You should contemplate voting.
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a 1/3 when trying to hit a 2/3 is much better than a 1/3 trying to hit a 0/3
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going “one of these consensus town is actually wolf but we don’t know which one” spreads more paranoia than it helps
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and a 1/3 does give some information that a 0/3 does not
0/3 means everyone in the beam is acting with the purest of intentions. does not mean they’re correct
whereas with a 1/3 we can at least go “none of these people have actual equity with each other”
“it’s all fake”
one of these people is wolf but ONLY one so we don’t have to examine their relationships with each other we can cross examine the pools
hold on
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holding
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Here’s my opinion on the game theory
D1 Game Theory
- 2/3: Best - You just need to find a second pool with the third wolf and you can start solving
- 0/3: Fine - Ruling out 3 candidates only puts you on the same footing that wolves start with, but doing it on d1 means you can build a strong towncore and this can lead to the best D2 results
- 1/3 Worst - You have negative information, but this is salvagable by D2 results. It can also be fucked up the most by D2.
D2 Game Theory
From 0/3
- 0/3 - Best - You now have a pool of 6 people where the wolves definitely are. This is the best result on D2 and is the key reason why D1 0/3 is better than D1 1/3. You can now analyze these six people socially from the position of a strong towncore that everyone trusts
- 2/3 - Fine - You now have a pool of six people where the last wolf definitely is. This is progress from this position but there’s a reason it’s the worst result coming from a 2/3
- 1/3 - Disaster - This one is fucking rough. You need to find two wolves in six people which means you need to spend at LEAST another day solving to make sure you aren’t barking up the wrong tree entirely
From 2/3
-
1/3: Best - If you did this correctly you now have a pool of 6 people where all of the wolves DEFINITELY are. You can now solve socially
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2/3: Good - do not attempt. It means you either have no new information (you checked two of the same people and confirmed that they are mafia) or muddy information (you checked two of the same people and maybe the new person is the third wolf you have no idea and can waste days figuring it out)
-
0/3 - Worst: The pool for the final wolf has become 6 people instead of 9, but you’ve spent a day building entirely incorrect worlds and you needed to make more progress to keep up with the mafia.
From 1/3
- 2/3 - Best - The same principle applies to 1/3 2/3 as applies to 2/3 1/3. Having a pool of 6 is ideal.
- 1/3 - Fine - The final pool is 1 in 6 BUT you have two groops of three you can socially look at while hunting for the final wolf
- 0/3 - Disaster - See 0/3 1/3
TL;DR
Wolves only need one 0/3 result to accomplish the same thing that town does in two 0/3 results or a 2/3 and a 1/3 result. A towncore d1 is great, but it gets less and less useful on subsequent days as wolves continue solving and town needs to make progress. Thus, a D2 0/3 is only useful in the context of a d1 0/3, it’s the worst possible option for D2 ofherwise. Also I think I’ve talked myself into thinking that a D1 0/3 isn’t that mathematically great because it’s harder to build off of, but that’s from the perspective of an uninformed townie, obviously from mason PoV it’s much closer to the N1 0/3 that is mafia’s second best outcome (after simply winning the game)
5 Likes
i think the tl;dr is actually about half of the words in this post
the actual tl;dr is that in the middle of the game, ruling out three people is Not Enough Progress
The game should never be solved D2, trying to solve it D2 will simply lead to dissapointment and stalling progress while mafia makes it. There is a magical christmas land where the game CAN be EFFECTIVELY solved on d2 via consecutive 0/3 results with no overlap from masons. There’s also a second magical chirstmas land where we go from 0/3 to 3/3. and of course the most specialest magicalest land of D1 Solve
The best realistic position though is a 0/3 0/3 that will realistically overlap with the masons, providing them some cover to socially follow each other (or perhaps knowng 2-3 vts) starting d1 and letting people steer town while still providing effectively the same information as the options that are tied for second.
2/3 then 1/3 or 1/3 then 2/3 are tied for second because it means we spend the rest of the game socially solving these six people starting d3
1/3 then 1/3 is 4th because then you can at least socially examine those six while looking for the last person
Any other combination with 0/3 by d2 is Not Enough Progress for town in my opinion and we should not be attempting it.
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This pattern broadly makes logical and cohesive sense, although I didn’t really consider all these potential outcomes in such certain terms.
In this case, in objective terms we resolutely should leave the wagons from yesterday well enough alone and optimise for an immediate pool from our current line-up. In which scenario I’m happy to stick by my votes, or to shuffle a slot around as others perceive fit.
You’re voting Ash and Badeline as foils to one another, which I find intriguing if you’re trying to nominate two evils. Do you find Quail likely paired with either of them, or…?
…I have a random unsubstantiated tinfoil I want to pursue thinking about.
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agree to disagree
I think it’s pretty substantive.
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Not gonna be online for most of tomorrow. I’ll see if the arguments for going for 2/3 still convince me by then
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I recall them wanting to artificially make the game more exciting through both voting, and apparently acts such as this.