completely incompetent, and he is partnered with eevee? but again the ‘cat is a wolf’ theory is easier

@TeamSlightlyPolish

So we’re basically in agreement that our not-small-enough PoE is idrc/LBW/FPSers/cat in which no more than one scum exists within FPSers/cat. We think this lines up pretty well with how the first half of the day has been progressing (ie, it hasn’t really been tbqh) and definitely has us worried given we have come to be in agreement with Fire that there is a very solid chance of hell being let loose today given the flips, and yet this hasn’t occurred.

@TeamSlightlyPolish

Also my biggest issue with an idrc/FPSers team is that FPSers in particular has been continuing to defend LBW today when by all means that team is happy to watch LBW sink

k

notes:
yes
i just skimmed like 600 posts
yes, some of these are from orange
yes i noticed at post like 598/625 arete said “i forgot why i townread them” but fuck you im feeling petty
bye

-a

[cat]

i get the feeling you’re missing context here

[SIGNUPS 13/13] Risky Light Game: Featuring Rain - filled hype!!!

ok i’m saying this before game starts or anything’s randed some of u may know but most probably don’t i’m a part of a system (this refers to someone with DID/OSDD i highly recommend looking those terms up) in short i guess you could say i have “multiple personalities” that’s the easiest way i can get across switches between who’s here and present are uncontrollable and can last anywhere from hours to days due to my condition if this happens there will be obvious tonal and typing differences…

this may be useful

(not going to comment on whether or not i think their case makes them town)

[TeamSlightlyPolish]

I would feel more compelled to reconsider my voting patterns here if I were townreading your slot

with that being said I think we probably land on FPSers or idrc today, pending actually having the chance to talk it through with orange

[idrc]

i dont get it. Are they just the sane type of meta as me (aka roll scum >rand slank?) if not i dont see the town

[FPSers]

felix is a person
soren is a person
both are tro
felix is not soren

[TeamSlightlyPolish]

me: ‘my best reason to townread FPSers is that they aren’t great wolves’

you: quotes a bunch of posts half of which are calling you town-for-being-bad-at-wolfing

[idrc]

how is this relevant???

[cat]

sure, we’re in your PoE, and this is about the reply i expected regardless of your aligmment

both you and orange are leaning towards other names being wolves, you’re not convinced you can’t both be right

my post isn’t a scumcase because there are absolutely valid worlds where you’re a villager and everytihng i said is still right, but i still think it looks p fuckin bad

your lack of… actual voting is Noted – albeit somewhat alleviated by the severe lack of votecounts-- however from my perspective your votes are particularly horrible this game (which we’d both agree is probably a wolftell for both heads of your slot) and i’d still like a real response to it

[FPSers]

dont know how tf else to explain it to you
soren is yelling at felix from inside felix’s head
its like backseat driving when your parents try and tell you what to do while youre driving
its not felix taking a backseat in the game

[FPSers]

half of which arent