Maybot's Combinatorics Mafia - GAME OVER, MAFIA WIN

[Maybot]

Anonygoose (9): Magnus, Chomps, Kanave, Badeline, Ash, LittleLee, RedPandas, pandora, spookycat27
Badeline (6): Magnus, Chomps, Kanave, Ash, LittleLee, Quail
RedPandas (8): Magnus, Chomps, Kanave, Ash, LittleLee, pandora, Quail, spookycat27
LittleLee (4): Badeline, RedPandas, pandora, spookycat27
Ash (2): Badeline, RedPandas

Not Voting (2): Anonygoose, FusionMoon314

[Ash]

Ok, we really need to consolidate and commit to either Badeline or LittleLee.

[Ash]

@Maybot

at the end of the day, if the mafia could swap their votes to win, they will be automatically assumed to do so. If there is a tie for who to jail even after the swap, the mafia will win the game.

Quick reminder that this is a mechanic.

[Ash]

I will continue to assert that Badeline has been weird this entire game and has been very tied to Goose this entire game.

[pandora]

@RedPandas

Day 1 mostly consisted of multiple wagon swaps with seemingly little preference between them, with the notable exception of Ash/Badeline/them, which they claim later contained one scum in Ash/Badeline. It seems pretty clear that Goose didn’t really care which wagons went through, as long as it contained themself (see pushes of Ash/Magnus/them, Me/Magnus/them, and settling on Chomps/Fusion/them.) This suggests most of them were either unlikely to go through, or were 1/3.

I follow

@RedPandas

Ash/Pandora/Badeline & Ash/Pandora/Prisma both likely hit 2/3, townread Lee the most out of the low-posters, votes Prisma/Lee/Badeline but thinks it’s 1/3, & pushes Ash/Fusion as s/s. Given they were basically universally townread and not believed to be the scum in the D1 1/3, most of this is likely an attempt to semi-control thread and push another 1/3 with not much at stake. It’s difficult to figure out what exactly is pairing from goose here, but most possible pairings make sense based on Goose’s votes alone, with the exception of Lee/Quail which would result in only their low poster wagons hitting 1/3.

Okay

@RedPandas

Ash/Badeline is unlikely, but still somewhat realistic.

I disagree based on the way they’ve been treating each other but okay

@RedPandas

Day 3 is different, as by around #1242 (?) they appear to have essentially given up and gone into antispew. They push back heavily against them & badeline being s/s, suggests jailing them with Badeline and one of Lee or Prisma, claiming they’d be confirmed town if the latter option hit 1/3.

This is one of the reasons why Badeline looks so alligned with Goose, the fact that goose was pushing against them being s/s so hard, but I can see this argument as leaning towards Lee since they were pushing Badeline/Prisma

@RedPandas

They suggest that them/badeline/ash will hit 1/3 and claim that they tunneled on ash, which suggests they were trying to push the wagons to something else. Theoretically this makes them/badeline/quail and them/badeline/ash more likely, but it can’t be ruled out that Goose may have been intentionally making it seem that way when it isn’t actually the pairs. This would, however, rely on Goose being confident the 3rd wagon slot would eventually move to whoever was scum in Lee/Ash, if there is scum within those two slots. Lee/Quail is again unlikely, as the EoD Lee wagon pretty much came out of nowhere and was 99% town-motivated.

I do not think it’s quail. I don’t think it’s badeline/ash. I follow all of your logic but I don’t see how it leads to Lee/Ash

[pandora]

I guess by excluding Lee/Quail as an option

[pandora]

Sure, you know what, fuck it. This is a Post. Let’s go gambling VOTE: gooseVOTE: leeVOTE: ash

This was a pretty high effort for a wolf about to win. given they just need to disrupt one slot so they could’ve just argued it was Badeline/ash or badeline/quail if they wanted

[LittleLee]

Aw, dangit.

[LittleLee]

I commit to Badeline.

It really feels out of my hands. This late. The start of this morning between them and Pandas felt way too desperate.

[Ash]

Would they not be currently losing under Goose-Badeline-Pandas?

[pandora]

@pandora

given they just need to disrupt one slot so they could’ve just argued it was Badeline/ash or badeline/quail if they wanted

.

[Ash]

Ah, gotcha.
Pretty sure that’s what they tried to do before realizing that there’s significant evidence against both possibilities, though.

[Ash]

Wait, actually, no, they pushed Lee at SoD4.

[Ash]

Ok, backread and reread, and I think I see the argument.
But I know that Goose-Lee-me is wrong, so Panda continually pushing that world seems to me like a desperate attempt to escape being caught.

[Ash]

Combine this with the events of EoD3, how wolfy Badeline has been pretty much all days besides today, and how tied together Bad and Goose have been, and Occam’s Razor is simply that Pandas is mafia here.

[Anonygoose]

[LittleLee]

Or until what happens?

[RedPandas]

scum wins?

[LittleLee]

Wrong! Reference averted!

[Anonygoose]