Maybot's Combinatorics Mafia - GAME OVER, MAFIA WIN

[pandora]

we should never be touching anyone from d1 beam yet

[Magnus]

0/3 keeps a POE of two wolves between six players and one wolf between three after three days.

1/3 with an overlapping check means an evil could have resided in both checks or there could be one between both, with no mechanical way of distinguishing which from the perspective of everyone except the overlapping player.

(Pandora posted a game logic check earlier to substantiate this, I’m just corroborating.)

We should be aiming for 2/3, which is optimal in this instance.

[Anonygoose]

Fair - i play at work and my posting was always going to go down over weekend altho i can see it looks like im in a dome so post less

Although if was the mafia idk why my plan would be to enter a dome on purpose and then put way less effort in when i get in lol.

[Anonygoose]

Drama

[Magnus]

Vote three players you think contain two new evils now, please.

[Anonygoose]

Ash is literally just puzzle posting and is mafia btw

VOTE: Ash
VOTE: Pandora
VOTE: Prisma

Is probably 2

[Anonygoose]

I agree this is probably best but if we hit another 1/3 its shit

[Anonygoose]

Also do you actually sus me or are you doing due diligence

[Anonygoose]

Actually id rather do me/redpanda/spooky

[Magnus]

As Pandora mentioned earlier, a 1/3 whilst aiming for a 2/3 is better than whilst aiming for a 0/3.

It’s due diligence as brought upon by Spooktunes, hence why I mentioned it doesn’t really matter Fusion or yourself is evil.

[Magnus]

@pandora

Here’s my opinion on the game theory

D1 Game Theory

1. 2/3: Best - You just need to find a second pool with the third wolf and you can start solving
2. 0/3: Fine - Ruling out 3 candidates only puts you on the same footing that wolves start with, but doing it on d1 means you can build a strong towncore and this can lead to the best D2 results
3. 1/3 Worst - You have negative information, but this is salvagable by D2 results. It can also be fucked up the most by D2.

D2 Game Theory

From 0/3

1. 0/3 - Best - You now have a pool of 6 people where the wolves definitely are. This is the best result on D2 and is the key reason why D1 0/3 is better than D1 1/3. You can now analyze these six people socially from the position of a strong towncore that everyone trusts
2. 2/3 - Fine - You now have a pool of six people where the last wolf definitely is. This is progress from this position but there’s a reason it’s the worst result coming from a 2/3
3. 1/3 - Disaster - This one is fucking rough. You need to find two wolves in six people which means you need to spend at LEAST another day solving to make sure you aren’t barking up the wrong tree entirely

From 2/3

1. 1/3: Best - If you did this correctly you now have a pool of 6 people where all of the wolves DEFINITELY are. You can now solve socially

2. 2/3: Good - do not attempt. It means you either have no new information (you checked two of the same people and confirmed that they are mafia) or muddy information (you checked two of the same people and maybe the new person is the third wolf you have no idea and can waste days figuring it out)

3. 0/3 - Worst: The pool for the final wolf has become 6 people instead of 9, but you’ve spent a day building entirely incorrect worlds and you needed to make more progress to keep up with the mafia.

From 1/3

1. 2/3 - Best - The same principle applies to 1/3 2/3 as applies to 2/3 1/3. Having a pool of 6 is ideal.
2. 1/3 - Fine - The final pool is 1 in 6 BUT you have two groops of three you can socially look at while hunting for the final wolf
3. 0/3 - Disaster - See 0/3 1/3

TL;DR

Wolves only need one 0/3 result to accomplish the same thing that town does in two 0/3 results or a 2/3 and a 1/3 result. A towncore d1 is great, but it gets less and less useful on subsequent days as wolves continue solving and town needs to make progress. Thus, a D2 0/3 is only useful in the context of a d1 0/3, it’s the worst possible option for D2 ofherwise. Also I think I’ve talked myself into thinking that a D1 0/3 isn’t that mathematically great because it’s harder to build off of, but that’s from the perspective of an uninformed townie, obviously from mason PoV it’s much closer to the N1 0/3 that is mafia’s second best outcome (after simply winning the game)

Pretty much just read this message, it’s better explained than what I could write.

[Anonygoose]

Thing is longterm realistically game will be over d5 latest. Mafia have way less combos to get masons as out of 9 not 12.

So say today we get a 1/3.

Then d3 what would plan be? Get 3 clears in the unchecked people?

That means d4 we have 3 clears and 9 nonclears with a v high number of combination of players of teams. Last game mafia made d4 last day as they guessed masons.

[Anonygoose]

Although never cross pollinating is cleaner I dont know if its a winning strategy

[Magnus]

Goose, I would like to be straightforward. This rebuttal completely misses the point and more so comes across as an intrinsic justification to be disagreeable about aiming for two evils. I would like to be charitable and presume I misunderstood, however. Can you please reword this in a way that makes sense?

[Chomps]

[unvote]

[Chomps]

UNVOTE

[Anonygoose]

Oh wow pandora cooking

[Anonygoose]

Hitting a 1/3 here is so bad, even if it is when were aiming for a 2/3, that not worth

[Magnus]

Conversely, it’s statistically and numerically superior to hitting a 0/3, so we ultimately have no alternative option.

[Anonygoose]

1/3 is not better than 0/3