what is your read on Lemon
If asked, which is what you were doing right now, I’d say I have a null read on Lemon. I would probably say the same for literally everyone else in the game, because I am suffering under “no reads disease”, probably the most significant illness I have right now (lying voice), and everything is up in the air and floating and I cannot grasp at any of it.
I’m actually currently trying to look at Molly/Lemon equity, because I glanced over an interaction that Molly had with Prisma that looked W/V to me, and then I went “well if Molly’s sitting back and letting these executions happen maybe other wolves are coasting as well?”. Neutral on that. Lemon’s been insisting Molly’s town, which’d be interesting to do with a partner, but as I’ve said multiple times, there is no pressure I can find anywhere on the wolves to act or treat their partners a certain way, so :frogge: dunno.
Though I do wonder if that “arbitrary decision” I made that one night to pick Lemon as the target to force myself into a corner… I looked at the list of names and picked her. Was it so arbitrary? Maybe I was onto something… I wouldn’t know, I don’t remember, I only know why I did it in the first place because I made a joke about it in my rolecard… but I’ve been complaining all game about not having instincts, maybe this is the best I can find. I should look into Lemon in isolation more probably.
can you expand on this
yes I have a reason for asking
There’s usually… corners. There’s little ways you can see the game progress that let you have some insight into what the wolves are thinking. If wagons move a certain way, if nightkills go a certain way, you can kinda go “okay, they’re nervous, they’re cornered, they’re bussing”, an unusual nightkill can indicate an unusual wolfteam, that sort of thing. If people are frustrated in thread, maybe the wolves don’t get along well.
This game, it’s just felt like nobody has ever been nervous the entire time, and I don’t know if it’s because I’m not seeing the tells or because the wolves are sitting back and letting things happen. It feels like everyone’s a little… fragmented, trapped in their own heads, and not picking up on each other’s cases, so the wolves can say whatever they want without real fear that villagers will pick up on their bus, and they can also defend their partners without too much worry coming from it (especially since we haven’t flipped a single wolf so far).
If they push villagers, they’ll carry little responsibility for it, because people are coming to so many conclusions independently and will blame themselves. If they push their buddies, nobody will pick up on it. I dunno. None of this “vibes of the gamestate” is anywhere near an exact science, and it’s often something I struggle to articulate even when I have strong feelings.
woah the shade
I’m most definitely not feigning ignorance
I either missed it or I read but forgot about it because I didn’t agree with your reasoning
if you could direct me to that specific post you’re talking about, I’d appreciate it
I think it’s less about how “not great” my interactions with May are but more that (fmpov where you and Arctic are wolves) you can’t really find me as individually scummy so you try to use interactions with (probably another town) May to push either me or May because the thread was kind of leaning that way and we seem like the most viable pushes.
I don’t think you’re trying to read me in an objective or genuine way
like, the way you’re approaching this is again, not in a way that’s trying to find my alignment or sort me and you don’t express any kind of doubt in your scumread either, which is something I’d expect from you at this stage of the game where you (from what I’ve gathered) haven’t been reading the game too closely and we’ve been having a streak of town misexes. I think the aggression you have here feels forced and you’re faking the confidence to make your scumread appear more substantial than what it actually is.
I also find the way you treat Zorvo/Jarek/Prisma’s slots and how you easily gave them townreads without going into detail why they’re town (from the couple of posts I’ve read, correct me if you have gone into detail) and the way you’ve been treating my slot this phase to be very different. In particular, when I’ve stopped slanking as much and towned it up with more ISOs and WiM to solve, you somehow found that wolfy?
I literally don’t know what to say if this is your town game.
May, talk to me about your reads because I’m feeling kinda snowed here and I want to know if I’m still sane or not
Basically there is only one thing I find of May that’s wolfy and that’s their EoD votecounts, although they claim to have been sick so.
What I’m saying is everyone other game within the first 3 day phases May ALWAYS voted a high wagon but not this game.
And even if May is a wolf, it would imply they couldn’t vote a high wagon and mean at least 1 partner to be on it, specifically day 1.
Meaning this is the solve and only world probability of May is a wolf:
1 or 2 Wolves in Arete/Arctic/Prisma/Molly
0 or 1 Wolf in Lemon/Jarek/Marluxion
like arghhh these cases make me mad because they’re so bad but I find that I can’t even say much b/c most of it is just quote walls of me commenting on May and saying “wow lemon’s so wolfy her quick takes on individual posts don’t add up to her overall conclusion”
like of course it doesn’t, I put more weight on some posts than others and I take some meta into account too
it’s more of a way for me to solve and figure out people than for other people to see and I try to look for both towny and not so towny parts and make a read based on what I feel is most likely correct
why is me solving being spun into something scummy?!
You’re wondering if you’re still sane, I know I’m not.
I am town. Zorvo is town. Zorvo is being kept alive for a reason. Nobody is particularly desperate right now. That’s all I know.
do you think Arete/Arctic’s push on me was agenda-y?
someone validate me
Arete is going to have an agenda “don’t die today” no matter what, so yes, their push was agenda-y, but in a way that’s NAI, you know? The assumptions we take going into these days (Zorvo’s town, Jarek’s town, certain peopel are more likely to be aligned) have narrowed down the potential space for wolfcases so thoroughly.
Arctic… I don’t know, his posts slip through my head. I could try to look through it, but no promises.
I think we’re in a stage where if the wolves believe they’re in any danger of flipping at all, they are distancing, y’know? If Arctic/Arete are wolves, they’re probably setting up their last buddy to endgame.
It’s kinda hilarious cause that wasn’t his thought come the start of today.
They are doing what they did day 1 and are just sheeping others.
what is this reply? >.>
it’s so unbearably neutral
I personally think it’s AI and more specifically, scum AI because it’s not just that they don’t want to die today (which, btw is a direct contradiction to what they were saying at SOD of being ok with being voted out and having people sheep their legacy), but also because it feels like they don’t care if the person they vote out is town or not, as long as it is not them
that in itself feels more scum AI than NAI
pls don’t tell me you’re w/w/w with Arete and Arctic
I’m probably tinfoiling though
2 Likes
Yep!
I already said I know what they would do.
That’s why I directly said to Not clear any of Arete/Arctic/Prisma from voting each other.
Actually this makes a whole lot of fucking sense.
@Marluxion
Think about it, they know you hard town read Arctic.
So Arete in wolf chat had the plan to basically come into today expected to be ok to die so Arctic can end game for the win and use you to win, They want to play you.
I’ve been in that sort of position as town before, like in Starcraft, potentially getting voted out at an important stage in the game, and, like… I made every argument that I thought could stick. No matter what happened, me getting voted out was guaranteed to be bad, while literally anyone else dying had at least a tiny chance of killing a wolf. I’d take everything I could get, and I think Arete would here too.
And if you think what I’m saying is unbearably neutral, you should hear what I’m thinking. This is me doing my best to put any opinions at all out there. I am in hell.
What did Marl say about you pinging him?