Serpent and the Swordsman - Day 4 [6/15]

Forum Games Completed
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#1781

You made yourself too obvious.

1 Like
#1782

There’s no one way of doing things.

2 Likes
#1783

I agree.

1 Like
#1784

Prediction name wise: At least one of the Blackrose family is evil. After all it’s a game with a decent bit to do with Duke Blackrose and I know our hosts enjoy twisted things such as turning family against each other in flavour :3

2 Likes
Serpent and the Swordsman (Thread 2) - Deathkissed Win [4/15]
#1785

L.una, Baker and Luna count for this

#1786
#1787

@Magnus ill like to narrow down my role exactly because of that

P#97, word 7

#1788

I retract my mechanical suspicion commentary.

#1789

Luka, you heck smh :stuck_out_tongue:

#1790

Just because Litten changed accounts, that doesn’t make Luka suddenly forgettable.

1 Like
#1791

You’re probably right purely through statistics.

1 Like
#1792

I can’t ninja edit noo.

#1793

The chance of a group of 3 people having one evil in it in a 13p game is 50%, around. 4 with 15 is probably higher.

#1794

Yes, that’s my point.

1 Like
#1795

Chance of at least one evil in a group of 3 players in a 15p game with 4 evils is 60.6%

2 Likes
#1796

I believe the chance of exactly one evil is 43.0%

1 Like
#1797

… might be 48.4%, actually?

1 Like
#1798

Take the first player. The chance that they are evil is 4/15.

With that as a given, there are 3 evil tokens and 11 good tokens left in a bag of 14, so the chance that the second player is then good is 11/14.

If now the second player is good, there’s 3 evil tokens and 10 good tokens left in a bag of 13, so the chance that the third player is then good is 10/13.

This is only the probability that the first player is evil and the second two are good. We need to account for the scenario where only the second player is evil, and the one where only the third player is evil. The probabilities are identical for each configuration of the three players’ alignments, so we multiply by three.

The final probability is then (4/15)*(11/14)*(10/13)*3, or 48.4%.

1 Like
#1799

If GGhana is mafia they can target a mafia who can then “bus” another mafia gaining the social credibility for doing so while mechanically doing the opposite

Or they can target a town whos correctly scumreading a mafia

They arent posting so like. At least atm, at best they are doing no harm, at worst they can sabotage us

But we can improve the odds to guarantee they cant sabotage us

Do u guys think they will come back and read and post and stuff?

Like this is nothing personal towards them im just playing to win and i see it optimal to kill their slot

#1800

i see may is doing evil probability

2 Likes