Post game we can see if I’m right.
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Inviting myself to your rolecard to verify.
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You made yourself too obvious.
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There’s no one way of doing things.
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I agree.
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Prediction name wise: At least one of the Blackrose family is evil. After all it’s a game with a decent bit to do with Duke Blackrose and I know our hosts enjoy twisted things such as turning family against each other in flavour :3
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L.una, Baker and Luna count for this
I retract my mechanical suspicion commentary.
Luka, you heck smh 
Just because Litten changed accounts, that doesn’t make Luka suddenly forgettable.
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You’re probably right purely through statistics.
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I can’t ninja edit noo.
The chance of a group of 3 people having one evil in it in a 13p game is 50%, around. 4 with 15 is probably higher.
Yes, that’s my point.
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Chance of at least one evil in a group of 3 players in a 15p game with 4 evils is 60.6%
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I believe the chance of exactly one evil is 43.0%
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… might be 48.4%, actually?
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Take the first player. The chance that they are evil is 4/15.
With that as a given, there are 3 evil tokens and 11 good tokens left in a bag of 14, so the chance that the second player is then good is 11/14.
If now the second player is good, there’s 3 evil tokens and 10 good tokens left in a bag of 13, so the chance that the third player is then good is 10/13.
This is only the probability that the first player is evil and the second two are good. We need to account for the scenario where only the second player is evil, and the one where only the third player is evil. The probabilities are identical for each configuration of the three players’ alignments, so we multiply by three.
The final probability is then (4/15)*(11/14)*(10/13)*3, or 48.4%.
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