An Attempt at a Sorc 17er - Game Thread

I’m not assuming that the wolves can’t be LHF; I think in most plausible worlds there exist LHF wolves. My specific issue is that I don’t think that all the wolves are LHF, which is mainly about – game archetypes?

like, in basically every game where the early PoE turns out to be all town, some people always want to be like “clearly all the wolves were just slightly higher in the PoE, we should keep following it and we’ll hit wolves eventually” and that’s almost never actually true? even in games when the wolves are basically coasting while town tears itself apart they’ve often been given passes for something

and while it would obviously be nice to take the easy answer and be like ‘oh yeah the immediate PoE must be fine we just made a few oopsies’ I think the heuristic of ‘that is almost never actually true’ dominates basically any read I could make on the gamestate

I think it’s ~plausible that it’s you + a couple LHF + maybe a fourth less-sus person. I’m not convinced it’s any particular team composition beyond thinking it’s probably not ‘literally exclusively LHF players’

I am choosing to avoid the question about who the team actually is because I don’t, actually, have a coherent worldview

also this phrasing is super wack. I don’t actually think it’s AI-wack but like Achropigeon slot is not a high-poster even if you ignore pigeon, and conversely ApoThau is a highposter that you suspect. again I don’t think this is AI I just like being pedantic

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when he’s good? not when he’s evil? i don’t understand why you said it like this
anyway a weird thought i had about pigeon in this game is that his posting feels less wolfy than it normally does as… either alignment. and i’m not sure what this means

If you’re incapable of coming up with a wolf who this could be (that isn’t me) then why should I be able to do the same?

yeah highposters was the wrong word I guess I meant people who would be considered relatively deep

sometimes I’m incapable of coming up with a wolf it could be that isn’t you and other times I’m like ‘but what if this is actually secretly a breakout Zorvo wolfgame where he’s somehow managing to snow the entire game’

well I hope you understand my perspective now. I highly highly doubt it is zorvo either, he’s been playing this game for like 8 years, I don’t think he suddenly snaps his wolfgame in half like this

why do you think YBW is town, if you still do? I think if you take a step back and actually think about who has been playing this game the most like a wolf, I think this would lead you to her. I don’t think she’s been sharing in the confusion and despair of the town. I think she’s in her own little world where everything is going perfectly fine, we’re killing villagers, she doesn’t have reasons to doubt her reads (even though lol and sultan both flipped town) and she’s perfectly happy to continue chopping through her poe. Like I said earlier, this isn’t really how I’d expect YBW to behave given her disposition, but I could be wrong on this last point.

I think her posts on day 1 surrounding the guava wagon felt textbook wolf and I think she felt more disengaged and non-committal than she usually does as town

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do you in fact have an argument for why I should think you’re town (that doesn’t use ATE, which I have already committed to ignoring from you)

I feel like you mostly have arguments for why I should see you as less wolfy but like

if towniness is positive numbers and wolfiness is negative numbers you’re like “stop having me at a -20, I should really be at a -5”

I don’t really anymore after Sultan flipped town

a really minor thing that pinged me was this line

over on Quizbowlcord people have started talking about ‘compliment meta’ which is where if you’re town and someone compliments you they’re probably a wolf. I don’t really think this is a generalizedly-applying tell but this specific post kinda makes me feel like I’m being buttered up

good reasons to townread

Zorvo
Olivest
Agent

okay reasons to townread

baker
tutuu
Jinxed IF Arctic is town
Pigeon

bad reasons to townread

Porscha
ApoThau
YBW, though I don’t really townread her anymore

(if you’re not here it means I don’t townread you)

wow this literally only leaves Icet and Arctic. wowee

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tbc this is my personal readlist not me judging other people’s readlists

it’s nearly 5 AM, I’m going to fall asleep

I don’t know exactly when I’ll make it to thread in the morning so please be absolutely sure to ping me in anything you want me to see

Yes, I was going to do include a small town case on myself later when I gave a big wall / legacy thing but I can give some key reasons now

I can understand why you are wary of me for killing villagers, and having slightly strange tone - however I don’t think these reasons justify a day 2 chop because I… don’t think I’m the sort of wolf where the latter point is relevant, and the first thing is squarely in my town range. I think I am much likely to be solvable later in the game depending on flips. In fact, while we’re on this topic, I don’t feel like I can be a wolf with anyone except apocryphal and maybe jinxed? But anyway, back to the original point - I think it’s very easy to solve me later in the game when you can backread how I’ve treated the flipped wolves. In the mountainous game I basically ignored Phraze the entire game and only said she was probably a wolf as antispew when I thought I was dying, and molly I townread the entire game for bullshit reasons. My anti-bus meta extends to the extent that in turbo games I am findable as mafia from reading my Iso, and if it feels vaguely like openwolfing given my treatment of the other wolf - I am just mafia. sure, turbos aren’t long form, but I feel like my mindset as to what is +Ev is the same across both formats. In the last turbo game I played, achro found me as a wolf in the f3 because of this:

(alexa was the other wolf)

I recognize this is not so much an argument as for why I am town but more so that you should not kill me today, so like, you’re right, I do think I should probably more like a -5 than how you’re treating my slot currently. If I had to point to what I would call villagery from me, it’s the due diligence and doubt I’ve had on all of my reads. I think it’s pretty clear that I do not care how I look as mafia, or what positions I place myself in, the above screenshot itself should show this, but our past experience together and how I was willing to push through every elimination I wanted in the mountainous game regardless of how bad it made me look also do. This is why I don’t believe that “you are fake anxiety posting to excuse yourself for pushing villagers” holds much weight because I don’t feel a need to excuse myself for pushing villagers when I’m mafia, and posting like this simply serves to instill doubt in me and make people less inclined to sheep me. But I’ve been willing to give everything a second look, and have been doubting a lot. I was asking for YBW to be bombed, but then I looked through her Iso and had a meltdown because I didn’t actually think it was as wolfy as I originally thought but I didn’t know whether I should have just lied about that so I looked like I had some idea what I was doing? Then when baker interacted with me about this, I had every ability to just be like “yeah, send YBW to the shadow realm” but I brought up things I was doubting from her, before I went to check a wolfgame to see that the villagery notes she’s had aren’t out of her wolfrange. I did a similar thing with Geyde.

I don’t know whether you want me to be convincing or honest about this, because I’m currently doing the latter in what feels like in place of the former. I think this has been a trend in a lot of my answers to you this game, and I feel like I would have focused more on the former to give you answers which you find more satisfactory.

you didn’t want me to talk about my emotions so I’ll respect that even though I do think it is plausible to clear me from them this game

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I suggest you pick from tutuu, agent, olivest @Arete

This should not be worrying - a lot of the time while he is pushing the exact opposite of what everyone else wants, at eod he tends to give in and vote whoever the consensus wants while saying “if we’re wrong everyone is listening to me tomorrow!!!”

rofl lol that checks out

Zorvo does that sometimes

but I know he fakes it sometimes too

@IcetFeelsPain I’d like you to read my posts and gun to head say what my alignment is and why. I’m tired of the way you’ve been ignoring my slot and forcing you to take a stance here is a good way that you can be evaluated tomorrow

I regret ever ate’ing as mafia

Actually no I regret ate’ing period

I very much subscribe to the idea that this is a game of logic and information and I get annoyed at other people when it becomes otherwise

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btw i changed my mind these posts are out of my wolfrange

not out of my wolfrange but very true

out of my wolfrange if YBW and jinxed are both mafia

irrelevant for this post but so fucking true

out of my wolfrange if jinxed is town

out of my wolfrange if YBW is mafia and the villager list are villagers

out of my wolfrange

This reminds me that the way i’ve been calling random people bad for no reason is also not something I’d do as mafia since I wasn’t even doing it to convince them that I’m town

I would not have this thought if I was ate’ing as mafia in this game

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a wolf definitely liked this post btw

uh yeah I said I was going to look at apocryphal’s last scumgame to see if she can fake this perspective as mafia, which I probably will still do, but this gamestate feels very much like v/v wagons created by villagers while the wolves sit happily. I think the only wolf that could be voting me is Jinxed, but I don’t really believe they are a wolf, it’s much more likely my wagon is pure. which doesn’t make a whole lot of sense if apocryphal is a wolf, because I actually find her wagon more dubious. I think this is indicative that wolves are happy with the gamestate and thus she’s town - the mafia are likely to be in the people who are happy with the way things are going but aren’t getting their hands dirty, such as YBW, pigeon, icet

like, I’m trying not to die, so I feel if I was mafia there would be a bit more going on from the scumteam right now

I think it’s possible wolves could be bussing apocryphal and that’s why the game feels dead? but it’s hard to tell if she actually gave up since she postcapped early