Bland & Flavorless Mountainous 15er - Mafia Winnered

[Marluxion]

yeah like i just said
wolf arete still always kills vulgard there
it just feels disrespectful to vul to go right for arete’s throat again though

[Arctic]

@May

Zorvo has not yet been killed. Near-universal townreads on Zorvo and he has not died. What do we all think the source for this is.

being wrong on some number of me/prisma/arete (i currently think that number is likely to be 2 or 3)

[Prisma101]

@Arctic

being wrong on some number of me/prisma/arete (i currently think that number is likely to be 2 or 3)

I am confused on this it is (for me anyway) quite hard to understand

[Arctic]

Wolves want to kill people that either have good reads, or are widely townread, or both

Vulgard was not widely townread, and Zorvo was widely townread, but vulgard died instead of him

This means vulgard’s reads are probably better than Zorvo’s. Vulgard townread me and arete strongly - these may be the reads that zorvo is wrong on because he scumreads both of us

this also applies to night 2, when arogame died despite more people townreading zorvo than him, and he townread all three of me, you and arete

[Prisma101]

Ah ok thanks

[Arctic]

what are your thoughts on the game right now? there’s 3 wolves alive still so give me anything

if you’re town you’ve gotta make it clear today

[Prisma101]

I still believe zorvo is likely a wolf but no one seems to care despite the fact a lot of his reads are almost baseless

Arete is still a maybe (more so wolf than last time)

You are undecided as i am extremely confused rn

[Arctic]

@Prisma101

I still believe zorvo is likely a wolf but no one seems to care despite the fact a lot of his reads are almost baseless

unfortunately he does this sort of thing as a villager, this is why everyone townreads him for it. usually as a wolf he comes up with more substantiated reasoning. if the host secretly told you zorvo was a villager right now, who would you want to kill instead and why?

@Prisma101

Arete is still a maybe (more so wolf than last time)

could you say why?

[Arctic]

seth wtf
people repeatedly dying with the same townreads makes them likely to be correct

they’re less likely to die if they are lock towning a wolf

[Prisma101]

@Arctic

if the host secretly told you zorvo was a villager right now, who would you want to kill instead and why?

Im not completely sure

@Arctic

could you say why?

I dont know i just finished exams and probably missed a lot so i dont know a lot of what happened the past two days

[Prisma101]

@Zorvo also hasn’t answered my question

[Arctic]

by the way, i don’t know if anyone told you this yet but you can read someone’s posts in isolation clicking the person icon below a post belonging to them (make sure you scroll to the top after you click it though otherwise you’ll start at the bottom)

do you have any thoughts on may or lemonfairy

[Prisma101]

Yeah i know that but 1 its really late and 2 after last week im extremely tired so i cant be bothered

May is (imo) town (can’t really explain why because i lack memory) and lemon is similar to arete

[Arctic]

ok let’s try something else

i remember you said you thought you were likely to get nightkilled a few days ago, why did you think that was the case?

why do you think you haven’t been nightkilled?

[Prisma101]

Because im basically free for killing and almost nobody would even question it in depth

[Prisma101]

@Arctic

why do you think you haven’t been nightkilled?

I dont know

[Arctic]

@Arete

Arctic’s EoD was a little better than his (entire rest of the game)

?
…can you elaborate on this

@May

I had voted Lemon the night before to force myself into playing the game - it was an intentionally bizarre vote (Lemon was one of the most universally townread people at the time) that I wanted to put down to back myself into a corner and force myself to justify it.

Unfortunately, that littol trick on myself didn’t work, and I mostly just AFKed the rest of the day - I had a meeting that ran over and it threw off my mental schedule, also I was very sleepy.

I planned to mention why I’d placed that vote and change it afterward, but I just… forgot. I shouldn’t have done it, terrible townplay, but also I would have no reason to do it as wolf either, so. We do a little throwing

see this would have been cool if you like, actually followed through with what you said you would do
i’ll admit it doesn’t really make sense as either alignment but what it has done is made yourself less readable
can i ask that, if you are town, today you vote and stick to voting what you believe rather than this fancy pants shit

@May

Arete starts out hte game by voting two villagers, then Arctic votes them. Interesting interesting interesting. Zero justification of the votes. I see this pattern as potential W/W behavior - if yourbuddy starts out strong with the Agenda you gotta come in with the TMI it is the eteral duel they are involved in there must be a balance in eery mafia game it is ias if the scales.

i
what
i voted arete as a meme in RVS in my first post
how is this a real thought??

[Arctic]

neon legacy

@Neon

Tldr team is Magnus/May/Otter. Book it.

@Neon

There is no connections between Prisma Arete and Arctic that point to a 3W world.

Your progression into Arete was based on literally nothing and you’ve hard conf biased yourself in every post and I actually think you’re probably town which is annoying because I want to work with town to find woofs not be told to blindly follow and be yelled at when I disagree.

aro legacy (he didn’t really have a legacy, this is just his last real-readlist. his posts at eod are exploring where he could be wrong but reading into that feels like a wifom and is still dependent on flips we don’t yet have)

@Arogame123

Aro-readslist

Town
Zorvo
Jarek
Prisma

Leaning Town
Phraze
Arete
Otter - null townie
Arctic - null townie

Null
Molly

Leaning Scum/POE
Aleph
Lemon Fairy
May
Eliza

vulgard legacy

@Vulgard

This might be my last post unless there are people I want to talk to when I check in a little later than this.

Detailed thoughts

I have Arete and Zorvo as ICs. Yes, this means I have the main argument of the entire game as V/V IC. Unfortunate, but here I am.

The next tier contains Arctic and Jarek - I have mild concerns about them, but none strong enough to want to eliminate them today (the concerns consist of stuff I’ve described in earlier posts).

The next tier is Marluxion. I think he believes his read on Arete, but I also think he used several openly bad-faith arguments to try and convince me to push Arete, which is making me doubt him being town a bit. Then again, his arguments were so openly bad-faith at times that I wrapped back around to it being towny when I thought about it for a bit more. And happily for Marl, his previous slot holder is Phraze, who is such a polarized player that I genuinely think her posting a full paragraph’s worth of reads makes her a likely villager. I do not have Marluxion as confident town, much like I did not have Phraze as confident town (because I thought putting the bar this low seemed like a potential mistake), but I don’t want to kill him right now, even though I think he’s pushing an IC.

The next tier is May and Molly - I generally townread them, but I see a couple of points in favor of them being mafia. I think May has been more worldbuildy in previous towngames, and they have also been less deliberate - here, I see a lot of elements that look like May is deliberately maneuvering in the thread, particularly on day 2 and after. With Molly, I liked her push on otter from day 1, as I thought it was very creative and I wolfread the slot myself - plus, I just wolfed with Molly, and the biggest thing I can say about her wolfplay is that she doesn’t really generate wolfreads. However, Molly inexplicably switched from Otter to Eliza on day 2 and stayed on Eliza, which is making me wonder why she didn’t want to carry the read through. This holds significantly less weight is Otter is a villager.

I think May and Molly are both not W/W with otterpopd. I don’t feel so confident about this that I would outright lock clear them if otterpopd flips mafia, especially molly (she pushed on otter on day 1, but changed her mind on day 2 and voted Eliza for no real reason given), but I definitely don’t want to push them over otterpopd. With May specifically, I feel like the May/otterpopd grouping could just be V/W, because both of them have interacted with each other weirdly and dimissively, and while you could argue this should make them W/W, I feel like they’d be trying to help each other instead of this weird song and dance that doesn’t even qualify as proper distancing (otterpopd constantly talking about May and May’s wolfgame, while May just refuses to give an alignment read on otter after two days).

The next tier is Prisma - I simply don’t believe the stuff they’ve been townread for is warranted. I think Prisma has overplayed the newbie stuff and bravado-adjacent thing that I listed in one of my posts, and I find the self-awareness suspicious enough to put them low on my list. I’ve read plenty of arguments in Prisma’s favor from several people I townread and from dead villagers, which does instill some doubt in me, but I can’t reasonably place Prisma higher at the moment. At the highest, I would place Prisma next to Molly and May. Aro, I’m sorry if you were right and this is just a villager, but I don’t see it right now.

The semi-last tier contains Lemonfairy. Her posting until now, as a general body of work, is something I would obliterate her for, because she feels much less involved than she did in her last towngame, seems to worry about developing her reads much less, takes less initiative, pays less attention and seems more scatterbrained, a lot of things like that. I am admittedly comparing her to a game where she was the only town PR and needed to survive to give the town a fighting chance, which I am trying to correct for. The reason she is not my preferred elimination today is that I believe her most recent posting to be her towniest posting in this entire game, and I feel like I could clear her (or condemn her) if I were just able to talk to her for a bit and figure out where her head is. I’d be doing that right now if she were here. For that chance, I don’t want to kill her today, but do keep in mind that I think her posting so far is significantly below the standard she set for me in GOAT^2 and I do think this difference can easily be alignment indicative.

Finally, we get to otterpopd, and I can be more brief here - I already wolfcased the slot in my ISO and this is my preferred elimination. She spends a lot of time trolling or talking about May, especially in the early-game, and she seems to be taking every opportunity not to talk about the actual game. When she does talk about the actual game, her reads ring as fake to me, and they are largely based on policy components which I’m not even sure she believes in. Accusing Arete of being a wolf for trying to control the vote, and accusing Zorvo for trying to be a town leader, just seem like fake arguments to me. In #449 she votes Magnus to “make him answer Arete’s questions” but I really don’t get the impression she cares about those questions being answered, especially since she wolfreads Arete herself later on. Her townreads are of a similar kind - she townreads Arogame for pushing activity (her exact words) and Prisma for being clueless, both of which are yet again binary. She also spends a lot of time making arguments for why not executing someone on day 1 is bad - in fact, she spends more time on this than on making any reads whatsoever - and I find that anyone can easily make arguments for why such a thing is bad, and she even extends this to wolfreading the person who suggested it, displaying a complete lack of nuance at best and opportunism at worst. It just seems so binary to suspect my slot (Aleph) for suggesting a no execution and doing nothing else. There’s also the final and ultimately minor point that her posts at EoD1 and EoD2, about thinking it would be funny if wolves killed her, seem really out of place.

I want to kill otterpopd more than anyone. That’s why I’m going for otterpopd over Lemonfairy. The other upside of going otterpopd is that it resolves d1 wagons and makes the night 1 kill Neon un-blacklist people from the site.

My biggest point of doubt is that I think I’m bad at reading new players, and both otterpopd and Prisma are newcomers. If I assume I am indeed terrible at reading those players and otterpopd/Prisma are both villagers, I am left with a wolfteam of Lemonfairy, May, and Molly. You can consider this if otterpopd is a villager and I die overnight, but do give at least Lemonfairy a fair chance, because I think she can clear herself if she is town. If she is not town, she shouldn’t be able to clear herself and you should kill her.

[Arctic]

i am struggling to see how neon and aro both die with 0 wolves in their poe (especially aro since others were more townread than him)

vulgard’s lowest reads were otter/lemon/prisma in order of confidence, i think? it’s hard to tell because he says that he could move prisma up to where may and molly are due to aro’s legacy

i’ll be back later to figure this out

[Lemonfairy]

ngl I’m starting to tinfoil a Zorvo/Arete team, which is likely very wrong but I’m just going to put it out there in case I’m right