Bland & Flavorless Mountainous 15er - Mafia Winnered

i townread arete mainly for their read on eliza in conjunction with how they were handling you (which i explained here) and also meta-wise usually by now if they were a wolf i would have found a blatantly fake read with contrived/reachy reasoning but so far even their reads which i would describe as reachy/tinfoily i can still plausibly see them believing, which is far removed from how i read many of their posts where they were a wolf in the hydra vig10 game. i’m not great at reading arete because i tend to scumread them a lot regardless of alignment, but i maintain that if they were a wolf i think i would have had a major issue by now, and i don’t

i think a lot of your reasons to scumread arete boil down to glorified omgus, and i am starting to come around on you being a villager with your head up your ass - mainly because i think we are past the point of you/arete being w/w and i think if wolf!you was trying to leverage a push on town!arete you would have set up some damage control by now or planned for another push tomorrow, but you aren’t. you are failing to do basically anything else because most, if not all of your reads are preflips with arete wolf which leaves you completely helpess tomorrow if they are town, and i feel like wolf you would be more meticulous about the way you are playing than whatever this is.

so with that said, i would like for you to pretend arete is a villager for a moment, and tell me what your view of the game would be from there.

Cause I’m willing to bet if I was anyone else you wouldn’t have a problem with it.

There was nothing wrong there

i don’t think you are all mafia, i think you are being egged on by one or two of them to push a town arete

What are the chances it’s Arete/Arctic/Prisma?

Why are you so confident Arete is town again?
If you already stated why please give me a post number or your post number.

like 6 posts above this i just explained why i think arete is town (#421)

Regardless of Arete, Aleph’s post here is actually Townie considering I don’t believe a wolf does this unless their team is in danger and I know I’m not a wolf and the way they are talking to Arete means that Aleph is probably just town.

I’ll have to look into strategics, but Aleph might actually be right about No Exe if this setup is what I think it is.

No my point was that y’all can’t town read someone for doing something and not do the same for the other especially if the person your town reading should have been on a larger scale of expectation anyway.

just read this
it’s ok

makes me feel slightly better about your previous posts but doesn’t really convince me that Arete’s a wolf

what
this is such a backwards process
that’s
that’s not how reads work

Remember Arete (-) Eliza can be aligned wolves.

Either way, Arete only started pushing Eliza cause they didn’t like how well I was pushing them and put pressure on my other voter.

Also I don’t feel like Arete handled my slot that well at all.

That’s gonna be difficult.

Was right on Rue - Lost that Game
Was right on SillyKitty - Lost that Game
Was right on Vulgard - Lost that Game

The pain I have to go through each game.

May talking to their alt was funny

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That’s actually how I think sometimes.

https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=The_EV_Project

  • Premise: At even numbers, Town is assumed to No Eliminate to raise their elimination accuracy. With no power roles, this is a dominant strategy. In practice, this is not a good idea, as the scum will kill off the strongest Townie. However, if there IS a strongest Townie, then why not just choose not to eliminate them and continue as if it were the odd-numbered setup?

with normal elimination:

15P: 9 - 6

(6/15) 40.0% GOTO 13P: 8 - 5 (8/273 Town win)
(9/15) 60.0% GOTO 13P: 7 - 6 (16/3003 Town win)

(6/15*8/273 + 9/15*16/3003 = 32/2145) 1.5% Town win
(2113/2145) 98.5% Scum win

with no-elimination:

13P: 10 - 3

(3/13) 23.1% GOTO 11P: 9 - 2 (244/693 Town win)
(10/13) 76.9% GOTO 11P: 8 - 3 (38/231 Town win)

(3/13*244/693 + 10/13*38/231 = 16/77) 20.8% Town win
(61/77) 79.2% Scum win

(this is all models assuming random-voting but there’s no empirical evidence for the idea that no-eliminating makes voting more accurate)

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It’s easy to ignore people talking about me, it’s harder when they’re trying to talk to me.

I feel like Zorvo/Arete/May is a fair triangle to say there’s no more than one wolf in.
From my perspective, I don’t mind letting you two draw a line in the sand, rather than trying to break it up and having that suspicion carry on into future days. If you’re able to resolve your conflict yourselves, it’ll be two villagers figuring it out and not me coming in to intervene. Maybe that makes sense.

Is it normal for FM players to completely ignore worldviews they personally don’t believe in? That doesn’t sound right.

No-exing before XeLo isn’t a good idea. You aren’t executing D1 to catch a wolf, you’re executing D1 to gain information outside the Mafia kill.

Because I think wagonomics are better with competing wagons.

Alright, here we go.

RVS.

Immediately wants to end RVS. :thinking:


Here, you question May to broaden on their read on Eliza, lightly defending her by saying she’s more active as evil. In any case, you’re conducting May’s read here.

Voting May here is a good look, but you never really seem to return to your suspicion on their slot. It’s like you just put them out of your mind.

This isn’t a read, you’re commenting your view on Eliza’s post, although in conjunction with your earlier post about reverse-volume it almost counts as one.

Questioning players on their worldview is nice if you want to pick it apart, but it seemed like you’re jumping around on whether you want to believe Zorvo’s Town or Mafia, like you didn’t think you could commit and have flexible reads.


It’s a bad conclusion, but I was looking at different worldviews. “What if this, what if that?” If Zorvo is Mafia, he isn’t playing like he did last game, when he was Mafia. He’s playing like how I remember him playing Town. If he’s Mafia, he’d have to be mimicking those earlier Town games FMPOV.


This is disputable. Prisma voted Otter almost immediately afterward, so they probably looked at how everyone else was voting and figured it was okay. If you want to really tinfoil, you could say Prisma was told by their teammates that voting was okay. It’s not indicative of much else than Prisma and Otter being unaligned, methinks. Saying Prisma must’ve had a motive to vote doesn’t sound correct.

This is the same as what I’m seeing.

I never meant to imply that.

But of course you can. My weapons are my voice and my vote, I can leverage either.

Why do you townread Neon?
And you’ve moved Eliza to a scumread.

I don’t consider “this is a towny thought” to be a read, because that person could very easily be dropped from the readlist without a spot of bother. I’d consider a read to be something people would take into account when figuring who to execute.

they weren’t townreading anyone for posting a readlist, they were just asking you to make one…

what
this is demonstrably not true if you look at the timing of when arete and you started suspecting eliza (arete was first)

like i’m sorry, but your argument is very clearly falling apart at the seams

…What?