I think I might be the Goblin - (6/9) - Night 3

Forum Games Ongoing
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#61

That makes the chance higher

If I was drunk, the host knows I’m not fond of hydras and showing a good check on you would be worse for town beacuse they would think I would blindly push an evil check

#62

Anybody feel like drinking the blood of some sinners?

Im thirsty

#63

Ok I’m not a math expert but it is certainly higher than 50% in any scenario

#64

I’m gonna be honest, I don’t really wanna push an account solely because they’re a hydra.
Will say that I really want to resolve the May + Litten position at some point given how influential they are inevitably going to be over the game state, but this is also Blood on the Clocktower, and it hates resolution.

#65

Who is really good at this game

#66

hmm that’s fair, it isn’t just them being a hydra that’s my reason to push, but that made me check them night 1

#67

yo what’s up guys i’m goblin

2 Likes
#68
  1. Drunk and Poisoned characters do not always receive wrong information, it’s arbitrary and may or may not be correct
  2. The number of additional Village Idiots is not random, it’s decided by the hosts, the distribution isn’t always even
  3. It isn’t guaranteed that there’s a No Dashii in the game, so there’s not actually a 2 in 9 chance of you being No Dashii poisoned, and you didn’t even remove yourself as a potential No Dashii
  4. The chance of a neighbour being a No Dashii is independent of the chance of being the added Drunk, so the chances aren’t additive: even if you take there being a 61% chance your info is right and a 2 in 9 chance you’re No Dashii poisoned, there’s a 47% chance you weren’t initially Drunk and didn’t get No Dashiied, 14% chance your info was initially right and then got poisoned, a 30% chance you were initially Drunk and don’t neighbour a No Dashii, and a 9% chance you were initially Drunk and do neighbour a No Dashii
#69

:stabbycat:

1 Like
#70

Hob or normal

#71

bugbear actually

#72

imagine this counts

#73

:D

#74

I think it does?

#75

skull emoji

#76

Say there’s a 1/3 chance the No Dashii is in game: from your point of view, it can be any player who isn’t you (8 players, 2 of which are your neighbours). That means there’s only an 8.25% chance that you specifically are No Dashii poisoned. Even if you assume poisoned information is always wrong and take your flat 61% chance that your info is right, 0.61*(1-0.0825)=0.560 (or 56%) chance that your information is right.

You’re not even actually doing math here you’re just back-justifying that you want to kill hydras which is disruptive and not even remotely productive for your nominal reasons because killing us doesn’t stop us from being in the game

#77

As extremely funny as it would be to vote Carbon out off of that, I think I’ve made enough scum-adjacent posts for a quarter hour.

1 Like
#78

I’ll wait for an unbiased source of math (ash)

2 Likes
#79

Ah those things killed my fav fighter kevin one time. Not a fan

#80

i’m having so much fun

1 Like