Stratagem-10 FM - MAFIA VICTORY

[Jarek]

Same

[CRichardFortressLies]

I thought town would win after punting the lost mafia into DVC.

[Silviu200530]

I’ve read from someone and they’ve said that town win chance plummets when they get a mafia member out D1.

I can see it

[Silviu200530]

And well, Achro sounds like they know how to be well-spoken so that would be a detriment aswell.

[Arete]

this is widely believed but the (limited!) evidence we have on FoL doesn’t support this conclusion

5000th poster gets a cookie (cookie thread cookie thread)

Alright, so I’ve been vaguely curious if the “common wisdom” that executing mafia day 1 is secretly bad and makes town more likely to lose is actually true so I went through all the non-Misc non-Turbo FM games since we moved to Fortress and checked (1) the faction that was executed day 1, (2) the faction that won notes: the sample size here is obviously really low, don’t draw conclusions too much from this I was pretty sure going in that it wasn’t so I did have a bias, but I decided on my me…

[Jaiden]

@5000th poster gets a cookie (cookie thread cookie thread)

In games where a member of the Town was executed day 1, Town won 5/26 games (~19%) and Mafia won 21/26 games (81%)

I LOVE FORTRESS OF LIES

[Italy]

at this point i don’t even know what the problem is most of our players who play on other sites do great over there i think our community is just cursed

[Jaiden]

i think the site format + general lack of coordination is the main culprit but its really hard to tell

[Arete]

bonus question: we agree that this is bad, but how bad is it (in comparison to other sites)?

e.g. if you had to take a guess, what do you think the town winrate was in 2022 - beginning of 2023 across All Of MU (including main site, community subfora, champs, hydras)

(this is checkable and I plan to check it later, but not now since I’m on mobile at work)

my prediction: 35% overall, 40% if you cut out champs/hydras/subforums, with subforums being a little higher than that but counterbalanced by how bad champs villages were (for comparison FoL overall is ~23%)

[Silviu200530]

We should make and allow unbalanced setups to boost town wins! Totally the solution!

[Jaiden]

we need tos setups instead of all this “low power role madness” stuff
famously good for town

[Silviu200530]

Hey, I remember that on the older site there was an actual town of salem setup.

[Jaiden]

i have a few tos-like setups in my back pocket at all times
i should host them to see how town does

[Silviu200530]

Though if you’d put them in review, you might find that you have to put restrictions over there and that.

Or it can ultimately end up like astand where the roles are great the way they are.

[ElizaThePsycho (Willow)]

Amelia is planning on hosting Jackal ToSFM
It’s very funny

[Memes]

Bruh

[Memes]

Jarek had towntold and Cream scum told

[Memes]

How did i miss a full 24 hours? I thought the day 5 started today

[Amelia]

There was no full 24 hours

[Memes]

But im seeing posts from a day ago, was night 4 a fast night?