Omega Strikers FM - Saboteurs and Dissenter Win

[Ai.Mi]

@Estelle

the big benefit is actually numbers
shooting someone removes them from the game

Notice how he was scumreading Luna, bt not shooting them this allowed him to continue scumreading Luna while conserving the shot in case he needs it

So to summarize, you think that wolf!Drekar was pretending to be tunneled on Luna in thread, and didn’t want to shoot them so they wouldn’t have to fake re-evaluate their read on Luna. So instead they holstered, and then put on a big show in thread about the benefits of holstering and calling everyone else a dummy.

I will consider this as I’m reading Drekar’s start of day, but I’m also comparing it against the Occam’s Razor of Drekar just being a stubborn town about the whole thing

[Estelle]

@Ai.Mi

So to summarize, you think that wolf!Drekar was pretending to be tunneled on Luna in thread, and didn’t want to shoot them so they wouldn’t have to fake re-evaluate their read on Luna. So instead they holstered, and then put on a big show in thread about the benefits of holstering and calling everyone else a dummy.

I will consider this as I’m reading Drekar’s start of day, but I’m also comparing it against the Occam’s Razor of Drekar just being a stubborn town about the whole thing

Yes this is what I believe
Their confidence did not match their night action and I believe that’s because they are a wolf

[X_OS (X)]

I wouldn’t vote anyone out for claiming neighbour but its concerning that no one did.

[Ai.Mi]

@X_OS

In the context that I’m a viable suspect, he could have easily omgus’d me especially since I think my own reasons for suspecting him were bad. Literally ‘I don’t remember his posts’ I don’t think it’s neccessarily protown to townread people suspecting you as it has mixed results depending on the scumreadder’s actual alignment but would call it anti-wolf.

It’s different if person suspecting him was someone widely townread because he wouldn’t have the leverage to omgus

@X_OS

would be most inclined to vote Rune at the moment (again for basically not remembering anything they said) Luna belongs in that category too but they felt more tonally pure. Don’t remember Ai.Mi’s posts either but might be solvable via their info.

@X_OS

also wanted to note that do have one new thought: I think Rune’s recent posts look wayy better than they did D1 and the Atlas push is unlikely to come from scum since scum would probably expect not to succeed actually lynching Atlas while town!rune would genuinely believe they need to lynch him Atlas. I also think him townleaning me (I don’t think he ever said this D1) despite me being a PoE suspect who suspects him is townie.

One thing on X, I investigated their development on Rune, and their progression was laid out in thread, and not just copied from someone else. Part of me think this is evidence towards a simple Rune/X world that fits my priors, with X working to move Rune out of the spotlight. But barring that, this decreases the overall scum equity on X.

[Ai.Mi]

Do you have a lead on who Juliette actually neighbored? I’ve seen you and others talk about this in thread, but it doesn’t help us solve unless you think we can get something out of it, then it’s just idle speculation.

Who do you actually think is scum right now?

[Ai.Mi]

I am easily distracted and will go back to towncasing Drekar

[X_OS (X)]

because parity check

[X_OS (X)]

almost eveyrone townread you tho

[Dubu]

guize, hammer time was like an hour ago. wtf?

[Luna]

Yeah, the excessive defending has made things more confusing. Def some obnoxious pocketing going on but who knows from which direction atp

[Estelle]

I don’t have time to explain why you guys are throwing by not voting rn

[Estelle]

If you can’t agree now imqgine actually believing we can spend less then 24 for a day

[Luna]

Why don’t you detail us your thoughts on Rune after you’re done with the Drekar analysis plz?

[X_OS (X)]

i haven’t been playing great, I agree

[Estelle]

X for the sake of sanity can you vote drek
I gave my reasoning
I think my reasoning is good, if someone has disagreement ping me or otherwise I won’t read ur walls talking about why he’s town if you don’t address then
we need to execute by yesterday

[Ai.Mi]

I think a lot of my read on Drekar is tonal. Which, normally, is probably the least confident way to read someone, but I have a very strong tonal read.

@Drekar

I didn’t shoot anyone, anyone who is surprised by this has a very poor understanding of mech.

Even parity, there are plenty of ways for people to die though to shift parity to odd, eg. X, Dubu, Era, wolves dying
It’s not like a night 1 vig is necessary for ensuring late game parity. After I shoot I’m also basically just a vanilla town - no threat to wolves. Wolves want a night 1 shot when it’s most likely to miss rather than a shot later in the game - where they have to make a hard decision on whether they risk killing me, risk me shooting them, risk them taking actions to mess with my action risking them getting caught.

I will happily fight anyone who disagrees on this, I’m sorry you’re bad at the game, git gud.

I have been this townie out of step with everyone else. I recognize the behavior. “After I shoot I’m also basically just a vanilla town”- Drekar clearly does not trust the rest of town to do anything, and dreads wasting their one chance to singlehandedly win the game for town.

@Drekar

That Kai wagon was awful.

@Drekar

Anyone who actually thought Kai was likely to be a wolf should feel horribly ashamed of themselves

They’re lecturing town on bad kills. Again, this is bold from scum. I think there are some scum players who do this, but not many.

I’m really anxious about the timer so I’m going to start by just emphasizing going over these posts and looking for the wolf play. We get a really concise insight into Drekar’s worldview, which feels very alone. They feel like they have to solve everything.

@Drekar

Wolves would be lusting hard at the idea of me blowing my shot early. It makes the game so much easier for them to play.
If I holster the shot, then it’s harder for them. If Era is a wolf does Era have to worry about healing their partner because I might shoot them rather than just healing the towniest slot to look good for Estelle? And if Era heals their partner, might that out them to Estelle? If Dubu is a wolf then does Dubu need to worry about blocking me? Does Rune need to worry about swapping? Does X need to worry about guarding? Half the slots in this game, if they’re wolves, would love the additional freedom of me not having my shot anymore. And so they can suck it, I’ll shoot when I damn well want to. And luckily for you all, I’m town, using my action in the optimal way, and I will not now or ever succumb to thread pressure, which is likely encouraged by wolves because of how much easier it makes their game. I’m not shooting just for the sake of shooting when I’m not confident in the shot. Not giving wolves a free kill AND turning myself into a VT LMFAO.

This is continued in 801.

I don’t think it’s reasonable to assume Drekar is capable of just faking this kind of emotion as scum. They are showing they feel alone and distrust everyone, and I think both are hallmarks of a town player.

I wish I could make words better right now, but I feel like the proof is in Drekar’s posts, not mine.

[X_OS (X)]

lol

[X_OS (X)]

VOTE: Drekar

[X_OS (X)]

was already going to do this

[Estelle]

Ty
Someone hammer