Cream’s response to me talking about it being difficult to execute wolf Achro
Was townie
yeah no funny story
i had forgot i was md at that point. i nearly didnt submit my night action
i said that because I thought it was funny
Did you check Memes N1?
i havent seen memes after game end
i checked achro
Magnus: N1 Memes
Jaiden: N1 Achro, N2 Prisma, N3 Lissi
let me guess
game ended
achro was alive
achro was wolf
My posthumous solve was Achro/Lissi.
Mafia did well.
Same
I thought town would win after punting the lost mafia into DVC.
I’ve read from someone and they’ve said that town win chance plummets when they get a mafia member out D1.
I can see it
And well, Achro sounds like they know how to be well-spoken so that would be a detriment aswell.
this is widely believed but the (limited!) evidence we have on FoL doesn’t support this conclusion
Alright, so I’ve been vaguely curious if the “common wisdom” that executing mafia day 1 is secretly bad and makes town more likely to lose is actually true so I went through all the non-Misc non-Turbo FM games since we moved to Fortress and checked (1) the faction that was executed day 1, (2) the faction that won notes: the sample size here is obviously really low, don’t draw conclusions too much from this I was pretty sure going in that it wasn’t so I did have a bias, but I decided on my me…
In games where a member of the Town was executed day 1, Town won 5/26 games (~19%) and Mafia won 21/26 games (81%)
I LOVE FORTRESS OF LIES
at this point i don’t even know what the problem is most of our players who play on other sites do great over there i think our community is just cursed
i think the site format + general lack of coordination is the main culprit but its really hard to tell
bonus question: we agree that this is bad, but how bad is it (in comparison to other sites)?
e.g. if you had to take a guess, what do you think the town winrate was in 2022 - beginning of 2023 across All Of MU (including main site, community subfora, champs, hydras)
(this is checkable and I plan to check it later, but not now since I’m on mobile at work)
my prediction: 35% overall, 40% if you cut out champs/hydras/subforums, with subforums being a little higher than that but counterbalanced by how bad champs villages were (for comparison FoL overall is ~23%)