Bland & Flavorless Mountainous 15er - Mafia Winnered

Forum Games Completed
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#1972

If we’re talking pre-meta-break Eliza one of the games I’m thinking of is Corrupt Votes on the old site, where we townread her on day 1 for not being frozen, and then at some point I went back and read her posts, and it was like

60 posts total with enough content posts that I could count them on one hand

She has never been a very depthful villager but she’s not that bad

#1973

my current read on Vulgard discounting the previous slot occupant is ‘he is truthfully reporting a bunch of reads that he made with no TMI’

also ‘well I really hope he’s a villa’ but that’s even less of a read

#1974

anyways people are going to hate this take but Vulgard townreading me is legitimately close to lock clearing for me (conditional on him being a villager which I am not yet certain of), like I’m not completely incapable of fooling him but it requires that I put basically all of my effort into optimizing for Trying To Fool Vulgard which is not a thing I would do if he weren’t even in the game

An Attempt at a Sorc 17er - Game Thread
#1975

@Vulgard

want to talk to me about Otterpod?

#1976

Want to talk to you about everything. What do you have?

#1977

a massive pile of uncertainty and doubt

concern about Arctic

concern that Zorvo is going to be obnoxious about it in postgame if he’s right that Arctic is a wolf even though his initial reasoning for suspecting Arctic was largely predicated on a false assumption

vague bitterness at myself for, yesterday, noticing midday that I was experiencing the specific sort of nervousness about the prospect of someone being a wolf that often means they are and I just don’t want them to be, and then ignoring that fact. which is stupid since he hasn’t even flipped yet, he could still be a villager!

I think Zorvo is a villager. I think Lemon is probably a villager. I think Marl is playing to his town meta but I’m less confident in this because he has gotten better at faking it.

I think May has had two kind of wack EoDs. I don’t know if it’s the kind of wack that’s wolfy, and she’s had some townie points outside of EoD.

I had some reasons to think Molly was town earlier, I’d like it if you would take a closer look at them since you’ve wolfed with her before.

I hope you’re a villager. I don’t really have strong beliefs either way. If you didn’t have two days of definitively TMIless thoughts I would be clearing you for your current posting but you do, so.

I’m glad you’re here; I was specifically hoping you would sub in when I saw there was a sub request at all.

I don’t really have strong wolfreads, not even Arctic even if I do think it’s ~likely, which is – not great. Like it means I’m definitely Wrong On Someone but when I contemplate ‘actually fulfilling my basic responsibility to figure out who’ it makes me want to close the thread and curl up with a blanket in my beanbag chair and play some online Pokemon. This is not really a great position to be in.

I think the most likely worlds where Arctic is town look like ‘he has unrelated brainthings going on’ and I have no idea how to handle this gracefully.

I wish my work didn’t ban us from using our work computers for non work purposes, I’m not being any more productive than I would be if they did and it’s 10x more annoying to type.

There’s a small part of my brain that’s like ‘we can just wait for LyLo and solve the game then, since we’re good at that!’ but I think this is approximately the worst idea my brain has had all game, if my read on Zorvo is right that is just a lose condition.

I have a nice percentage-d readlist from day 1. I think my reads on that readlist are almost certainly going to be mathematically worse than a rock with “80% town” written by every person on the playerlist. (this might be mathematically guaranteed, I haven’t checked) The cool thing about literally attaching percentages is that it’s basically impossible to lie to yourself about what you believed!

Both of the last two executions got townier in about the last two minutes. This is something I deliberately suppressed from consideration because I basically always think it regardless of whether it’s right but I still regret it :wowee:

I think I’ve gotten noticeably worse at FM in the past ~year. I’m not really sure why, it might just be not playing it as often.

I still think Prisma is posting from an uninformed perspective (I saw you being unsure of why I changed my mind, I think I already explained it (adding quotes to mobile wallposts is even worse than writing mobile wallposts), but if you go find my explanation and are still confused I can try again)

I’m seriously considering just surrendering my vote to you for the day and seeing what happens even though this is, like, objectively stupid.

I think Jarek is town. Every time I start to doubt this read he does something else that’s townie, lol.

Neon would’ve killed Otter yesterday. I don’t know how strongly I should be considering this.

An Attempt at a Sorc 17er - Game Thread
#1978

and I weakly think that a hypothetical version of me who didn’t care at all about not being executed except in as much as misexecutions are always harmful to the town wincon would have voted Arctic in the last minutes of yesterday

and there are kinds and kinds of mistakes to make in Mafia, but that’s one of the kinds that I’ve really tried to stamp out, which makes it feel somehow worse

which is maybe a dumb way to feel when I don’t even know if he’s a wolf. But.

#1979

I think some of his pushes have been bad but I also think he’s broadly been playing like his villager self. I think.

I feel like it’s much too early to tell.

I’m struggling a bit with reading them because they posted a lot more last time I played with them.

My biggest point in Otter’s favor is that aro died defending them.

1 Like
#1980

can you expand on this

#1981

Trustfall:

Arctic

  1. I think he’s been the towny kind of wrong this game, particularly in his push on Magnus - I MLed Magnus as a wolf by using many of the same arguments, and while you might think this should make Arctic a wolf, I can see the exact same mistakes in reading Magnus being made by villagers (Arete made them too).
  2. I think his scope has been sufficiently broad - my experience with wolf Arctic is that he pushes people on a lot of things in a micro scale and can replicate his town aggression pretty well, but he just doesn’t have a holistic view of the game as I believe he does here.

I think his EoD can be explained by #1603, but I don’t see it as a point in his favor moreso than just an explanation.

Arete

  1. Their posting right now really doesn’t feel like it’s coming from a wolf.
  2. I’ve felt like they have been unjustly suspected all game, especially by Zorvo, and this has been made especially apparent to me as I read Arete’s increasingly “trying not to tilt” responses.
  3. Did a lot of things I would’ve done myself on day 1, in the same timeframes. Our thoughts about Eliza and Prisma formed at the same points in the thread.
    4) Is being tunneled by Zorvo.

Jarek

  1. A lot of micro townie moments on various subjects.
  2. The policy push on Zorvo and the sentiment he described while making that push were very townie sentiments, and him ending up remaining on the Zorvo wagon at EoD with a singular vanity vote only solidifies this for me, as it indicates villagery pettiness.
  3. His assessment of the gamestate on day 1 was quite accurate, in my opinion, and he did not present it in an agenda’d manner.

Lemonfairy

  1. Recent posting was good and in line with what I expect from a town Lemonfairy.

May

  1. In terms of solving methodology, tone, and even content to some extent, May seems similar to their last game, where they were a villager.
  2. I feel like they have been getting misunderstood all the time and unfairly pushed - to a lesser extent than Arete, but still noticeably so, particularly on day 1.

mollylikesorigami

  1. The push on otterpopd in early day 1 on the basis of them being a veteran who pretends to be a newbie on an alt was a pretty creative push that I found outside of molly’s wolfrange. My experience with wolf molly is that she doesn’t make creative pushes most of the time and especially not this early; she mostly just talks about villagers, because that’s easier to explain with TMI. She also continues the push into day 2.
  2. The derp clear thought about Prisma in #138 resonated with me. She also seems to be townreading the same thing from otterpop as the one I put on the trustfall (#1550).

otterpopd

  1. Calling Zorvo’s posts “smelling of shit” and suspecting him because he makes otterpop not want to play the game (#1367) is kinda towny just because it’s pretty “out there.”

Phraze

  1. She is super polarized and was able to write a full paragraph’s worth of reads in #1384. I wouldn’t say this is anywhere near clearing for most people, but it might just be clearing for her.
  2. Saying Arete/Arctic are two members of the wolfteam (#1019) is pretty “out there” considering how bad her reads are when she is a wolf.

Prisma101

  1. A lot of their posts seem like I should be lock clearing them for having a town perspective, even though some of them I could also see as lock wolf posts depending on how I look at them.
  2. It was kinda towny that they first declared they would not vote until EoD (SoD 1) and then immediately changed their mind.
  3. Postcount.

Zorvo

  1. I think he really believes his reads this game and is genuinely trying to convince people of them.
  2. By the metric of him making more sense as mafia, his logical missteps in a lot of his pushes make him more likely town.
  3. I believe Jarek’s assessment of the gamestate, and through that belief, I feel like Zorvo is the centerpiece of attention that wolves are going to want to keep alive because it makes the thread incapable of getting anything done.

A lot of these sounds like I’m just insulting Zorvo, but I think he’s wrong on his primary push, and that’s a problem.

1 Like
#1982

I feel like a couple of these are basically ‘they roasted Zorvo in a convincingly believable way, which is townie’ and a thought that occurs to me is that depending on how wrong he is on Arctic/Prisma wolves might also feel comfortable roasting him if they know he’s super wrong? Idk if I’m explaining in a way that makes sense

#1983

Blame the people who didn’t want to vote with me.

#1984

Bro as soon as Arete made some bad posts SoD1 against me I’ve kept my Arete wolf read and Arete kept doing things I’d expect wolf Arete to do.

#1985

Distrustfall:

Arctic

  1. His EoD2 is objectively really weird. I think #1603 potentially explains it but I’m not even sold on it as I type it out.
  2. In general, the way he’s playing is explainable by the plans he outlined at SoD1 as well as in #1603, but he feels kinda wimless when I look at his more recent stuff.

Arete

  1. A lot of people are wolfreading them, which is making me wonder if defending them is correct. I’m still fairly confident, but I didn’t expect to come into the thread alongside Marl and immediately see my read countered.

Jarek

  1. I don’t think anything he’s done is impossible to fake from a wolf perspective, including the gamestate read.
  2. His posts have felt the most rigid out of anyone, although that could just be my perception of his tone.

Lemonfairy

  1. Has felt rather wimless compared to my previous experience with her, when she was town and objectively one of the best-playing villagers.
  2. Has not been able to take stances on EoDs and has never tried to push her reads in a significant way - two things I did see her do as a villager.
  3. I feel like she is paying less attention than she did as town, though admittedly some of it could be because she was a PR in the game I keep referencing.

May

  1. Something about their posting feels different from last game, when they were town, and not just in the sense that their postcount is lower here. Explainable by them being sick, but it’s throwing me off. They seem to develop a lot of reads early on, and I feel like they didn’t do it as easily last game? That said, I feel like I’m nitpicking as I write this.

mollylikesorigami

  1. Reading the posting about otterpop again makes me feel like it could just be a bus and I mistakenly assumed it couldn’t be one, especially since she ends up switching to Eliza on day 2 and doesn’t go back to otterpop. I know this is preflipping otterpop but this matters even if otterpop is town - I thought Molly was more attached to this read but she just ends up switching to Eliza when I felt like she shouldn’t have. This feels a tad nitpicky though.
  2. The otterpop read is my biggest reason to townread her based on my experiences with her, and the fact this is my only reason - and she seemingly abandoned that read yesterday to vote Eliza - doesn’t bode well.

otterpopd

  1. A lot of overfocus on May in early posting, which I wolfread because they read like attempts to integrate into the game by latching onto the one player you know and just talking about them instead of even trying to generate content about others. I can excuse not knowing how to play the game, but I don’t feel like otterpopd even tried, despite her claims to the contrary.
  2. Her reads seem to be based on some objective principles she believes in, but those principles don’t make much sense to me - for instance, she is wolfreading everyone who attempts to townlead (Arete “controlling the vote D1,” Zorvo “forcing himself into town leader position”), and she distrusts May for no clear reason. In general the reads in #1531 don’t feel like she really believes them. The townreads are also based on principles to a hilarious degree - Aro is town because “pushing activity,” Prisma is town because “struggles to keep up.” And I also think these principles are wrong. And most of them never get explained. p#1288 is an explanation of one of them (no exe is bad, I actually agree with this one), but she spends so much time talking about it relative to the other content in her ISO that I feel like she was just trying to latch onto a topic that she was capable of talking about. It’s easy to call “no exe” an antitown idea and argue as much, no matter your experience level, I believe.
  3. I don’t feel like she is genuinely trying to process the game. When she isn’t talking about something unrelated or about May (she really talks about May a lot early on), she is weirdly trolling or making reads that don’t seem like she thought about them at all (#1252).

Phraze

  1. Her body of work is objectively awful and the meta I have on her only goes so far.
  2. I thought it was very suspicious that she ghosted the early-game after being asked a question, as I already explained.

Prisma101

  1. Some of their posts make me feel like they are trying to project newbieness and bravado rather than just having those traits, and their opening post indicates what is to come. #118 #241 #592 #629 for the bravado, #193 #621 #693 #1405 (second half of first paragraph) as well as #1578 for newbieness. I feel like this is slightly nitpicky but it’s more of an overarching thing and I wanted to bring up examples.
  2. They have a lot of self-awareness that I find suspicious because it clashes with their presentation of not knowing anything. #167 I find is a weird way to talk about people trying not to get you killed because you’re new (can’t explain this part very well), #592 is trying to use super objective stuff and literal statistics to defend themselves instead of something that’s biased, #606 again (very cognizant of interactions with others), #621 explaining why they cannot vote based on personal thoughts (citing lack of experience), #1251 noting that a person who defended them died which indicates great cognizance of interactions and people’s reads on Prisma. A lot of this just feels like Prisma is trying to weaponize their status as a newcomer to make themselves seem less suspicious.
  3. I think they wrote the wolfiest post in the game, that being #121. I no longer view it as strongly as I did when I initially saw it, but it did launch my suspicion of the slot. I also think #711 is a really bad sheeping of Neon with reasoning that looks like it was made up suddenly - which is particularly relevant, because in #590, Prisma expresses the belief of being okay with “confiding in Magnus,” which implies they want to keep Magnus alive. But when Neon pushes Magnus, the mindset seems to change? Can you explain that? @Prisma101 There’s also the push on Zorvo, which is for similar reasons to otterpop’s push (Zorvo being a town leader) and I hate it for very similar reasons.

One thing I forgot to mention for Prisma is that the #179 - #193 sequence is easily the towniest sequence in the entire ISO because it reads as really innocent. That said, it clashes a bit with what I suspect. I think the Prisma segment is the most likely one for me to be tunneled on and just wrong about so I’m weighing it slightly less, would appreciate others’ thoughts though.

Zorvo

  1. He’s pushing villagers imo. That’s literally it. I’ve got nothing. I think he’s an IC this game.
1 Like
#1986

DUDE I EVEN POINTED THAT OUT!!

#1987

Based on all of this, my reads look like this (unordered within tiers):

Zorvo

Arete

Jarek
May

Arctic
Molly
Phraze
Prisma

Lemonfairy
Otter

Probably the most interesting thing here is that I don’t actually have a lot of reasons to call Lemonfairy town and a lot of reasons to call her a wolf. Arctic is also much lower than I thought he would be, and if I take the molly/otterpop not W/W read (because I’m still not inclined to think she would spearhead that push on otter day 1 as W/W, that just seems like the type of proactive super early bussing she wouldn’t do), then the team looks like Lemonfairy/Otter/one of Arctic, Phraze, and Prisma. I’m actually surprisingly okay with this.

1 Like
#1988

my best reason to call Lemon town is her EoD2 (I think this holds regardless of Arctic’s alignment)

#1989

I feel like Arctic is the least likely player to be mafia in the semi-bottom tier that contains four people. I believe this based on how I’m seeing him talk about Otter and Lemon. He has sussed out both for what I consider good reasons.

#1990

I read her ISO, including that part, and I… don’t really see it. Can you explain?

#1991

VOTE: otterpopd