April Showers Overhaul FM - GAME OVER - Town & Survivor Victory!

Honestly if robyn is wolf probably just rb jake and see what haopens to rajidae

Since obv that rb is town since rajidae was in the suspect pool

@Kiiruma any mech reasons from you to not like a parity cop claim from rajidae?

Can you imagine Achro being the 3P killer, arsonist with anti-claim mechanic specifically?

No

:face_with_monocle:

:thinking:

lowers frost 3p equity

It may look like tin foil and itā€™s certainly going to stay that way, achro is giving me red flags right now

ā€˜Rajidae doesnt want to social solve and wants mechsā€™
ā€˜Is a copā€™

Yeah sure that adds up.

Its robyn and jake who feel demoralized af right now not rajidae

I donā€™t believe an Arsonist would let this type of PC let go.

Is this an Arsonist claim?

If jokes are claims then yes.

Hahahaā€¦

He does let Rajidae go, since she claims parity cop.

I would find arsonist with dousing mechanic based on anti claims

Fucking terrifying.

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So thats why Achro change his vote to Robyn to maximize the carnage

If i am alive i will full claim tomorrow. Just to respect frostā€™s paranoia.

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Or they are next in my poe since yesterday

One of these two

@Frostwolf103

Question for you

Who originally brought up arsonist?

@Achromatic
I think i know your role. At least one part of it.
(And by now, Hazard and Vul should it as well, if they understand the question I asked in the neighborhood.)

Hmm, looking back, havenā€™t you brought this up before I did?

I just did the math, let me cook for a moment.

I calculated the probability of Rajidaeā€™s rolecop getting a difference check based on how many players of each alignment are alive going into night 1. Of course, I remembered to exclude the parity cop themselves in the calculations, but presenting the results this way is clearer.

11 villagers, 2 wolves, 1 third party: 41%
10 villagers, 2 wolves, 2 third parties: 51,3%
10 villagers, 3 wolves, 1 third party: 50%
9 villagers, 3 wolves, 2 third parties: 59%
9 villagers, 4 wolves, 1 third party: 56,4%

So, in the absolute most optimistic scenario for town in terms of setup design and gameplay (wolf executed day 1 AND there are only 4 nontown), the chance is 41%, which Iā€™d consider pretty high. This is when choosing COMPLETELY RANDOMLY. I didnā€™t consider the fact Icet is a confirmed villager in my calculations, for one, nor did I exclude anyone else.

If the scenario is anything but the most optimistic, the chance of getting a ā€œdifferentā€ result is a coinflip or better. Again, thatā€™s when choosing completely at random and without considering whoā€™s cleared.

Pretty powerful role right here.