Wrogn 2 - MAFIA VICTORY

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#1341

  • Ash generally has a wolftell of promising to do things, and then… not doing them. His D1 felt fine in this regard but he made 1 post D2.

  • Kyubey seems to have wolfread Ash and Spooky more than tutuu; if they’re both town then AFAICT there’s not really any point in killing Kyubey over one of me/tutuu. If wolves are afraid of protectives, then they can kill someone like Derps/Creature, who’re widely trusted and less likely to be protected.

  • Spooky’s continued lack of a read on me parallels what I remember of W!Spooky in turbos with me, and also makes sense for him if he’s a wolf - since they expect to be held to a high standard of accuracy on me*, they don’t want to push an incorrect read confidently. But, they also don’t really want to push a correct read, so they end up hedging like this.

  • Spooky also hasn’t really formed a worldview, which is now significantly worse than their play in Combinatorics, where they not only formed a worldview but a very accurate one. Admittedly they were a mason there, but I don’t think that makes up for it at this point.

  • Both Ash and Spooky were gone for most of D2, and conveniently there was also little resistance to soweli’s wagon D2 (until EOD, where Spooky was one of the players to offer to vote elsewhere).

And also by POE, since I’m town, Marluna/Creature/Tutuu/Derps are probably town, and Chomps/Leafia look better (I could be wrong here, but Leafia’s vote on Soweli looks decent, and Kyubey had a light TR on both of these slots. Now that I’m considering it further, I see a case on w!Chomps based on them not worrying about killing Kyubey due to not being in danger, plus w!Chomps also accounting for why there wasn’t much pushback D2, but still it doesn’t feel as strong as what’s against Ash/Spooky)

*There’s an argument that they shouldn’t feel this way, as I mainly play on FoL now, but they likely do, since they’ve in the past done very well and he jokes (somewhat justifiably) about having a godread on me.

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#1342

(on Day 1, to be clear)

#1343

VOTE: Spooky You convinced me Zug. I can see Spooky being a wolf here. Now to head out due to rl. :sleepingleafeon:

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#1344

Going over soweli’s posts, all of the wolfreads they make are very hedgy, notably except the last wolfread they make on Spooky at EOD2.

Relevant quotes

Soweli on me:

Soweli on Ash:

Soweli on Leafia:

Soweli on me again (has the tone of a wolfread in the first two paragraphs, but isn’t? It feels like they were trying to get to a wolfread, and couldn’t):

Soweli on Spooky:

At first I thought this was bad for Spooky and good for Ash but I see some other ideas now
There’s:

  • W!Spooky + T!Ash explaining the interactions, or
  • Any alignments, and it’s just that soweli being in anti-spew made their posts like that, or
  • T!Spooky, with soweli trying to get them killed instead

I’m inclined to say it’s just antispew? since Spooky was one of the few people willing to make another wagon, it’s not really a viable strategy to wagon T!Spooky
and the first bullet point also argues against a Spooky/Leafia team for the same reason, so it’d have to be specifically Spooky/Chomps…* which is possible but mmmmmmmm it feels like a wolf in that position should really have a stronger focus on antispew over surviving

*taking Marluna/Creature/Tutuu/Derps as confident town

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#1345

VOTE: Spooky

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#1346

Sigh

#1347

My role has 2 shots of giving people a potion. That potion self-jailkeeps them for the night, if they choose to drink it, and it expires after 2 nights. I gave the first one to May on N1 and the second one to Kyubey on N2. I expected Zug or me to die on both nights. Why cant we have nice things?

1 Like
#1348

VOTE: Ash

Ash + Leafia as per Littens legacy is my initial thought

Definitely Ash as he was also scumread by May

#1349

I think Ash, Leafia, Spooky, Zug as the final resort if he lives until Fx. Is what id suggest killing

Ash first, and then Leafia or Spooky. Im fine with either

A bit concerned Zug is still alive after claiming investigative but wolves possible afraid of protective… So roleblocking him is reasonable

#1350

Personally im fine with either coz im null on both

Litten wanted Leafia, and Litten died N2, so I would do what Litten wanted

#1351

100% have to kill Ash today imo… He was scumread by both May and Litten, the N1 and N2 kills. People die for a reason

#1352

Why would I be mafia? When you make these reads do you imagine yourself playing poker and going all in on 7 2 offsuit? I feel like there is this constant element that you want the game to be spicy and unexpected and you want to be the one who calls it out. I think that takes priority for you over doing what you think is the most straightforward thing

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#1353

I can’t believe I cross targeted with the wolf NK on both nights. Man thats saddening

#1354

you ask me why I wolf read you then post this right after SMH

2 Likes
#1355

You didnt know this post existed when you wolfread me. That post is irrelevant to your wolfread prior. I asked about that one

#1356

I just read Sow’s iso and things just make sense

I’m much more confident on Zug tho and have a third likely person but I don’t wanna say who yet for fun

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#1357

let me see if I wrote anything remotely helpful in my notes

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#1358

Hey look a reminder to go back to Post 133 and check the reads being mentioned their

too bad I’m lazy

yeah I wrote only a few things about you I may have just thrown you in because it felt entertaining tbhtbh

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#1359

Do you rememebr how Day 1 went? I was the first one to vote soweli, i kept voting her mostly all day. During EoD I tried to save Ishmael and voted soweli. Creature me and May ended up voting. I cant townside harder than that. If the way soweli talks to me feels like w/w to you I cant defend from that or control that unfortunately, I cant control what soweli says and what you read as partnery

#1360

I don’t even remember how many days ago D1 was

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