Secret Palpatine Round 2 - The Sith have won!

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#923

Oh you mean between Cape and cloned?
Idk how odds work, and I have like no read on cloned but Im still inclined to trust Cape so I think this should be ok

#924

okay so
Iā€™m Jedi
At is Jedi

8 players from outside of us
Four Sith
So like, cheese and cape has a 50% of being sith
If one of them is Jedi the other chance of being sith jumps up to 57%

1 Like
#925

and the odds even get worse for anyone looking in if you trust me

57% for either cheese or cape to be Sith
66% for cape to be Sith go cheese is Jedi

#926

Oh what
But then what is cheeseā€™s probability of being Sith if Cape is jedi

#927

Same thing, 66%

Basically

If you believe Iā€™m Jedi, then you know AT is Jedi
That means, there are a total of 8 players outside of us, four of who is Sith.
That is a 50% of either of them being sith from my perspective. However if you assume one of them is Jedi, the other has a 57% chance of being a Sith.

Now, if you believe my alignment is Jedi, then you know both your alignment and ATā€™s alignment. Which means, you have a pool of 7 people left.

1 Like
#928

Ok I get it now
But even if we decided not to risk it and voted no on this government, are there any two governments coming up that can be formed that are guaranteed to be jedi-only?

#929

I mean from a general perspective

#930

Basically what Iā€™m saying is, this government is probably fucked, and cheese stating ā€œoops, I made a bad choice, might as well vote for my government even though itā€™s not optimal!ā€ Does not inspire confidence

#931

Like whatā€™s the safest way to ensure a jedi victory here

#932

We can go to cape and then go to AT

#933

We have a confirmed town in the government then

1 Like
#934

Donā€™t we probably have one jedi in this government, though

#935

I donā€™t know
All I know is that AT is a Jedi

#936

It also helps us cycle to him being president quicker

#937

Which he can the ā€¦cucu me? I think thatā€™s the word

#938

I have absolutely no clue what that means but sure

#939

Since I canā€™t ever conflict with him or else Iā€™m outted scum, cucu basically means I pass a Jedi policy or I die

#940

Ah

#941

Litten
with all due respect
no :^)

The probability of both Cape and myself being Sith, using your assumptions, is (number of cases where both of us are scum)/(number of total cases) = (8choose2)/(8choose4) = 28/70 = 25%
If you assume one of us is jedi then the other being Sith is indeed 4/7 = 57%

This is more ā€œI like mathā€ so feel free to ignore this post

#942

so what Iā€™m saying is vote no
cycle to cape
put AT into office
win game