Poor Approximations of Catgirls - Thread 1

[Moonwink]

I was skipping around through people’s ISOs at that time, particularly ones that I didn’t really have any thoughts about at the time. :3

[Nyarchmage]

TARGET	VOTES	VOTED BY
Arete	6/12	Arctic (#1362); LASERpointer (#3152); Marshal (#3019); nutella (#2829); WindwardAway (#1526); Wisdom (#3218)
Wazza	4/12	Arete (#948); Hippopablompoyeetus (#2824); JohnCarter (#166); Marluxion (#593)
Squirrel2412	5/12	bladescape (#2877); Mistyx (#2179); nightingale (#2895)
JohnCarter	2/12	Vulgard (#3275); Wazza (#120)
Marshal	1/12	Moonwink (#3343)
InternetStranger	1/12	Illwei (#2524)
WindwardAway	1/12	Kyubey (#3155)
Not Voting	5	alana; InternetStranger; Millium; min (#318); Squirrel2412 (#566)

[Moonwink]

Hmm… Arete asked me to leave the Squirrel wagon when it was tied with their own.

Now that I’ve left it, it actually put his in the lead. Interesting… :3

[WindwardAway]

/vote Wazza @Nyarchmage

[Marluxion]

@min

moon wisdom convos dont feel awk which is a good look (not w/w?)

both players are strong wolves and both are easily able to converse without looking awkward

imo both are among the top 5 best wolves in the playerlist

to find people who aren’t w/w you’re gonna need to look at pushes and vote timings post flips. the fol average of being able to communicate without seeming weird isn’t really gonna work here

[Marluxion]

/vote Nutella @Nyarchmage

[alana]

Tbf I did hard scumread you on D4 before that but then decided to lynch my other scumread Kito who was very sure that the scum team was Sean and Fext and flipped town. This made me later think that Sean and Fext were scum and their plan was to set up mislynches in a certain order by getting rid of kito then getting me to hammer town!you at lylo because I thought you were lhf while fext looked more teamed with your teammate sean than you

[Moonwink]

@Marluxion

@min

moon wisdom convos dont feel awk which is a good look (not w/w?)

both players are strong wolves and both are easily able to converse without looking awkward

imo both are among the top 5 best wolves in the playerlist

to find people who aren’t w/w you’re gonna need to look at pushes and vote timings post flips. the fol average of being able to communicate without seeming weird isn’t really gonna work here

I was going to be selfish and let Min believe we couldn’t be w/w due to that, but yeah, this is unfortunately true. XD

[Moonwink]

I think I’m gonna get back to bed now. G’night y’all. <3

(I’m planning on ISOing you before EoD, Marl, so I’ll probably have more stuff to talk about with you soon. <3)

[alana]

Also the ‘she was all over the place’ wasn’t trying to brag about being able to read you it was stating a fact about how you acted as scum on that day

[Arete]

Marshal is probably a wolf

(and also you should listen to me about it)

It has a lot of words, I’m sorry. If you don’t want to read all of the words, I recommend reading the section labelled “Important context post” and then the quotes in the Vul and Arctic sections (you don’t have to read the full sections) and drawing your own conclusions, but I do think that ‘actually reading the whole thing’ is possible.

I am writing this to persuade people not to solve Marshal, I already did the ‘solving Marshal’ thing and having done that I am writing this post.

Important context post that I’m quoting out of order

@Marshal

vulgard and arctic can both be literally whatever alignment atp i only wolfread them because I was mad at their arguments against me

this is the post that made me go from ‘Marshal is probably a wolf but could be town having a super super super off game’ to ‘Marshal is a wolf and should die’

I am quoting it at the beginning so that people can keep in mind, while reading the rest of this post, that supposedly, taking Marshal at her word, she didn’t really wolfread them she was mostly suspicious because she was mad at them

and I think that looking at her read on Vul and Arctic, that is clearly false

General approach stuff

So there are a couple reasons why I think Marshal’s approach is wolfy.

• As town Marshal tends to focus more on building a towncore, she does also do the pushing wolfreads thing but the main thing she focuses on is towncoring people (to the point that at one point she correctly called me out for failing to acknowledge that this was her playstyle – I think this was Meowntainado but I’m not sure). As scum she tends to focus less on making a towncore and more on tunnelling her individual “wolfreads” to try to get them misexe’d – to be clear, she does also push people as V, she just additionally tries to build a towncore while doing it. I think her play this game is much more typical of her wolf game, she has made like 1 post that actually expresses a towncore + a handful of posts expressing villagereads but has basically done nothing to actually turn those townreads into something actually resembling a towncore or convince other people of them.
• As town she mostly does not try to discredit people for bad reasons, as scum she does that a lot – like, in Meowntainado, when I was actively trying to get her misexe’d and making the world’s worst push on her, she still heard me out and considered my slot fairly, whereas in (mentally insert a list of every Marshal scumgame you personally are aware of) she did not do that. This isn’t just about her interactions with me, to be clear, I do think those are wolfy but even if you cut literally all the Aretestuff from here I think the case is still correct.

Discrediting Arctic

throughout her early interactions with Arctic, Marshal basically tried to shut him down, box him out, and generally cause people not to listen to him, for reasons that mostly kind of sucked

KEEP IN MIND THAT MARSHAL SAID “i only wolfread them because I was mad at their arguments against me”

@Arctic

this sod feels like a weird mexican standoff where everyone is awkwardly waiting for someone else to make the first content post

@Marshal

Maybe it’s because you are mafia and feel that way ever think about that

@Arctic

contemplating burying myself further just to get the thread to actually do something before i go to sleep

@Marshal

well if your goal is to look like mafia this post does a great job

I actually think those are okay/not wolfy, I’m mostly quoting them as context for the rest of her read

@Marshal

vote arctic @Nyarchmage

@Marshal

Arctic is probably mafia

@Marshal

it was because everyone and their (my) mother came out of the woodworks to defend you your posts are mid but it feels like wolves are worried about you becoming the consensus early push and plausibly pushed forth townreads to preemptively prevent that.

Who this indicates idrc but I’ve hit on this exact feeling before

This reason is pretty clearly fabricated. Like if you strip out all the rhetoric Marshal is arguing “Arctic is Mafia because people are defending her which indicates that wolves wanted to stop her from being pushed” – that’s not a strawman, that’s her actual argument. She just completely ignores the possibility of, for instance, Arctic being town who is being defended correctly by towns.

She also makes what would theoretically be a super relevant gamestate read if her read is correct, and just … doesn’t do anything with it. “Who this indicates idrc” – if she actually believed that Arctic was a wolf because she was being defended by wolves, I think she would have at least checked who was defending her.

@Marshal

the fact that arctic is being testy on my push as if it’s some kind of scientific experiment reaction he totally planned all along and epically owned me makes me think I’m right

this post is ~fine

@Arctic

@Marshal

the fact that arctic is being testy on my push as if it’s some kind of scientific experiment reaction he totally planned all along and epically owned me makes me think I’m right

It actually was
I wrote down some reasons why I voted you in case this came up

Three reasons

1. I wanted to see the votecount spreadsheet thing
2. Marshal was insisting that all my posts were wolfy, and I wanted to see whether this was a bid to produce content or if it were actually something she seemingly believed in, and if it were the latter I’d consider the fact she didn’t vote me wolfy
3. the talk with the alt just felt like bluster which established presence while avoiding real interaction. admittedly the purpose for this as either alignment is pretty hard to discern, but i suppose if it’s a wolf alt it could be an early attempt to look unaligned.

@Marshal

Cool post too bad you could easily make it up after the fact

@Marshal

Straight up don’t buy it at all I think this is the attempt to awkwardly orient himself in thread after a bad opener with help from partner(s)

Arctic makes a villagery post and Marshal goes out of her way to try to make it look wolfy, I could understand a tunnelled villager not townreading it/thinking people shouldn’t townread her for it but I really feel like Marshal is bending over backwards to try to make it look specifically-wolfy

I think I’m explaining that badly

closer-to-what-I mean is … the conclusion is written before the reasons, Marshal started out making the argument that that post was wolfy and then came up with reasons why it was wolfy, instead of just trying to figure out if it was wolfy or not

@Marshal

uninterested in relenting

Ftr alana fits the bill v well with arctic partner

this post is specifically terrible in the context of Marshal saying “i only wolfread them because I was mad at their arguments against me”

like I’m trying to imagine town-Marshal getting mad that Arctic was scumreading her, OMGUSing her, and then warping all the rest of her reads to also be about that, while aware on some level that her push on Arctic was born from OMGUS

@Marshal

Awkward wolf arctic is uneasy about shitpost phase and retroactively trying to rectify the fact that it showed by calling his posts and votes a reaction test.

Importantly he’s also looking to rectify this awkwardness by getting some sort of push or read going because that’s a lot easier to fake and can help him find his rythm, I think it’s a push on me because he knows I’ll fight back and it gives him something to do that isn’t look wolfy

this (specifically the second paragraph) is another read that starts with the conclusion – ‘Arctic is wolf, because she’s trying to get a push or read going’ – and makes no consideration of the possibility of her being town trying to get a push or read going

@Marshal

man arctic really is just straight up wolf

this one is also inconsistent with the world where she didn’t really believe it and was mostly just mad

@Marshal

Arctic and wazza could both be mafia I think arctic could have seen me make that post about him/wazza and intentionally pivot hard towards wazza to make it look like wazza is v

@Marshal

Yeah but he made a big wordsy post afterwards he didn’t have to commit and coulda treated it like his vote on me but i think it’s v possible he saw that and intentionally overdid it to make me feed into a world where y’all are unaligned

this is another conclusion-first post, but at least it’s honest about being that

@Marshal

Arcys response just ain’t it he could have taken plenty of less agressive responses but the one he’s taking directly fits with a wolf looking to forcefully establish self in thread.

I also think he’d be a lot less gung-ho on wazza specifically after purgatory cuz I thought she was wolfy and he agreed he would prob think that way too if he wasn’t host so to immediately pile on wazza feels likelier agenda than organic

The “It’s sad but you could do this as town because you tunnel me every game” stuff is also hella gross direct way of trying to guilt me off of the push

this post is actually fine/something town-Marshal could plausibly believe

@Marshal

LITERALLT yes don’t act like it’s laughable you know the comparison is there you are an extremely skilled wolf and know these things. Don’t act like you don’t understand jt

this is overrepresenting how bad Arctic’s post was to make her look worse (to be fair Marshal does do that as town sometimes, but in the context of the rest of her Iso I think it’s agenda-y)

@Marshal

I misread you like once stfu

You have incredibly meowtainado vibes which may I remind you I had you absolutely nailed down

this is just flat wrong even if Arctic is a wolf which makes me think it’s deliberately BS

legit the only way he’s similar is that in both games he started wolfclaiming when he got pressured

@Marshal

Stop painting me like the ultimate willager and any reads on you from me invalid I don’t just auto tunnel you stop acting like I fo

she has several posts like this and it feels like a significant overreaction to Arctic pointing out that Marshal has misread her – like she’s making what Arctic was saying sound more extreme by using loaded phrasing like “painting me like the ultimate willager” when Arctic wasn’t actually doing that

@Marshal

@Arctic

@Marshal

You have incredibly meowtainado vibes which may I remind you I had you absolutely nailed down

and then you let it go, sucks

This is straight up inflammatory/trying to bait me
Why would you say this

shades Arctic for something that wasn’t actually wolf-AI and that I don’t think she would believe was wolf-AI

@Marshal

You can’t possibly be sorry when you directly put shit like this in the same post

@Arctic

The best part is when I am actually mafia, you’ll get no validation from it being correct because I’ll just point out how you wolfread me every game

This is

1. Absurdly CFTWR vibes
2. STILL INFLAMMATORY it’s a direct fuck you

continues to shade Arctic for being inflammatory despite that not being wolfy or something that I think she would think is wolfy

@LASERpointer

Tuna for Thought

State of thread could indicate v!Marshal and v!Arctic were set up to tunnel each other and destroy readability. Wolves could have seen this and dipped with their work done for them.

@Marshal

I’m going to actually eat you consume you from head to toe

this is exactly what he’s looking for

gets mad at Laser for saying they could be V/V (I also think this could be TMI, since she wasn’t repping a super strong Laser townread at that point and she jumps to the assumption that Laser is a villa being fooled

@Marshal

@Arete

also @Marshal why is Arctic being inflammatory wolf indicative?

It wasn’t the first time but the second time he was like “oh sorry I’m just mad” but in the same post continued to post inflammatory things which makes me think he just wanted to make me mad instead of actually feeling bad for flaming me

this is a bad argument that I think she would recognize is bad, like, ‘tilted villa feels bad for tilting but keeps doing it’ is incredibly common

then she starts pushing Vul for a bit (this will be covered in the next session) and then comes back and decides Arctic is actually town

@Marshal

I think arctic is town

when Arctic expressed paranoia, this is how she responded:

@Arctic

Dedicating a separate post to this because I feel it’s important

Marshal has put me on the top of their last readlist, and I… ugh
I have a sick feeling I’m massively wrong on everything and wolf Marshal recognized this and decided to use me as a snowplower to kill Vul/Arete (both are town if marshal wolf) and whoever else I’m misreading, especially because the timing of her switch on me coincides with both mine and her own scumreads on vul and arete
Her reasoning to move me back was because she… backread my takes and saw she actually agreed? Like this kinda does just read as though it was a strategical move, furthered by how this level of reasoning really doesn’t justify putting me as their number one top town, like even above marl

@Marshal

unsure how this tracks because I started townreading you before you and vul had that little spat but I am mafia and pocketing you you are getting pocketed so good work

I actually went to check and what had specifically happened at that point was that Arctic had started to tunnel Wind, I don’t super townread Wind but I do think that Marshal randomly reversing her read for no reason + Arctic starting to tunnel other people could easily be Marshal trying to get her to do literally what he describes here and I don’t really see why Marshal would randomly 180 for no reason as town if she was actually confident

Discrediting Vul

@Marshal

Vulgard can be mafia
Not is but can be

this is literally the first mention of Vul in her Iso

@Marshal

A lot of his posts feel like they fit a specific worldview in which he’s trying really hard to combat certain correct consensus takes and power wolf super hard

Mainly get this vibe from him trying to untownleader JC but the min stuff and arete v read too

this would not be a completely awful read from the perspective of v!Marshal who actually believed those things but it would still be a pretty bad one

like she’s not actually looking at Vul’s reasoning, she’s just going after Vul for disagreeing – which she often does for less incorrect villas as wolf, and I think Vul is plausibly one of the most correct players in the game right now

@Marshal

min stuff looks good surface level but I kinda think it could just b trying really hard to not let min slip into threadspewed town, seems very over incredulous at all the v reads there when I think it’s relatively straightforward even without a huge case in thread

this is pretty blatantly forcing a conclusion

@Marshal

It doesn’t matter what you say your motivations are you could lie about it

The effect of your posts is yanking min back from that tier of “everyone agrees this is town” and forcing more discussion on them which if min is town is a super good thing to do as wolf especially because they are usually elimmable if stuck in PoE

town Marshal doesn’t believe that people’s motivations are irrelevant because they ‘could lie about it’

as is this is, like, explicitly ‘Vul wolf for disagreeing with me’

@Marshal

@Arctic

this makes sense if min is a villager
but why is min a villager? - you seem to describe it as straightforward here
i saw you said the reverse read applies to vulgard if min is a wolf but idk why you’d be confident on min v in the first place
i am ngl i townread them because of vibes but atp it doesn’t really hold up, but i don’t wolfread the slot either

Again you’re isolating that part of a greater read that was vul’s behavior reads as trying to shut down correct consensus town reads. Min was just an example and not even the strongest one, I think he could be doing it with JC too.

It wasn’t even that strong of a read but it feels like everyone is nitpicking it going “well what if the inverse is true what about that marshal huh huh” which kiiinda makes me think I’ve absolutely hit on this one and people are ignoring the context of the read to try and turn it into an unalign read instead of what it is now

another gamestate read that she does absolutely zero with except using it to support her push

@Marshal

I think in those vul w worlds slots like nightingale and millium and hippo to an extent look partnered for making the fact that there are so many reads in thread or the reads in general weird

(apart from this which is like, barely even related)

@Marshal

If vulgard makes one more extremely unsubtle “oh yeah just btw just saying everyone who’s wolfreading me is mafia/silly/makes no sense”

He isn’t really directly addressing the wolfreads against them and instead shading them in general which makes me think he kinda just can’t do it and i would like that to change if he’s v

Arctic is only doing it to me which I still dislike but can see more from town

@Marshal

It’s still those “well my wolfreaders come from my PoE ” type posts, arctic has an excuse but you I’m less willing to be forgiving on

misrepping how Vul was responding to pushes to make him look worse

@Marshal

the initial vulgard read was truly intended as just some tinfoil to throw out for later but his extreme visceral reaction to it makes me think it has merit

@Marshal

I’m, like, pretty strongly confident on vul!wolf

I think he’s trying to scare me out of the read because he knows I townread JC and Min and putting some big alarm post of “ohh ohh if both of them flip town marshal HAS TO DIE!!!” is meant to make me afraid of some thunderdome with vul later down the line and making me want to work around the read

this is where she pivots to more heavily pushing Vul

it lines up very closely with when Vul started to seriously say that Marshal could be wolf, which is consistent with Marshal’s modus operandi as wolf of trying to get people pushing her voted out

and not consistent with her townplay because the logic makes no fucking sense

@Marshal

@Vulgard

i think you misread
i think if these two are v/v, then you’re super likely to be a wolf who pushed me by tming two people i tried to “fight v reads on”

if they are not v/v, then you’re less likely to be a wolf, because then, you were wrong on at least one of these assumptions, pointing toward a lack of actual tmi - but i still think you could be a wolf, because the very fact it was a chainsaw push is fishy

this makes sense
still think the post itself is meant to be an intimidation tactic but the logic itself checks

‘you disproved my entire argument but I’m going to keep shading you for it’

@Vulgard

realistically you’ve already lost the battle if you’re a wolf because people will remember my read on you after i flip

talk about other slots

@Marshal

well i strongly dislike how he is repping the reads on him (not just mine, but especially mine) because he doesnt address the reads themselves and kinda just shades the people who have them or imply that they are a joke.

His “well if you are wolf you just lost the battle because people will remember my reads” post is especially bad because it implicitly implies that JC and min are town. Which is bad because

• He doesn’t think they are town
• he also historically is extremely bad at making pre-flip spew reads on me. I didn’t really want to bring this up because I believe he can improve but I strongly struggle to see a world in which he looks at the last game he was w/v against me, called me not w/w with the ENTIRE WOLFTEAM, and then goes “yeah i totally got her with this one”

The rest of his posts are pretty lackluster, I truly dont see where he got a lot of his reads and while he has a generally roundabout way of playing I can usually see threads of trackable reasoning whereas here I just don’t see that.

this post is incredibly misreppy, like, Vul said that Marshal ‘lost the battle’ explicitly because if he gets voted out people would remember his Marshalread, it has nothing to do with his read on JC/min, this is completely ignoring Vul’s actual point to make him look bad

@Marshal

vulgard told me to stop w/w reading him with people so I am going to do not that and let everyone know I think hippo/vul have pretty high partner equity ngl and its making me consider dropping him down

mostly wolfy in the context of her later claim that actually she had never really wolfread Arctic/Vul

Discrediting me

@Marshal

I could see a vul/arete duo dunno what to think of arctic being the first to mention it

Arete gives me bad vibes like they are laying down the groundwork/progression to bury me but don’t want to do it yet, huge meowtainado vibes I just think they are feeling it out but not really giving many actual comments on my stances

misreps me by claiming I hadn’t given many actual comments on her stances when I specifically called out several of her stances, that I had already explained repeatedly why I disagreed with, as being stances I disagreed with, which makes me feel like she was just trying to come up with some sort of reason to push me

@Marshal

yeah that feels like one of the things arete would find villagery so the fact that they didn’t (or at least appeared unable to understand why it could be) felt sketcho

this is also misreppy, the read in question was one where I basically understand why people might think that I just thought they were wrong

@Marshal

I in fact kinda dont get any of aretes reads even when I try to look at them like I would as a wolf and am trying to pocket them and predict their reads it kinda feels like they chose a bunch of people to be alignments and made the reasons for why

Marshal could believe this as town but I think it’s kind of weird since the last time we played together (Sorc17) she openly acknowledged that she couldn’t do the predict-y thing anymore (…and tried to use it to shade me)

@Marshal

@Arete

Arctic’s been oscillating between townie feeling readsy posts and posts that make me say 'wtf you are wolf ’ but I think he’s probably town, villas having a few posts I hate isn’t super uncommon and he’s villagery outside of that

Arctic mild v but here’s al the progression incase I take it back

@Arete

• briefly thought min was lockwolf then realized I was probably misreading his posts. @min: what did you mean here?

@min

my push wasn’t even real

lmao

• Wind hasn’t been townie yet (yes I know she has a single digit postcount but they aren’t townie posts) (eta: it’s double digit now but they still aren’t townie)
• I disagree with like all of Marshal’s reads which is >rand wolf for her but I don’t want to push it yet in case the issue is just that I’m being a dumbass and wolfsiding. also @Marshal why is Arctic being inflammatory wolf indicative?

Min w but here’s the progression incase I take it back

Wind w but here’s the progression incase I take it back

Marshal w but here’s the progression incase I take it back

——

Many of their posts have reads that are “This person is this alignment but [specific thing could change that]”, which I noticed them doing a lot in meowtainado.

I’m on mobile and boutta drive home but u al can see what I mean

this post is legitimately terrible, I know I’m biased but like

• it goes from ‘they did this in one specific wolf game once’ to ‘therefore they are a wolf’ when in fact it’s a personality thing that they should be aware of because they’ve played enough games with me to know that
• legit the entire argument here is that ‘having nuanced reads at all’ means you must be a wolf setting up progression
• also some of it is just completely inaccurate? ‘Wind hasn’t been townie yet (yes I know she has a single digit postcount but they aren’t townie posts) (eta: it’s double digit now but they still aren’t townie)’ is not ‘setting up progression to take it back’ it’s ‘making a wolfread’

@Marshal

I think mist is maybe the most obvious villager in the game after reading her iso and the fact that arete hasn’t identified them as such or even said… basically anything about her sketches me out because I know kat (or pretend-kat) sees what I see

I think that’s one arete should have gotten to right now even if the rest of the thread hasn’t and the fact that they are ignoring her means they are probably just mafia

I think Marshal randomly bringing this up at a point when I had been gone from thread for 8 hours and therefore unable to read any Mistposts, and openly not caught up before that, is kind of agenda-y, but in maximum fairness to her she could have just not noticed or she could have been talking about posts from before I left

@Marshal

I still get that huge waters-testing vibe from arete especially on reads on specifically me

it’s slowly shifted more and more confidently on the basises of

• them not agreeing with my reads (reasoning that does nothing for nobody else, all it does is set up progression for them. I think it could be real if they are town because I kinda feel the same way but I think i’ve provided significantly more substantiative reasoning on why)
• my arguments with vulgard/arctic

the latter reasoning especially now just feels like exploiting v/v stuff

either of these reasons could individually be plausible but together they make no sense, she’s saying that I’m wolf for disagreeing with her and also wolf for the thing where I said that I disagreed with her and that that was wolfy and that therefore I was trying to use v/v violence against her

like this is another post that pretty clearly started with a conclusion

@Marshal

I fully expect to get thunderdomed w/ arete by EoD, i’ve towned against them before and they have a very specific way of leading up to specifically thunderdoming me (upick & meowtainado are examples. I died n1 in meowtainado but arete very nearly kept me alive and thunderdomed me and I still got the huge vibe). I am not confident enough to do it myself and also have a bad history of thunderdoming villagers in the past month or so, but it’s getting to that point.

The fact that they are dancing around it and waiting more than vul or arctic who got into huge arguments with me makes me think they actually fit the bill of mafia the most instead of the earlier two who in the end kinda get nothing out of it.

this is preemptively trying to discredit the fact that I’m going to push her by being like ‘oh of course Arete is going to push me but you shouldn’t listen to them because they’re a wolf’

Weird treatment of specifically the me + Vul dynamic

@Marshal

A lot of his posts feel like they fit a specific worldview in which he’s trying really hard to combat certain correct consensus takes and power wolf super hard

Mainly get this vibe from him trying to untownleader JC but the min stuff and arete v read too

@Marshal

I could see a vul/arete duo dunno what to think of arctic being the first to mention it

Arete gives me bad vibes like they are laying down the groundwork/progression to bury me but don’t want to do it yet, huge meowtainado vibes I just think they are feeling it out but not really giving many actual comments on my stances

@Marshal

I actually think it could be exactly that with arete trying to decide if they should kill me or make a shot at elimming me

The rest of their reads do nothing for me which is weird at this point in the game because I can oftentimes just lock them town

starts off shading us because Vul is townreading me

I think this is before she even started scumreading me?

anyways my issue with these posts is that she basically just starts with ‘what if Arete and Vul are w/w’ and goes from there, like she doesn’t consider the possibility that Vul could just be … town and right

@Marshal

I actually don’t think vul and arete are w/w, I feel like they’d do something preplanned but it feels like on both sides they are putting forward some lukewarm read, if one of them is wolf it’s so that they have the progression to hard buddy without scaring the other if the wolf ends up getting townread by the other, but also not get caught overextended if the town thunderdomes the wolf

Could also be v/v

but then decides we aren’t for unclear reasons – I think that Vul is a villager and she realized that she needed an argument that wouldn’t be disproven after a single flip

this also has the same problem where she’s starting from a conclusion and then finding evidence for it, and just not considering the world where we’re town and right, this time she does technically acknowledge the other possibility but in a very tepid way

this is a weaker point overall but it’s there

Bad reaction to questioning of her

So that last post I just quoted actually had a couple of people question it:

@nutella

hmm this hurts my brain

@Hippopablompoyeetus

U managed to move away from the waffle for a bit but this post has brought u back to the darkside

@Arctic

@Marshal

I actually don’t think vul and arete are w/w, I feel like they’d do something preplanned but it feels like on both sides they are putting forward some lukewarm read, if one of them is wolf it’s so that they have the progression to hard buddy without scaring the other if the wolf ends up getting townread by the other, but also not get caught overextended if the town thunderdomes the wolf

Could also be v/v

this is quite uh
weird
how does “could be v/v” track with them being your probably biggest two scumreads lol

and here is how she reacted:

@Marshal

literally it was obvious what the post was saying

@Marshal

Kinda feel like people don’t want me to consider they could be v/v

@Marshal

Why do you not want my post to imply they could both be villages

@Marshal

No i said it made sense if one of them was a wolf but also could make sense if both of them were v and just… had real reads on each other

@Marshal

@Arctic

but then you say they’re treating each other in a way that makes sense from w/w

I also don’t say that I say if one of them is wolf the treatment of the other makes way more sense if the other is a villager, hence them being unaligned.

@Marshal

I feel like Im constantly being manipulated into thinking my posts make no sense everyone is constantly implying that everything I post makes no sense it is extremely bothering me I know I have valuable insights and people act like I’m speaking another language

@Marshal

Everyone is constantly like “this is word salad” or “nothing you / anyone is saying makes sense” and “I don’t understand this/that” when I have specifically been trying to make it easier to understand my posts so I could work with them

I just feel like I’m being gaslit into thinking all I say makes no sense but ngl I am starting to believe it cuz idr know if my reads are really that good

so first of all, this is an absurd overreaction to the point of being obviously fake. Like, a coule of people disagreeing with you is not the same thing as gaslighting.

second of all, she’s trying to look like the victim, like, ‘oh, people are trying to prevent me from saying that they’re v/v! this is so terrible! woe is me’ when no one is actually doing that

third of all she does literally zero with it, like, in other cases this game when she’s claimed to think people are trying to prevent her from expressing some read she’s been super reading into it and here she’s just not, at all (I think this is because the obvious reading conflicts with her agenda)

posts I think are villagery

she does have a few and I’m including them for completeness

@Marshal

pretty sure OP wording heavily implies no multiball

it’s a thought I had (which is also, like, a very good look for night but i havent said it cuz ive been occupied) but the wording of

There will be an informed minority and an uninformed majority. There may or may not be “Lone Wolf” or “Traitor”-type roles. There may or may not be third party roles.

saying “AN” informed minority makes me think just one, unless it’s a “3rd party” that’s actually a 2nd wolf faction but I personally doubt that

I vaguely believe that she’d actually had that thought and then found it townie when Night did, like ‘same hat’

@Marshal

I genuinely think kyubey is just a person and frankly probably town for the thread sorta shushing them off to the side and saying stuff abt them being a wolf mechanic without actually being forced to address them or their reads

I also did this but I am mafia so it makes sensei

(ignoring the last sentence) I think this is a villagery think to think of

@Marshal

Jonny carter is again town tho for the kyubey vote thing its a hella towny tinfoil to think it could not vote and pushing the slot to vote meow

also this

I don’t think any of this outweighs the points against her but I thought I should list them for completeness/fairness

why you should listen to me

A big part of Marshal’s MO as a wolf is getting people who wolfread her voted out, and then convincing everyone, ‘oh, I just got them voted out because they were so wolfy, if only they hadn’t been so wolfy and made such terrible pushes I wouldn’t have inadvertently done that!’ (this is a strawman of how she does it but it is how she does it) and generally trying to get people to not listen to her. I realize that I am probably not going to convince anyone today but – that’s what’s going to happen tomorrow, almost certainly.

I expect that tomorrow-Marshal will point out that I have mistunnelled her before, which is true, but hasn’t been true for years, I have a better grasp of her playstyle now.

(alternatively we can just flip her today and not have to deal with tomorrow-Marshal, that is also an option)

I am not going to say she is literally 100% lock wolf, but I am very confident, and know her better than all of the non-FoLers and many of the FoLers. If it makes you feel better you can decide in advance to blame me if she flips town.

massping

• @alana
• @Arctic
• @Arete
• @bladescape
• @Hippopablompoyeetus
• @Illwei
• @InternetStranger
• @JohnCarter
• @Kyubey
• @LASERpointer
• @Marluxion
• @Marshal
• @Millium
• @min
• @Mistyx
• @Moonwink
• @nightingale
• @nutella
• @Squirrel2412
• @Vulgard
• @Wazza
• @WindwardAway
• @Wisdom

[Arete]

it’s 5 AM and I am falling asleep where I’m sitting but I’ll stick around at least a little longer for questions

[Marluxion]

my god my cat is making it impossible to focus on the thread
he’s sitting between me and my monitor like the fucking guardian sphinx of the desert, protecting me from the horrors of the mouse pointer

anyway

nutella’s pushes all feel like “where can i put my vote and pressure without taking too much pressure in return”, it doesn’t feel like she believes in any of her pushes. i noticed it earlier when i was reading in bed, and i think this makes her even more likely than wazza to flip w

[Arete]

Summary

@Arete

Marshal is probably a wolf

(and also you should listen to me about it)

It has a lot of words, I’m sorry. If you don’t want to read all of the words, I recommend reading the section labelled “Important context post” and then the quotes in the Vul and Arctic sections (you don’t have to read the full sections) and drawing your own conclusions, but I do think that ‘actually reading the whole thing’ is possible.

I am writing this to persuade people not to solve Marshal, I already did the ‘solving Marshal’ thing and having done that I am writing this post.

Important context post that I’m quoting out of order

@Marshal

vulgard and arctic can both be literally whatever alignment atp i only wolfread them because I was mad at their arguments against me

this is the post that made me go from ‘Marshal is probably a wolf but could be town having a super super super off game’ to ‘Marshal is a wolf and should die’

I am quoting it at the beginning so that people can keep in mind, while reading the rest of this post, that supposedly, taking Marshal at her word, she didn’t really wolfread them she was mostly suspicious because she was mad at them

and I think that looking at her read on Vul and Arctic, that is clearly false

General approach stuff

So there are a couple reasons why I think Marshal’s approach is wolfy.

• As town Marshal tends to focus more on building a towncore, she does also do the pushing wolfreads thing but the main thing she focuses on is towncoring people (to the point that at one point she correctly called me out for failing to acknowledge that this was her playstyle – I think this was Meowntainado but I’m not sure). As scum she tends to focus less on making a towncore and more on tunnelling her individual “wolfreads” to try to get them misexe’d – to be clear, she does also push people as V, she just additionally tries to build a towncore while doing it. I think her play this game is much more typical of her wolf game, she has made like 1 post that actually expresses a towncore + a handful of posts expressing villagereads but has basically done nothing to actually turn those townreads into something actually resembling a towncore or convince other people of them.
• As town she mostly does not try to discredit people for bad reasons, as scum she does that a lot – like, in Meowntainado, when I was actively trying to get her misexe’d and making the world’s worst push on her, she still heard me out and considered my slot fairly, whereas in (mentally insert a list of every Marshal scumgame you personally are aware of) she did not do that. This isn’t just about her interactions with me, to be clear, I do think those are wolfy but even if you cut literally all the Aretestuff from here I think the case is still correct.

Discrediting Arctic

throughout her early interactions with Arctic, Marshal basically tried to shut him down, box him out, and generally cause people not to listen to him, for reasons that mostly kind of sucked

KEEP IN MIND THAT MARSHAL SAID “i only wolfread them because I was mad at their arguments against me”

@Arctic

this sod feels like a weird mexican standoff where everyone is awkwardly waiting for someone else to make the first content post

@Marshal

Maybe it’s because you are mafia and feel that way ever think about that

@Arctic

contemplating burying myself further just to get the thread to actually do something before i go to sleep

@Marshal

well if your goal is to look like mafia this post does a great job

I actually think those are okay/not wolfy, I’m mostly quoting them as context for the rest of her read

@Marshal

vote arctic @Nyarchmage

@Marshal

Arctic is probably mafia

@Marshal

it was because everyone and their (my) mother came out of the woodworks to defend you your posts are mid but it feels like wolves are worried about you becoming the consensus early push and plausibly pushed forth townreads to preemptively prevent that.

Who this indicates idrc but I’ve hit on this exact feeling before

This reason is pretty clearly fabricated. Like if you strip out all the rhetoric Marshal is arguing “Arctic is Mafia because people are defending her which indicates that wolves wanted to stop her from being pushed” – that’s not a strawman, that’s her actual argument. She just completely ignores the possibility of, for instance, Arctic being town who is being defended correctly by towns.

She also makes what would theoretically be a super relevant gamestate read if her read is correct, and just … doesn’t do anything with it. “Who this indicates idrc” – if she actually believed that Arctic was a wolf because she was being defended by wolves, I think she would have at least checked who was defending her.

@Marshal

the fact that arctic is being testy on my push as if it’s some kind of scientific experiment reaction he totally planned all along and epically owned me makes me think I’m right

this post is ~fine

@Arctic

@Marshal

the fact that arctic is being testy on my push as if it’s some kind of scientific experiment reaction he totally planned all along and epically owned me makes me think I’m right

It actually was
I wrote down some reasons why I voted you in case this came up

Three reasons

1. I wanted to see the votecount spreadsheet thing
2. Marshal was insisting that all my posts were wolfy, and I wanted to see whether this was a bid to produce content or if it were actually something she seemingly believed in, and if it were the latter I’d consider the fact she didn’t vote me wolfy
3. the talk with the alt just felt like bluster which established presence while avoiding real interaction. admittedly the purpose for this as either alignment is pretty hard to discern, but i suppose if it’s a wolf alt it could be an early attempt to look unaligned.

@Marshal

Cool post too bad you could easily make it up after the fact

@Marshal

Straight up don’t buy it at all I think this is the attempt to awkwardly orient himself in thread after a bad opener with help from partner(s)

Arctic makes a villagery post and Marshal goes out of her way to try to make it look wolfy, I could understand a tunnelled villager not townreading it/thinking people shouldn’t townread her for it but I really feel like Marshal is bending over backwards to try to make it look specifically-wolfy

I think I’m explaining that badly

closer-to-what-I mean is … the conclusion is written before the reasons, Marshal started out making the argument that that post was wolfy and then came up with reasons why it was wolfy, instead of just trying to figure out if it was wolfy or not

@Marshal

uninterested in relenting

Ftr alana fits the bill v well with arctic partner

this post is specifically terrible in the context of Marshal saying “i only wolfread them because I was mad at their arguments against me”

like I’m trying to imagine town-Marshal getting mad that Arctic was scumreading her, OMGUSing her, and then warping all the rest of her reads to also be about that, while aware on some level that her push on Arctic was born from OMGUS

@Marshal

Awkward wolf arctic is uneasy about shitpost phase and retroactively trying to rectify the fact that it showed by calling his posts and votes a reaction test.

Importantly he’s also looking to rectify this awkwardness by getting some sort of push or read going because that’s a lot easier to fake and can help him find his rythm, I think it’s a push on me because he knows I’ll fight back and it gives him something to do that isn’t look wolfy

this (specifically the second paragraph) is another read that starts with the conclusion – ‘Arctic is wolf, because she’s trying to get a push or read going’ – and makes no consideration of the possibility of her being town trying to get a push or read going

@Marshal

man arctic really is just straight up wolf

this one is also inconsistent with the world where she didn’t really believe it and was mostly just mad

@Marshal

Arctic and wazza could both be mafia I think arctic could have seen me make that post about him/wazza and intentionally pivot hard towards wazza to make it look like wazza is v

@Marshal

Yeah but he made a big wordsy post afterwards he didn’t have to commit and coulda treated it like his vote on me but i think it’s v possible he saw that and intentionally overdid it to make me feed into a world where y’all are unaligned

this is another conclusion-first post, but at least it’s honest about being that

@Marshal

Arcys response just ain’t it he could have taken plenty of less agressive responses but the one he’s taking directly fits with a wolf looking to forcefully establish self in thread.

I also think he’d be a lot less gung-ho on wazza specifically after purgatory cuz I thought she was wolfy and he agreed he would prob think that way too if he wasn’t host so to immediately pile on wazza feels likelier agenda than organic

The “It’s sad but you could do this as town because you tunnel me every game” stuff is also hella gross direct way of trying to guilt me off of the push

this post is actually fine/something town-Marshal could plausibly believe

@Marshal

LITERALLT yes don’t act like it’s laughable you know the comparison is there you are an extremely skilled wolf and know these things. Don’t act like you don’t understand jt

this is overrepresenting how bad Arctic’s post was to make her look worse (to be fair Marshal does do that as town sometimes, but in the context of the rest of her Iso I think it’s agenda-y)

@Marshal

I misread you like once stfu

You have incredibly meowtainado vibes which may I remind you I had you absolutely nailed down

this is just flat wrong even if Arctic is a wolf which makes me think it’s deliberately BS

legit the only way he’s similar is that in both games he started wolfclaiming when he got pressured

@Marshal

Stop painting me like the ultimate willager and any reads on you from me invalid I don’t just auto tunnel you stop acting like I fo

she has several posts like this and it feels like a significant overreaction to Arctic pointing out that Marshal has misread her – like she’s making what Arctic was saying sound more extreme by using loaded phrasing like “painting me like the ultimate willager” when Arctic wasn’t actually doing that

@Marshal

@Arctic

@Marshal

You have incredibly meowtainado vibes which may I remind you I had you absolutely nailed down

and then you let it go, sucks

This is straight up inflammatory/trying to bait me
Why would you say this

shades Arctic for something that wasn’t actually wolf-AI and that I don’t think she would believe was wolf-AI

@Marshal

You can’t possibly be sorry when you directly put shit like this in the same post

@Arctic

The best part is when I am actually mafia, you’ll get no validation from it being correct because I’ll just point out how you wolfread me every game

This is

1. Absurdly CFTWR vibes
2. STILL INFLAMMATORY it’s a direct fuck you

continues to shade Arctic for being inflammatory despite that not being wolfy or something that I think she would think is wolfy

@LASERpointer

Tuna for Thought

State of thread could indicate v!Marshal and v!Arctic were set up to tunnel each other and destroy readability. Wolves could have seen this and dipped with their work done for them.

@Marshal

I’m going to actually eat you consume you from head to toe

this is exactly what he’s looking for

gets mad at Laser for saying they could be V/V (I also think this could be TMI, since she wasn’t repping a super strong Laser townread at that point and she jumps to the assumption that Laser is a villa being fooled

@Marshal

@Arete

also @Marshal why is Arctic being inflammatory wolf indicative?

It wasn’t the first time but the second time he was like “oh sorry I’m just mad” but in the same post continued to post inflammatory things which makes me think he just wanted to make me mad instead of actually feeling bad for flaming me

this is a bad argument that I think she would recognize is bad, like, ‘tilted villa feels bad for tilting but keeps doing it’ is incredibly common

then she starts pushing Vul for a bit (this will be covered in the next session) and then comes back and decides Arctic is actually town

@Marshal

I think arctic is town

when Arctic expressed paranoia, this is how she responded:

@Arctic

Dedicating a separate post to this because I feel it’s important

Marshal has put me on the top of their last readlist, and I… ugh
I have a sick feeling I’m massively wrong on everything and wolf Marshal recognized this and decided to use me as a snowplower to kill Vul/Arete (both are town if marshal wolf) and whoever else I’m misreading, especially because the timing of her switch on me coincides with both mine and her own scumreads on vul and arete
Her reasoning to move me back was because she… backread my takes and saw she actually agreed? Like this kinda does just read as though it was a strategical move, furthered by how this level of reasoning really doesn’t justify putting me as their number one top town, like even above marl

@Marshal

unsure how this tracks because I started townreading you before you and vul had that little spat but I am mafia and pocketing you you are getting pocketed so good work

I actually went to check and what had specifically happened at that point was that Arctic had started to tunnel Wind, I don’t super townread Wind but I do think that Marshal randomly reversing her read for no reason + Arctic starting to tunnel other people could easily be Marshal trying to get her to do literally what he describes here and I don’t really see why Marshal would randomly 180 for no reason as town if she was actually confident

Discrediting Vul

@Marshal

Vulgard can be mafia
Not is but can be

this is literally the first mention of Vul in her Iso

@Marshal

A lot of his posts feel like they fit a specific worldview in which he’s trying really hard to combat certain correct consensus takes and power wolf super hard

Mainly get this vibe from him trying to untownleader JC but the min stuff and arete v read too

this would not be a completely awful read from the perspective of v!Marshal who actually believed those things but it would still be a pretty bad one

like she’s not actually looking at Vul’s reasoning, she’s just going after Vul for disagreeing – which she often does for less incorrect villas as wolf, and I think Vul is plausibly one of the most correct players in the game right now

@Marshal

min stuff looks good surface level but I kinda think it could just b trying really hard to not let min slip into threadspewed town, seems very over incredulous at all the v reads there when I think it’s relatively straightforward even without a huge case in thread

this is pretty blatantly forcing a conclusion

@Marshal

It doesn’t matter what you say your motivations are you could lie about it

The effect of your posts is yanking min back from that tier of “everyone agrees this is town” and forcing more discussion on them which if min is town is a super good thing to do as wolf especially because they are usually elimmable if stuck in PoE

town Marshal doesn’t believe that people’s motivations are irrelevant because they ‘could lie about it’

as is this is, like, explicitly ‘Vul wolf for disagreeing with me’

@Marshal

@Arctic

this makes sense if min is a villager
but why is min a villager? - you seem to describe it as straightforward here
i saw you said the reverse read applies to vulgard if min is a wolf but idk why you’d be confident on min v in the first place
i am ngl i townread them because of vibes but atp it doesn’t really hold up, but i don’t wolfread the slot either

Again you’re isolating that part of a greater read that was vul’s behavior reads as trying to shut down correct consensus town reads. Min was just an example and not even the strongest one, I think he could be doing it with JC too.

It wasn’t even that strong of a read but it feels like everyone is nitpicking it going “well what if the inverse is true what about that marshal huh huh” which kiiinda makes me think I’ve absolutely hit on this one and people are ignoring the context of the read to try and turn it into an unalign read instead of what it is now

another gamestate read that she does absolutely zero with except using it to support her push

@Marshal

I think in those vul w worlds slots like nightingale and millium and hippo to an extent look partnered for making the fact that there are so many reads in thread or the reads in general weird

(apart from this which is like, barely even related)

@Marshal

If vulgard makes one more extremely unsubtle “oh yeah just btw just saying everyone who’s wolfreading me is mafia/silly/makes no sense”

He isn’t really directly addressing the wolfreads against them and instead shading them in general which makes me think he kinda just can’t do it and i would like that to change if he’s v

Arctic is only doing it to me which I still dislike but can see more from town

@Marshal

It’s still those “well my wolfreaders come from my PoE ” type posts, arctic has an excuse but you I’m less willing to be forgiving on

misrepping how Vul was responding to pushes to make him look worse

@Marshal

the initial vulgard read was truly intended as just some tinfoil to throw out for later but his extreme visceral reaction to it makes me think it has merit

@Marshal

I’m, like, pretty strongly confident on vul!wolf

I think he’s trying to scare me out of the read because he knows I townread JC and Min and putting some big alarm post of “ohh ohh if both of them flip town marshal HAS TO DIE!!!” is meant to make me afraid of some thunderdome with vul later down the line and making me want to work around the read

this is where she pivots to more heavily pushing Vul

it lines up very closely with when Vul started to seriously say that Marshal could be wolf, which is consistent with Marshal’s modus operandi as wolf of trying to get people pushing her voted out

and not consistent with her townplay because the logic makes no fucking sense

@Marshal

@Vulgard

i think you misread
i think if these two are v/v, then you’re super likely to be a wolf who pushed me by tming two people i tried to “fight v reads on”

if they are not v/v, then you’re less likely to be a wolf, because then, you were wrong on at least one of these assumptions, pointing toward a lack of actual tmi - but i still think you could be a wolf, because the very fact it was a chainsaw push is fishy

this makes sense
still think the post itself is meant to be an intimidation tactic but the logic itself checks

‘you disproved my entire argument but I’m going to keep shading you for it’

@Vulgard

realistically you’ve already lost the battle if you’re a wolf because people will remember my read on you after i flip

talk about other slots

@Marshal

well i strongly dislike how he is repping the reads on him (not just mine, but especially mine) because he doesnt address the reads themselves and kinda just shades the people who have them or imply that they are a joke.

His “well if you are wolf you just lost the battle because people will remember my reads” post is especially bad because it implicitly implies that JC and min are town. Which is bad because

• He doesn’t think they are town
• he also historically is extremely bad at making pre-flip spew reads on me. I didn’t really want to bring this up because I believe he can improve but I strongly struggle to see a world in which he looks at the last game he was w/v against me, called me not w/w with the ENTIRE WOLFTEAM, and then goes “yeah i totally got her with this one”

The rest of his posts are pretty lackluster, I truly dont see where he got a lot of his reads and while he has a generally roundabout way of playing I can usually see threads of trackable reasoning whereas here I just don’t see that.

this post is incredibly misreppy, like, Vul said that Marshal ‘lost the battle’ explicitly because if he gets voted out people would remember his Marshalread, it has nothing to do with his read on JC/min, this is completely ignoring Vul’s actual point to make him look bad

@Marshal

vulgard told me to stop w/w reading him with people so I am going to do not that and let everyone know I think hippo/vul have pretty high partner equity ngl and its making me consider dropping him down

mostly wolfy in the context of her later claim that actually she had never really wolfread Arctic/Vul

Discrediting me

@Marshal

I could see a vul/arete duo dunno what to think of arctic being the first to mention it

Arete gives me bad vibes like they are laying down the groundwork/progression to bury me but don’t want to do it yet, huge meowtainado vibes I just think they are feeling it out but not really giving many actual comments on my stances

misreps me by claiming I hadn’t given many actual comments on her stances when I specifically called out several of her stances, that I had already explained repeatedly why I disagreed with, as being stances I disagreed with, which makes me feel like she was just trying to come up with some sort of reason to push me

@Marshal

yeah that feels like one of the things arete would find villagery so the fact that they didn’t (or at least appeared unable to understand why it could be) felt sketcho

this is also misreppy, the read in question was one where I basically understand why people might think that I just thought they were wrong

@Marshal

I in fact kinda dont get any of aretes reads even when I try to look at them like I would as a wolf and am trying to pocket them and predict their reads it kinda feels like they chose a bunch of people to be alignments and made the reasons for why

Marshal could believe this as town but I think it’s kind of weird since the last time we played together (Sorc17) she openly acknowledged that she couldn’t do the predict-y thing anymore (…and tried to use it to shade me)

@Marshal

@Arete

Arctic’s been oscillating between townie feeling readsy posts and posts that make me say 'wtf you are wolf ’ but I think he’s probably town, villas having a few posts I hate isn’t super uncommon and he’s villagery outside of that

Arctic mild v but here’s al the progression incase I take it back

@Arete

• briefly thought min was lockwolf then realized I was probably misreading his posts. @min: what did you mean here?

@min

my push wasn’t even real

lmao

• Wind hasn’t been townie yet (yes I know she has a single digit postcount but they aren’t townie posts) (eta: it’s double digit now but they still aren’t townie)
• I disagree with like all of Marshal’s reads which is >rand wolf for her but I don’t want to push it yet in case the issue is just that I’m being a dumbass and wolfsiding. also @Marshal why is Arctic being inflammatory wolf indicative?

Min w but here’s the progression incase I take it back

Wind w but here’s the progression incase I take it back

Marshal w but here’s the progression incase I take it back

——

Many of their posts have reads that are “This person is this alignment but [specific thing could change that]”, which I noticed them doing a lot in meowtainado.

I’m on mobile and boutta drive home but u al can see what I mean

this post is legitimately terrible, I know I’m biased but like

• it goes from ‘they did this in one specific wolf game once’ to ‘therefore they are a wolf’ when in fact it’s a personality thing that they should be aware of because they’ve played enough games with me to know that
• legit the entire argument here is that ‘having nuanced reads at all’ means you must be a wolf setting up progression
• also some of it is just completely inaccurate? ‘Wind hasn’t been townie yet (yes I know she has a single digit postcount but they aren’t townie posts) (eta: it’s double digit now but they still aren’t townie)’ is not ‘setting up progression to take it back’ it’s ‘making a wolfread’

@Marshal

I think mist is maybe the most obvious villager in the game after reading her iso and the fact that arete hasn’t identified them as such or even said… basically anything about her sketches me out because I know kat (or pretend-kat) sees what I see

I think that’s one arete should have gotten to right now even if the rest of the thread hasn’t and the fact that they are ignoring her means they are probably just mafia

I think Marshal randomly bringing this up at a point when I had been gone from thread for 8 hours and therefore unable to read any Mistposts, and openly not caught up before that, is kind of agenda-y, but in maximum fairness to her she could have just not noticed or she could have been talking about posts from before I left

@Marshal

I still get that huge waters-testing vibe from arete especially on reads on specifically me

it’s slowly shifted more and more confidently on the basises of

• them not agreeing with my reads (reasoning that does nothing for nobody else, all it does is set up progression for them. I think it could be real if they are town because I kinda feel the same way but I think i’ve provided significantly more substantiative reasoning on why)
• my arguments with vulgard/arctic

the latter reasoning especially now just feels like exploiting v/v stuff

either of these reasons could individually be plausible but together they make no sense, she’s saying that I’m wolf for disagreeing with her and also wolf for the thing where I said that I disagreed with her and that that was wolfy and that therefore I was trying to use v/v violence against her

like this is another post that pretty clearly started with a conclusion

@Marshal

I fully expect to get thunderdomed w/ arete by EoD, i’ve towned against them before and they have a very specific way of leading up to specifically thunderdoming me (upick & meowtainado are examples. I died n1 in meowtainado but arete very nearly kept me alive and thunderdomed me and I still got the huge vibe). I am not confident enough to do it myself and also have a bad history of thunderdoming villagers in the past month or so, but it’s getting to that point.

The fact that they are dancing around it and waiting more than vul or arctic who got into huge arguments with me makes me think they actually fit the bill of mafia the most instead of the earlier two who in the end kinda get nothing out of it.

this is preemptively trying to discredit the fact that I’m going to push her by being like ‘oh of course Arete is going to push me but you shouldn’t listen to them because they’re a wolf’

Weird treatment of specifically the me + Vul dynamic

@Marshal

A lot of his posts feel like they fit a specific worldview in which he’s trying really hard to combat certain correct consensus takes and power wolf super hard

Mainly get this vibe from him trying to untownleader JC but the min stuff and arete v read too

@Marshal

I could see a vul/arete duo dunno what to think of arctic being the first to mention it

Arete gives me bad vibes like they are laying down the groundwork/progression to bury me but don’t want to do it yet, huge meowtainado vibes I just think they are feeling it out but not really giving many actual comments on my stances

@Marshal

I actually think it could be exactly that with arete trying to decide if they should kill me or make a shot at elimming me

The rest of their reads do nothing for me which is weird at this point in the game because I can oftentimes just lock them town

starts off shading us because Vul is townreading me

I think this is before she even started scumreading me?

anyways my issue with these posts is that she basically just starts with ‘what if Arete and Vul are w/w’ and goes from there, like she doesn’t consider the possibility that Vul could just be … town and right

@Marshal

I actually don’t think vul and arete are w/w, I feel like they’d do something preplanned but it feels like on both sides they are putting forward some lukewarm read, if one of them is wolf it’s so that they have the progression to hard buddy without scaring the other if the wolf ends up getting townread by the other, but also not get caught overextended if the town thunderdomes the wolf

Could also be v/v

but then decides we aren’t for unclear reasons – I think that Vul is a villager and she realized that she needed an argument that wouldn’t be disproven after a single flip

this also has the same problem where she’s starting from a conclusion and then finding evidence for it, and just not considering the world where we’re town and right, this time she does technically acknowledge the other possibility but in a very tepid way

this is a weaker point overall but it’s there

Bad reaction to questioning of her

So that last post I just quoted actually had a couple of people question it:

@nutella

hmm this hurts my brain

@Hippopablompoyeetus

U managed to move away from the waffle for a bit but this post has brought u back to the darkside

@Arctic

@Marshal

I actually don’t think vul and arete are w/w, I feel like they’d do something preplanned but it feels like on both sides they are putting forward some lukewarm read, if one of them is wolf it’s so that they have the progression to hard buddy without scaring the other if the wolf ends up getting townread by the other, but also not get caught overextended if the town thunderdomes the wolf

Could also be v/v

this is quite uh
weird
how does “could be v/v” track with them being your probably biggest two scumreads lol

and here is how she reacted:

@Marshal

literally it was obvious what the post was saying

@Marshal

Kinda feel like people don’t want me to consider they could be v/v

@Marshal

Why do you not want my post to imply they could both be villages

@Marshal

No i said it made sense if one of them was a wolf but also could make sense if both of them were v and just… had real reads on each other

@Marshal

@Arctic

but then you say they’re treating each other in a way that makes sense from w/w

I also don’t say that I say if one of them is wolf the treatment of the other makes way more sense if the other is a villager, hence them being unaligned.

@Marshal

I feel like Im constantly being manipulated into thinking my posts make no sense everyone is constantly implying that everything I post makes no sense it is extremely bothering me I know I have valuable insights and people act like I’m speaking another language

@Marshal

Everyone is constantly like “this is word salad” or “nothing you / anyone is saying makes sense” and “I don’t understand this/that” when I have specifically been trying to make it easier to understand my posts so I could work with them

I just feel like I’m being gaslit into thinking all I say makes no sense but ngl I am starting to believe it cuz idr know if my reads are really that good

so first of all, this is an absurd overreaction to the point of being obviously fake. Like, a coule of people disagreeing with you is not the same thing as gaslighting.

second of all, she’s trying to look like the victim, like, ‘oh, people are trying to prevent me from saying that they’re v/v! this is so terrible! woe is me’ when no one is actually doing that

third of all she does literally zero with it, like, in other cases this game when she’s claimed to think people are trying to prevent her from expressing some read she’s been super reading into it and here she’s just not, at all (I think this is because the obvious reading conflicts with her agenda)

posts I think are villagery

she does have a few and I’m including them for completeness

@Marshal

pretty sure OP wording heavily implies no multiball

it’s a thought I had (which is also, like, a very good look for night but i havent said it cuz ive been occupied) but the wording of

There will be an informed minority and an uninformed majority. There may or may not be “Lone Wolf” or “Traitor”-type roles. There may or may not be third party roles.

saying “AN” informed minority makes me think just one, unless it’s a “3rd party” that’s actually a 2nd wolf faction but I personally doubt that

I vaguely believe that she’d actually had that thought and then found it townie when Night did, like ‘same hat’

@Marshal

I genuinely think kyubey is just a person and frankly probably town for the thread sorta shushing them off to the side and saying stuff abt them being a wolf mechanic without actually being forced to address them or their reads

I also did this but I am mafia so it makes sensei

(ignoring the last sentence) I think this is a villagery think to think of

@Marshal

Jonny carter is again town tho for the kyubey vote thing its a hella towny tinfoil to think it could not vote and pushing the slot to vote meow

also this

I don’t think any of this outweighs the points against her but I thought I should list them for completeness/fairness

why you should listen to me

A big part of Marshal’s MO as a wolf is getting people who wolfread her voted out, and then convincing everyone, ‘oh, I just got them voted out because they were so wolfy, if only they hadn’t been so wolfy and made such terrible pushes I wouldn’t have inadvertently done that!’ (this is a strawman of how she does it but it is how she does it) and generally trying to get people to not listen to her. I realize that I am probably not going to convince anyone today but – that’s what’s going to happen tomorrow, almost certainly.

I expect that tomorrow-Marshal will point out that I have mistunnelled her before, which is true, but hasn’t been true for years, I have a better grasp of her playstyle now.

(alternatively we can just flip her today and not have to deal with tomorrow-Marshal, that is also an option)

I am not going to say she is literally 100% lock wolf, but I am very confident, and know her better than all of the non-FoLers and many of the FoLers. If it makes you feel better you can decide in advance to blame me if she flips town.

massping

• @alana
• @Arctic
• @Arete
• @bladescape
• @Hippopablompoyeetus
• @Illwei
• @InternetStranger
• @JohnCarter
• @Kyubey
• @LASERpointer
• @Marluxion
• @Marshal
• @Millium
• @min
• @Mistyx
• @Moonwink
• @nightingale
• @nutella
• @Squirrel2412
• @Vulgard
• @Wazza
• @WindwardAway
• @Wisdom

/vote Marshal @Nyarchmage

[JohnCarter]

What’s your experience with Nutella wolf? Idr having any personally

[Marluxion]

i’ve been in games with her wolfing before but i never really put much effort into solving her, mostly because it’s always like mashes or larger games

this isn’t really a meta thing, just that i dont feel like she believes in any of her wolfreads

[alana]

Did I just get a total stranger to write an essay on my meta?

tbh I do think there are too many posts to keep track of I’ve been trying not to complain because I actually voted against there being a postcap

Maybe some things about my long term play but nothing much except that maybe people often read into how agreeable I am and try to use it to scumread me when im simply trying to be less toxic but don’t think that’s relevant to here

[alana]

oh yea illwei goes by mizery

[alana]

In one game you fought for my vote in lylo

In the other game I was in a toxic thunderdome that derailed the entire thread

How can you not remember me

[Nyarchmage]

TARGET	VOTES	VOTED BY
Arete	5/12	Arctic (#1362); LASERpointer (#3152); Marshal (#3019); nutella (#2829); Wisdom (#3218)
Squirrel2412	5/12	bladescape (#2877); Mistyx (#2179); nightingale (#2895)
Wazza	3/12	Hippopablompoyeetus (#2824); JohnCarter (#166); WindwardAway (#3388)
Marshal	2/12	Arete (#3398); Moonwink (#3343)
JohnCarter	2/12	Vulgard (#3275); Wazza (#120)
nutella	1/12	Marluxion (#3390)
WindwardAway	1/12	Kyubey (#3155)
InternetStranger	1/12	Illwei (#2524)
Not Voting	5	alana; InternetStranger; Millium; min (#318); Squirrel2412 (#566)