Wha
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joycat
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Marluna (8): SirDerpsAlot, Kiiruma, tutuu, Bionic, Frostwolf103, Zugzwang, Someone, Marluna
Kiiruma (8): SirDerpsAlot, tutuu, Bionic, Frostwolf103, Zugzwang, Someone, Marluna, Hippopablompoyeetus
Ash (8): Kiiruma, tutuu, Bionic, Frostwolf103, Zugzwang, Someone, Marluna, guavagudetama
Hippopablompoyeetus (1): SirDerpsAlot
tutuu (1): Kiiruma
Someone (1): Hippopablompoyeetus
guavagudetama (1): Hippopablompoyeetus
Not Voting (2): Ash, beancat
You have five minutes to correct any issues with this votecount.
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You vote to jail Marluna, Kiiruma, and Ash.
The number of wolves within them is...
Two
Night 2 begins and will end 2024-03-06T21:00:00Z.
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During the night, the mafia chose a beam.
The number of masons within their selected group is...
0
Day 3 begins and will end 2024-03-08T21:00:00Z.
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This topic was automatically opened after 18 hours.
hehe
This post has been scheduled to post at this time.
Hey everyone, I’m probably in class currently (though there’s a good chance I’ll go online anyway). Also don’t sheep this post too much because I’m posting it partially because I want to have an actual use for scheduling posts, and SOD is… pretty much the only practical case here.
So. After pondering at night I think Ash is most likely to be the town in the pool. It’s clear Kii’s nearly always wolf. As for Marluna vs. Ash though:
Ash
While Ash did vote Kii despite wolfreading him D1, his reasons for doing so, and the progression accompanying it, are better than Marluna’s.
Quite a bit before voting, we see this:
Then the vote:
Later:
The progression here is pretty clear, and Ash explained without being asked.
The other thing I like about Ash’s reasons are that, as I realized D2, there’s actually pretty good. Voting people who are unknown, alongside people who are towny, gives more information in the case of 0/3. And if you’re confident enough on your townreads or wolfreads, then you can conclude safely enough the unknown/wolfy person was wolf. Depending on the relative confidence of your reads, it’s sometimes better to get a 1/3 with 2 townreads and 1 null/wolfread, than it is to get a 0/3 with 3 townreads. If you already were certain those 3 people (in the 0/3) were town… you haven’t actually learned anything from a mech confirm.
Marluna
As for Marluna. She initially voted Kii/Tutuu/Me, and when I asked her reason:
Votecount at the time:
Zugzwang (7): Someone, beancat, Zugzwang, Kiiruma, tutuu, Bionic, Marluna
tutuu (6): Someone, Zugzwang, Kiiruma, tutuu, Bionic, Marluna
Kiiruma (5): beancat, Kiiruma, tutuu, Bionic, Marluna
No Prisoner 3 (1): Someone
Someone (1): beancat
Not Voting (5): Ash, Frostwolf103, Hippopablompoyeetus, guavagudetama, SirDerpsAlot
Considering there are 3 wolves, this isn’t sound at all - it’s very possible 2 or 3 of the people making this decision were in fact the wolves.
Later, there’s this:
Given this, we know that Marluna believed it’s a 0/3, to some greater or lesser degree. This in itself isn’t too strange, but voting purely because it’s consensus is. There isn’t a town reason to be so ambivalent.
Also, Marluna probably shouldn’t trust Kii that much, considering that Kii also was wolfreading her.
Now, assuming the masons haven’t been guessed, we have a lot of guesses available with the same worst case, some of which are detailed below:
One such guess is two people from Kii/Marluna/Ash, and one from outside - so yes, we could go for a win today, without sacrificing a guess in the worst case scenario.
Another guess is splitting the remaining players 3/3, as mentioned yesterday. More interestingly, we could also split them 4/2, with the 2 being 2 wolfy people.
We could also check an individual player in Kii/Marluna/Ash, hoping to get full confirmation there.
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idk if ur allowed to schedule game related posts that feels kinda cheeky lmao
Yeah I agree its marluna/kii i think
Witness me
Well, that makes things easy.
VOTE: Marluna
VOTE: Kiiruma
I feel like that’s the best use case for scheduling posts?
Like, why go through all the hassle otherwise?
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not me being online 2 minutes later anyway
but yeah they said it was fine as long as I marked them as clearly scheduled (though they will decide for the long-term after this game)
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ngl im like actually shocked that that was a 2
Idk fmpov in a mash its pretty sus if people can start scheudle ita shots at start of its windows, for example
I have returned from my conference and I am ready to contribute once again
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It certainly makes our lives easier.
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I think we do frost/someone/tutuu today