lmao reading is hard
I read this already
I just thought his role override it
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the dude still killed Babel, so idk what this means yet
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It’s still determined random
Atlas had no time to see that though
This all happened in like less than 2 seconds
Okay, I’ve finished my reread of Day 1 and… I got some stuff, but nothing really concrete - mostly some unaligned pair findings and things that make sense if more people flip. In that case, I’ll be writing out my thoughts on the rest of the PoE, but with a emphasis on if Leafia flips town because then y’all will really need the help. But at risk of burying the lede…
I’m pretty sure this is confirmation bias, but I have a feeling the exact team is Leafia/Apprentice/Lucky? The gamestate makes the most sense with this team as wolves? When they were both being pressured early on, they each both tried to wagon Silviu rather than each other, and they were treating each other carefully throughout Day 1 - with Leafia kind of fence-sitting on his alignment, and Apprentice sheeping Icibalus’s townread on Leafia as a reason not to seriously investigate her.
Votecount
Lucky… so the reason I’m less inclined to assign him town points for the Babel vote is that he voted Babel during a period of time ITT where Babel was not being seriously considered as an execution candidate, and Babel only was - once Marl proposed Babel as a wagon and then (Millium/Frost/App/Leafia) got on Babel. And if you take that away from him, Seth has been mostly spamming and stewing the thread with shit for most of the game, and yeah.
In Leafia villager worlds, I think that the team is… Litten/Kiiruma/X? My issue with this game overall is that it feels like I’m putting square pegs in round holes when it comes to scumteam compositions, which is why I wrote up my previous post about lock clears and I’m imploring the town to stick to that, because the easiest way to overcome that syndrome is to write out in excruciating reasoning /why/ you have someone listed as a townclear or wolfread and evaluate it against all of your other reasoning. So, with that in mind, here are my thoughts on the PoE with as much detail I can muster.
Alkali r. Icibalus
I’m going to mostly base this off on Icibalus’s posts, because I think Ici was playing quite transparently and unless she’s secretly a god-tier wolf, I think this slot is town in most worlds?
So let’s start off with the claim, first and foremost. Miles Edgeworth, Flavor Cop. This claim is doubly/triply proven, in a couple of different ways. First off, is that Chloe knew what Italy’s flavor was before he claimed. This means that she is definitely a flavor cop. She could be wolfbuddies with Italy, but that runs contrary to the second piece of evidence clearing her, which is that I tracked her to Italy last night. Unless she… knew she was going to be tracked and targeted her wolfbuddy Italy for shits and giggles (a world I refuse to contemplate), she is absolutely a flavor cop who targeted Italy last night.
Finally, the other thing supporting her claim is actually the flipped mafia (Furio Tigre’s) role. The way that role is actually written (Impersonation - you know that Phoenix Wright flavor can be falseclaimed, and you roleblock all investigative actions taken on you) feels specifically designed so that Chloe’s role /doesn’t/ act like a cop, as normally if you give a wolf a role like this, you wouldn’t tack on the “roleblock all investigative actions taken on you” rider, so that the wolf doesn’t get punished by claiming Phoenix Wright and the flavorcop checks them, revealing that they’re Furio Tigre. So, I think mechanically she looks good.
But more than that, Icibalus looked really good behaviorally. She was focused on game health and acting as “support” throughout D1 which, IMO, is something that trends more towards town who know their role that this game as a team game as opposed to a wolf trying to provide excuses for low content. And she did provide a lot of content - mostly with how she was townreading Leafia. Which brings me to my first question if Leafia is indeed v - which is, why does w!Icibalus strain her neck to defend the hell out of Leafia in such a nuanced, /real/ way? I’ve certainly done my fair share of whiteknighting, but rarely do whiteknights look like this:
Icibalus "epiphany" of Leafia
More than that… I don’t think this interaction comes from a w/w? It’s easily fakeable to be sure, but I don’t think Ici just shuts down Babel (“wallow in ignorance”) like she did here.
Icibalus/Babel interactions
More townie posts from Icibalus:
Icibalus/Lucky interactions
Seth/Alkali not wolves together.
I guess I suppose write a little about Chloe? tldr - her posts are good. They aren’t anything that I would consider unfakeable from wolf!Chloe, but she’s been doing a lot of things I’d expect from her as a villager. Her metachecking Leafia to make sure that she’s capable of faking the AtE Leafia’s been spouting off is a key example - I’d imagine wolf Chloe to just bulldoze through this Leafia execution without taking steps to really doublecheck herself, but she’s been pretty careful and thorough with regards to that read.
This section is really long already, but tldr - I think this slot is town and if isn’t, then not only Icibalus played like a goddess, but Chloe replaced in and continued to play super well. Wolves would have a flavor cop randomly (I assume for falseclaiming purposes) and the wolves didn’t make the flavor cop perform the factional NK. The flavor cop also isn’t grafted with any other role like a roleblocker etc.
Lucky
Not really going to go through Seth’s mountain of bullshit, but I would just like to take out two key interactions from his ISO and ask myself if he’s capable of them as a wolf.
The first is this Babel/Seth interaction, where Seth Garcia’s (answers a question directed at someone else) Babel:
Babel interactions w/Seth pt 1
The second interaction is where Seth accuses me of being buddies with Babel due to not choosing to run him up when Italy/Babel were low-posting. He ties me to Babel, then votes him at a time when many people were not really focusing on Babel.
Babel interactions w/Seth, pt 2
So, originally, I thought that this was pretty townie of Seth (and it still is! Bringing attention to your two-shot poisoner will absolutely be townie) but this is actually the votecount around the time this post was made:
I think it’s within Seth’s wolfrange to randomly stick votes on buddies - he did this a lot to Atlas in Railgun Mafia, I believe. And the fact that the wagons were concentrated like this, plus the fact that he tried to tie his buddy’s wolf-flip into a potential execution chain on me, makes me think that this push on Babel was not conducted in good faith?
Seth is also never aligned with Kiiruma btw.
It’s super tricky to read the guy but another thing is that his role is also super weak? Like, why does he have to predict the execution target just to get… an extra vote, which likely disappears in xylo? Maybe I’m modgaming super hard but that seems like a huge barrier to jump through for a measly extra vote.
So yeah idk, check those two interactions and evaluate if they’re real, because I’m not reading 90% of this guy’s posts
Kiiruma
think this slot could be wolfing in worlds where leafia is villager because he’s been coasting and hasn’t really made an impression on the gamestate
Would Listen to Chloe though, she’s better at reading him than me. Just a consideration in v!Leafia worlds
Apprentice
i love this dude’s posts every time he posts, and he looks super good from that Babel townread
I’m just worried that instead of a TMI slip it’s instead Babel trying to prevent his buddy from going over but idk
this interaction also has me tilting my head
Does this interaction actually mean anything with regards to Apprentice’s alignment?
Think this is such a throwaway interaction that I’m inclined to ignore it - just wondering if w!Apprentice would be more likely to call upon a wolfbuddy to provide content ITT?
Can see Leafia’s stance here supporting an Apprentice/Leafia team bc she’s kinda chainsaw defending him
I also mentioned the weirdness between Leafia’s role (treestumper + neighborize) and Apprentice’s role (last will) being weird if they’re both town, because they allow two different townies to give thoughts after they’re dead
Litten
i want to believe that he’s town, but honestly if we’re crashing and burning he’d be the first slot I’d look towards
I think in Leafia villager worlds there’s very likely someone who is aggressively pushing her and Litten is likely to be that candidate as I’ve already “cleared” Chloe
I believe his shit about power wolfing, the thing about that though is that like… wolves can change how they play
and he has this sort of stealth control over the game thread where he’s extremely active and is always around to offer some interesting thought on whatever the gamestate has to offer
my main behavioral reason to townread him has to do with him asking me if i really believed (the sunbae quote), which I don’t think he puts that much thought into if he’s a wolf but is absolutely an astute observation from villager him here
Italy
gut and general thread posturing says town but easily fakeable
slots like these imo flip town like 80% of the town because he just does not care i feel
some random townie posts from Italy that I’ve compiled
finally here’s a quote chain from atlas/leafia that clears atlas if leafia is a wolf
Atlas vs Leafia
I think this entire quote chain clears Atlas if Leafia is a wolf and vice-versa.
I don’t think Leafia misrepresents Atlas like this if they’re wolfbuddies together.
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Atlas did as tie breaker yes
All within one minute
no Marl was one of the biggest catalysts for Babel’s train
its still unbelievable Marl plays this way, especially given in many of my experiences with his wolf game, he tries to push mislunches and shield his partners
or lose wim, but kill his partner, ok
That’s actually why I thought they were w/w
Leafia has a hard time with TMI and her treating atlas as though he isn’t fully cleared while treating Eliza as if they are is really bad for atlas if leafia is a w
You guys are dumb and clearly were not there at eod. WHEN ATLAS VOTED he was voting with literally 0 seconds on the clock
There was no time to see prophs unvote
Their posts came in simultaneously. Atlas effectively killed Babel and saved Eliza just like proph did
Less than a minute
Okay, I could do more but I really need to start working
Trust in my first post over my second. I legitimately believe if we treat the six people as lock clear until there’s a very good reason why we shouldn’t, then we can win this game
Proph out
.gif)
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THEREFORE
REGARDLESS OF HOW THE WAGONS ENDED
Atlas’ vote effectively would have saved Elizas life and killed Babel
That is what I mean
Think this is somewhat possible with a v!Leafia flip yes, but if she flips wolf he should be pretty much lockclear from meta, his push on her, and her “RT” to get him not to roleblock her
Because if neither proph nor atlas acted in time Eliza would have gone over and there was literally 0 time to send a message after processing the other one sending due to forum lag
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Looking forward to hopping in dead chat and realizing I’m super wrong 
think my process is good though and that’s all that matters for me
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also readlist
town:
me.
town:
eliza
marl
mill
wisdom
townread:
app
the poe pit
alkali (ici was good but i could see them going either way)
kiiruma
litten
frost
italy
leafia
lucky
You did good king
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