This post has been scheduled to post at this time.
Hey everyone, I’m probably in class currently (though there’s a good chance I’ll go online anyway). Also don’t sheep this post too much because I’m posting it partially because I want to have an actual use for scheduling posts, and SOD is… pretty much the only practical case here.
So. After pondering at night I think Ash is most likely to be the town in the pool. It’s clear Kii’s nearly always wolf. As for Marluna vs. Ash though:
Ash
While Ash did vote Kii despite wolfreading him D1, his reasons for doing so, and the progression accompanying it, are better than Marluna’s.
Quite a bit before voting, we see this:
Then the vote:
Later:
The progression here is pretty clear, and Ash explained without being asked.
The other thing I like about Ash’s reasons are that, as I realized D2, there’s actually pretty good. Voting people who are unknown, alongside people who are towny, gives more information in the case of 0/3. And if you’re confident enough on your townreads or wolfreads, then you can conclude safely enough the unknown/wolfy person was wolf. Depending on the relative confidence of your reads, it’s sometimes better to get a 1/3 with 2 townreads and 1 null/wolfread, than it is to get a 0/3 with 3 townreads. If you already were certain those 3 people (in the 0/3) were town… you haven’t actually learned anything from a mech confirm.
Marluna
As for Marluna. She initially voted Kii/Tutuu/Me, and when I asked her reason:
Not Voting (5): Ash, Frostwolf103, Hippopablompoyeetus, guavagudetama, SirDerpsAlot
Considering there are 3 wolves, this isn’t sound at all - it’s very possible 2 or 3 of the people making this decision were in fact the wolves.
Later, there’s this:
Given this, we know that Marluna believed it’s a 0/3, to some greater or lesser degree. This in itself isn’t too strange, but voting purely because it’s consensus is. There isn’t a town reason to be so ambivalent.
Also, Marluna probably shouldn’t trust Kii that much, considering that Kii also was wolfreading her.
Now, assuming the masons haven’t been guessed, we have a lot of guesses available with the same worst case, some of which are detailed below:
One such guess is two people from Kii/Marluna/Ash, and one from outside - so yes, we could go for a win today, without sacrificing a guess in the worst case scenario.
Another guess is splitting the remaining players 3/3, as mentioned yesterday. More interestingly, we could also split them 4/2, with the 2 being 2 wolfy people.
We could also check an individual player in Kii/Marluna/Ash, hoping to get full confirmation there.
