You can’t combine those probabilities though, unless I’m bad at math
Idk I don’t do probability lnao
Marluna had a 23% chance of drawing 3 Sith policies
That’s actually plausible
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idfk do you think I know what I’m talking about with numbers
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Like if you combined them
You would be asking yourself, what’s the probability that they are Sith AND are lying
When only Sith lies
So Sith is already 100%
Oh right I don’t know I’m horrible at math anyway
I’ve just now realised a major fault in my calculations
It works for JJJ/SSS etc.
But doesn’t work for JSS etc. unless I was to do tedious work
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This absolutely inspires confidence and I’m glad you’re all still listening to me
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I will sheep you to my death sir
Nvm I’m right I think there is no major fault
Whysper claimed 2 Sith 1 Jedi.
Here’s the % chances for every possible outcome that we can’t rule out if Marluna got 3 Sith:
23% chance for 2 Jedi 1 Sith
12% chance for 2 Sith 1 Jedi
6% chance for 3 Jedi
I have reason to believe Whysper has sneakily dropped a Jedi card and potentially sabotaged us
Wait no I don’t
The odds actually indicate Whysper is telling the truth because the chancellor claimed JJ
So 2S 1J couldn’t have happened
So whysper has like a 75% chance of telling the truth if Marluna is
kyo im gonna be honest I have no idea what you are saying anymore
My conclusion is Whysper has a roughly 75% chance of telling the truth
Probability is weird
That’s basically saying 25% she’s Sith
But we already have a higher probability that she’s Sith which is 44.4% (take yourself out and it’s 4/9)
I think you treat these as events invents that have no relationship to each other
It’s a card game. Every card game is.
Well, we know that Whysper was presented with at least 2 Jedi cards so they knew there was always going to be an option that AT could choose Jedi
Whysper could’ve forced Jedi on AT as Sith as well
Update
That’s the probability they are confirmed Sith
Not the probability they ARE Sith
Since Sith CAN tell the truth
I figured out the relationship there is none lmao
The stats just tell us that Whysper has a minimum probability of 25% of being a Sith
because if she’s lied and got 3J she’s a sith which is at least 25% but she also could’ve gotten 2J 1S and forced J which increases the 25% min from the 3J
So Whysper is 25=> at being Sith
This was totally useless
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What’s stats that cheese gets 3 Sith