Bland & Flavorless Mountainous 15er - Mafia Winnered

Jarek · November 14, 2022, 11:31pm

That’s fair

Arogame123 · November 14, 2022, 11:33pm

speaking of which Jarek, as an info limmer, what are your thoughts now that Magnus is V? You stated you feel like mafia let the townies push Magnus as he appeared to be “LHF,” so what are your thoughts on the people off both wagons and your game state in general?

Arctic · November 14, 2022, 11:35pm

i was referring to your post about May today not your previous posts about them, but either way i know that last point is a reach so i don’t care too much about it

zorvo does stuff like this as town when he’s found a hill he wants to die on and people aren’t listening to him. it’s not AI, but i can understand the “not wanting to play with him” part because i feel like this is often the reason he’s voted.

@otterpopd tell me, do you think arete and zorvo can be w/w, if so why?
otherwise, who is more likely to be mafia?

meh, i don’t think it’s really a site culture thing. it’s objectively anti-town wherever you play, and we recognize it as such here obviously, from the amount of people who have called it out. the difference is i think it’s pretty level 0 to assume that antitown = wolf and i think a villager seeing someone acting in this way that’s so blatantly antitown and bordering on TWTBAW they’d think a little harder than “yeah this is a wolf”, but a wolf would be more inclined to suggest the player is mafia because it’s how they think a villager would respond to anti-town behaviour

the fact that trying to start a wagon on someone you scumread when there’s already a wagon on a different player you scumread is oftentimes pointless and more likely to result in you wasting your vote, depending on how many people support the wagon you are trying to start (eliza seemed… generally nullread by the thread overall and a wagon on her never really picked up during the middle of the day so i don’t imagine it would have been much different at eod)

you. probably
arete usually just kills people that wolfread them or their teammates and i kind of buy their response because you’re mostly townread, so it could be argued that you were killing for being consensus town rather than correct

that said i don’t think there’s any team that a neon kill is out of the question for because they were the most consensus town slot in the game

@Zorvo in a similar way to your in-depth magnus read earlier, could you do another one of those explaining your read on otter?

Arctic · November 14, 2022, 11:36pm

Arogame123 · November 14, 2022, 11:36pm

Do you believe Arctic/Arete or anyone else for that matter on Magnus had an “opportunistic push” on them? It felt like you feel that it was likelier to be mafia that would push Magnus opportunistically. So I want to better understand your thoughts there.

Jarek · November 14, 2022, 11:44pm

I’m obviously biased since 5 people (at least 2 being town) didn’t agree with me but magnus was obvious town from the moment he admitted he was fake-claiming to get a rise out of people.

You don’t do that as a Mafia because people can and will turn it against you to lead a wagon against you while declaring you the top scum-read of the game. Either they think they’re right, are happy to let someone else take the fall for them or are just sheep voting because they don’t know what else to do. I’m not saying you can’t but I think the self-sacrifice behaviour is certainly atypical from wolf players. Especially considering if the play flops and they flip mafia it falls flat.

It’s hard to say who exactly is a wolf pushing Magnus given that they have a reasonable enough excuse to scum-read Magnus for lying. I’d want to kill into anyone pushing worlds where Magnus is evil or scummy for that kind of behaviour since they’d be the likeliest to have an ulterior motive. Outside of that perhaps people very dedicated to staying off Magnus’s wagon like myself could also be looked into.

Not as much as those that were on magnus’ wagon of course but give them some scrutiny including myself. I’m looking at lemonfairy right now but I bet there were others too. That kind of behaviour might suggest someone fishing for town-cred by going against the grain of what the town wants but I wouldn’t want to kill these kinds of people off this read alone because it’s just as likely that they just didn’t want magnus to die. I know I didn’t.

He was an easy execution for the mafia to make without having to push too hard for it. Really all there is to it. The simplest solution is most of the time the actual one.

Jarek · November 14, 2022, 11:48pm

If this is true this is why Arete/Zorvo are never W/W but if one is a wolf the other should still die anyway just to be 100 percent perfectly safe that they didn’t bank on this meta being a meta.

Jarek · November 14, 2022, 11:50pm

VOTE: May

Currently fits my “shading the top wagon without trying to be the main leader of the push” criteria

Jarek · November 14, 2022, 11:54pm

[quote=“Arogame123, post:1069, topic:3686, full:true”]
Summary

Hmmm, idk, there is something about this post where I am not sure if Magnus actually believed that “all power players are mafia” based on the sentiment from the early active players on his slot. But I also think the way he was “attempting to give one read on a slot before he dies” gives off the impression where he feels like he’ll die early. So to those who play with Magnus, how often does he tend to die early as mafia vs town? And @Magnus is there a reason you felt like you’d die this early on in the game?

[quote=“Magnus, post:107, topic:3686”]
Blitz read on Zorvo before I go:

Zorvo

Clearly missing around, names me out of nowhere.

[quote=“Zorvo, post:40, topic:3686”]

Paranoia? Zorvo’s called out early interactions as being more meaningful than they appear as Town.

Did this weird grouping as Town before.

Can confirm we’ve joked, but I hadn’t been active in the thread before then. You clearly picked me out in full awareness of what you were doing.

Zorvo:

ElizaThePsycho:

why does neon scares you

[/quote]

Power Player
[/quote]

I don’t see Neon as a power player, I see Neon as a strong social player. For the record.

Zorvo:

This isn’t over defensive, it’s logic.

For the record, given how passive Zorvo played the end of last game, this is exactly how he’d want to play as a wolf here. But he wouldn’t call me out as a joke if we were aligned. He’d try to distance and get credit if and when I flipped, or vice versa.

Zorvo:

Like I actually care what your think, your push on me is bad, from what I have seen from you nothing stands out, which is bad, this entire thing is bad.

Need to see how this evolves, and how I read Arete.

Zorvo:

Nah.

VOTE: Zorvo

Self-voting hurts your team irrespective of your alignment, and you said you were trying to improve a few games back. You haven’t self-voted in a while.
Zorvo didn’t self-vote last game, so he might be trying to mimic his earlier gameplay. FTR.

Zorvo:

Here I am at first planning to just type something basic like “Your VT has arrived” or some “I’m Town” shit but instead I seen Magnus in thread and decided hey fuck why don’t I start making a joke claim in a vanilla setup, surprised no one called me sus for fake claiming Cop in Vanilla Setup, but perhaps everyone’s aware it be joke.

I’m Town Two-Shot Targeting Jailkeeper. Twice per game, I can automatically jailkeep the Mafia killer.

Zorvo:

Why should you vote Arete?

Cause I told you to.

Why should you listen to me?
Cause I’m Town

How does that make you right on Arete?
Cause Chop Chop Method

Think self-confidence is rand>v for Zorvo.

Zorvo:

Arete is voting off of me because he just wanted to attempt to make a town look bad.

Ima show everyone why he’s not only the badder one but also the wolf.

I don’t think this is convincing on its own. I’ll look at everything once I’m home.

Zorvo:

There is also a “wolf” that is going to continue to attract control and make town look bad and attempt for a wolf clean sweep.

Please analyse nightkills, everyone.
“Everyone townreads this person but they’ve survived six days straight… gee.”

Result: Nulltown, needs more data

Later follows it up with a read on Zorvo which aligns with his motives. The read on Zorvo seems to be mixed with some “coaching” which I feel like is not w/w in this case (Zorvo/Magnus not w/w) and ending with a “null town” makes sense from the reasons he was giving from his own personal meta with Zorvo. Also seems to be throwing in some jokes as well which seems rand >v.

Magnus:

You won’t be killed by Mafia, not on your first game.

It won’t happen.

Hmm, this did seem kinda weird given Magnus had no thoughts on Prisma at the time and said “mafia won’t kill you” which could be seen as potential tmi of Prisma being town if Magnus is mafia.

Magnus:

Comedic answer first:

I’m Mafia.

Serious answer:
This is your first game, and you’re still trying to get into the swing of things. Not to be blunt, but everyone else in this game has more experience and would therefore make for a better nightkill

So goes onto to explain later based on “optimal NK.” I might get the answer later but @Magnus, did you town read Prisma or were you just discussing about in the world/hypothetical where Prisma is town.

Magnus:

Focusing on one particular player…

Molly: rand>v.

Ok this specific read seems kinda townie for Magnus since he used that exact same justification on Zorvo and seems to be consistent with his reasoning/way he is giving his town reads on certain players.

Magnus:

I’m playing a bit. And now I have to stick with it, or else I’ll be nightkilled N1 in every world.

This way, paranoid evils might go “hey, let’s keep them alive. Maybe they’ll be executed.”

This is kinda of a townie thought in processing about the thought of being NK lol but I disagree with the ideology of it. And it’s not like he is utilizing this idea of “not being townie” to cover up his “scumminess” since I don’t really see that in Magnus’s play so far tbh.

Magnus:

Given it’s Mountainous, it’s usually ideal to execute as often as possible, especially early on. Rather than targeting wolves, you want infoflips. Then again, talking about executing right now is a bit bleh, but…

No, I won’t vote. Nevermind.

Magnus:

Given it’s Mountainous, it’s usually ideal to execute as often as possible, especially early on. Rather than targeting wolves, you want infoflips. Then again, talking about executing right now is a bit bleh, but…

No, I won’t vote. Nevermind.

Had initially found one of Jarek’s posts unnatural and then didn’t seem to want to vote based on agreeing with Jarek’s idea of “info flipping” and wanting to always vote and not to sleep. Seemed to lose less interest in voting based on agreeing with their idea/approach of play. But I will say @Magnus, when you say rather than “targeting wolves” you want “info flips,” wouldn’t you want to kill a wolf if you find one regardless of the day/situation?

Magnus:

Who says I distrust you? Is there a reason to distrust you? You can read responses based on your lack of a vote just as much as, if not more than, your sole vote would actually garner.

On a side note, I do like Jarek’s pressure on Magnus that he places here which makes me feel better about my tr on his slot, but I do empathize with Magnus’s response here and don’t think it’s inherently scummy and lines up with how he was feeling on Jarek initially. Didn’t seem to have a “high confident sr there” and seemed to analyze their responses/other posts.

Magnus:

I also know you liked playing with me. Glad to know there’s someone who doesn’t find me insufferable.

Wholesome convo lol and also rand >v but very slight. Don’t think mafia like to think they “are fun to play with” when they are the bad guys but it’s a very light read lol.

Magnus:

I’m gonna try and channel my “powerwolf as town” mentality from last game, since that went so well. And the rest of you can just powertown or whatever.

Wouldn’t powerwolf as town be the same as powertown lol?

Also, I noticed in their reads list, they seemed to have some change of reads like with Molly and May a bit (though I am not sure if they were fully concrete there before).

I do find it odd tho that Magnus feels that Neon is in her wolf range while also admitting that he hasn’t read much of the game, giving off the impression that he has a read he isn’t confident in. And at the same time, he wants to “take over as town” but then not help to explain/elaborate on the tell on Neon if he wants to help “take over.” lol

Magnus:

For the record, the term “powerwolf” was fully intentional there, it isn’t a slip.

Magnus:

powerwolf as town

Hence the full quotation, rather than specifying “powertown”.

oh, I guess this answers the earlier thought and was a bit.

Magnus:

Would you believe me if I said that was a typo?

But really, what I did say and what I am saying are two different reads.

At first I construed Molly’s posts as solving. On reflection, Molly has only really commented or been helpful; derpclear Prisma, explains in a follow-up post; votes Otter, says they’re doing better… and nothing else. Really, it looks like Molly’s floating.

Seems to follow up on the change of Molly and also plays into it a bit with the joke and the explanation here is valid tbh. Seems to align with how they were thinking real time but upon “re-reading” seemed to come to a different conclusion based on their “commentary” of posting holistically. Don’t see much wrong here with the switch.

Magnus:

I can’t tell if this is sarcasm.

Anyway, through an independent lens, Prisma comes across as a struggling new player with healthy, albeit unjustified, paranoia and a tendency to ask questions. This comes across as rand>v in light of the alt statement and all that.

I do like their overall conclusion/approach to Prisma here and seemed reminiscent to how I was solving around Prisma more along the lines of “being natural.”

Magnus:

Prisma isn’t mentioned in this readlist, and was only mentioned in the previous post which didn’t really explain Arete’s thoughts on their slot? “Probably Town from stats , but not really Towny… but do I townread them or scumread them? ”. Ignoring a partner is something wolves might tend to do, but there’s no hard-and-fast rule and Arete very easily could’ve decided there wasn’t enough to read Prisma on.

I do like how Magnus points out a lack of a read from Arete on Prisma prior to this but it does seem like instead of attempting to see what it means for Arete’s AI, it seems more along the lines of Magnus attempting to form disassociations and who is not “partners with each other” which actually more lines up with his thought process of attempting to form “info lynches.” Magnus doesn’t seem agenda’y here to push Arete here but rather to attempt to solve based on possible associations in a way that comes off as one attempting to solve “the game overall.” Especially with how he was placing attention on Prisma’s slot prior to this read, it seems to check out.

Magnus:

…Okay, that looks suspicious. I already said w!Prisma wouldn’t want to vote their partners early on, and here Prisma goes out of their way to avoid acknowledging your case on Arete, voting Otter for an unrelated reason.

I do like this point out from Magnus which then ties up from his previous point at looking at possible associations centered around a slot he is attempting to solve. However, I do believe Prisma here was stating he doesn’t know “how to vote” and genuilly is confused on what was going on regardless of his AI and wasn’t focused on the case but was more focused on “not knowing how to vote.” It just seemed like Prisma didn’t read it and not that he was “trying to avoid it.”

Magnus:

Through an unbiased lens, it could indicate Prisma doesn’t want to interact with you for whatever reason as well. So there’s a potential partnership there, or wolves telling them not to go up against Zorvo, or just not wanting to read your wallposts.

And here Magnus follows up with possible thoughts on how I was thinking Prisma reacted initially and not knowing “how to vote” rather than just “not wanting to read the content.” This seems like a townie solving the game and attempting to look through multiple viewpoints, hence the empathizing that I liked initially.

Magnus:

For context, since my recent games I’ve made a habit of voting on cases I don’t believe, and not voting on people I suspect, because I hold no attachment to early wagons. I never specifically townread you, I just got the vibe you were both in a mutual V/V tunnelling spot for a minute there. And this isn’t theatre.

Voting you because Zorvo asked me to.

This is kinda of funny since Magnus mentioned he had a bad habit of voting on cases he doesn’t believe but then ended up voting Arete because Zorvo asked him to and didn’t seem to mention whether he agreed/disagreed with Zorvo’s case lol.

Magnus:

For the record, that was me typing up a refusal before looking at the vc. I’ll bite so you aren’t the leading wagon. We’re already partnered, there’s no point distancing publicly.

ok he did explain it and I scrolled up earlier and it does seem to make a bit sense based on his explanation of not wanting Zorvo to be the leading wagon, which made sense based on his read of Zorvo.

Magnus:

Rather than asserting himself, Arctic was propping up another player’s read, handing them the torch, getting May to broaden their read on Eliza. Having no indication of who is evil this early on, that could suggest Arctic’s setting May up to take the fall if Eliza dies later and flips Town.

(I don’t know everyone’s meta, but it’s a tell I’ve noticed a few times before in games, so I’m calling it out.)

I do think this thought process and analysis of it makes sense from Magnus’s perspective of why he viewed it wolfy from Arctic and checks out from how he was reading him initially as he started earlier in his reads list.

Magnus:

There’s still no more than one wolf in the Arete/Zorvo/May circle. They’re all individually towny, it’s just the gamestate.

Aleph doesn’t care what the Town thinks of her, which I think is Towny.
Arctic is still scummy, although his alignment may be predicated on Arete’s flip? And he’s not indisputably scummy, I just think he’s more likely wolf than most here.
Jarek rand>v.
Molly rand>w.
Tempted to townlean Eliza alongside Otter, but I’ll be yelled at.
Townlean Aro.
Neon’s falling into her wolfrange.
Nullread Prisma.

I’m missing two people, but I don’t know who.

I kinda like how this readslist lines up more with Magnus’s thoughts that he explained earlier especially with his view on Arctic and how he viewed that trio as he mentioned earlier. It seems to me that Magnus’s thought process and explanation of reads tend to line up overall with where he places his reads on the read list. It doesn’t seem agenda-y and Magnus has been pretty open with his thought process esp on Arete and Arctic.

Magnus:

Y’know what, that could explain why you dropped your read on Eliza. You said you agreed with Arete’s reasoning, but you never even responded to his case.

I think this realization from Magnus is townie and realizes where he may have been “misunderstanding” Arctic’s motives through questioning May about Eliza, and also pointed out that he had issues with Arctic never responding to the case that Arete had which I think is a “village mindset from Magnus.”

Magnus:

It’s what I thought was happening and that was the example I provided to push my town agenda.

This demonstrates Magnus’s thoughts and his perceptions based on Arctic’s posts and thus developed the sr he had on him. I do think Magnus’s explanation/justifications he made earlier make sense from his POV and I feel like he his getting pushed on/sr here but no “fully seeing the whole picture” despite quoting and noting specific instances that bothered him in a way that I can see how a “town could reach that conclusion.” It doesn’t seem like he was misrepresenting Arctic, rather he was pointing out the issues he had and was analzying Arctic’s intentions from what he saw. He even re-checked some of the stuff he had thought and realized certain parts where maybe he could have been wrong on.

Magnus:

I can say there’s not much of a reason to suspect you in these early stages of the game, but your defence on those few reasons against your person aren’t… fantastic. Not voting Arete because they were nice to you, and because you don’t have a reason to vote, but you also voted Otter earlier for a non-alignment indicative reason, right after Zorvo wrote a case on Arete and drew your attention to it.

Ok yea, I started skimming through and this identification of noticing a contradiction in Prisma’s voting is a very good look from Magnus and demonstrates his attention to detail. This is a very townie mindset and analyzing the intentions here and seeing how they differ from Prisma, especially with noting how he felt how Prisma danced around some slots earlier when he was analyzing him earlier.

Ok, as I went through Magnus’s ISO, I concluded that he is likely town tbh for several reasons.

Magnus seems to be focusing on certain players at first that he was more familiar with (Zorvo, Prisma, Neon) and attempting to ISO their slots to better understand and get a read on him.

He also seemed to form thoughts/reasonings on players that seem to align with his playstyle and how he approaches his reads in the game with the “info lynch” and all that.

His case on Artctic and his feelings around Prisma seem to come from a townie mindset through analyzing intentions and pointing out the specific issues he had. He also seemed to have semi-mid realizations where he felt like he could be misunderstanding which felt like a townie “oh, I could be wrong moment.”

Magnus’s attention to detail as well as joking seems very good and is a townie look for him and I feel like overall Magnus is getting pushed for some “contradictions” and lack of “fully understanding the picture” where I feel like is a bit unjust esp with how Magnus approached his reads and came to his conclusions. It did not feel agenda-y and he seemed to me like an open book with his approach to the game and through making reads. Is not fearful with his cases and is pointing out what he dislikes in what he sees.

Overall, I feel like Magnus is V and just a ml waiting to happen tbh.

I kind of word-saladed a bit but main thoughts are “focus/paying attention to detail”, “thought process are consistent with his approach to his reads”, and “seems to be having fun with his bit while not being agenda’yd in the way he forms his reads.”

Arogame123 is town for agreeing with me

Jarek · November 14, 2022, 11:54pm

wtf just happened that is NOT what I quoted.

Okay whatever have a wallpost for absolutely no reason.

Jarek · November 14, 2022, 11:55pm

Like actually just ignore that wallpost I didn’t even quote that it just broke for no reason just delete that post mods!!!

Arctic · November 14, 2022, 11:58pm

this is totally something i can defend myself from, thank you phraze

is there anything in particular that you thought looked worse about me

ehhhh
pushing it a bit but maybe. still need more… like why they thought i looked worse than magnus

i don’t think neon’s read on phraze was actually like. real. her only mentions of phraze are talking about phraze’s profile picture pocketing her and then saying “i don’t even care she’s town”, and her last mention of phraze was this:

which makes me feel like the entire read was a meme. so i wouldn’t clear her for this

and while we’re here, didn’t you say you’d look at neon’s reasoning for their phraze townread? because i feel like if you did this wouldn’t have been a consideration lol

i think your poe of otter/eliza/may is fine, i want to go into more detail about why i think eliza’s recent posts today are an improvement but it’ll probably have to be tomorrow because i’m about to pass out

if you think the wagons were v/v, what stops the magnus wagon from being pure? in this world wolves could equally likely be voting the counterwagon or some random wagon. in fact if the wagons were v/v it’s probably more likely to be pure so wolves could avoid scrutiny today with the logic you’re pushing, or use that to make pushes themselves

what posts made you think this was happening
i don’t know how much of the thread you read, but i feel like the only time i did this was when i told them that i had the same opinion about magnus’s vote on them being weird when it happened

Prisma101 · November 14, 2022, 11:58pm

Thats a joke right? He’s already dead and cant answer

Jarek · November 14, 2022, 11:58pm

Yeah just ignore that post it broke for zero reason and now it looks like I had a psychotic break

Arctic · November 15, 2022, 12:00am

uh
.what, lol?
why does this only apply to aretel?
and why would you die when you weren’t even townread? just because you had 1 correct read

Arctic · November 15, 2022, 12:04am

if they are never w/w then why are you saying the other should die if the first flips wolf lol

i kinda see what you mean but i feel like this only applies to wolf arete not killing seth, so if arete flipped wolf i’d understand suspecting seth if he didn’t end up dying, for obvious reasons, but i don’t think the reverse really applies because it doesn’t make sense for a wolf seth to kill someone he’s tunneling

Jarek · November 15, 2022, 12:05am

because zorvo hellbusses everyone and and arete wouldn’t be able to shoot their own partner mechanically speaking it’s simple

Arctic · November 15, 2022, 12:06am

okay fair enough i didn’t really factor in the whole zorvo hellbussing thing but i feel like he’s capable of tunneling a villager as a wolf lol

Jarek · November 15, 2022, 12:07am

Fair.

3/14 chance (3 wolves, rest are V not counting yourself) of deciding to deathtunnel a wolf. And being absolutely certain you are right and convinced your reads are correct while trying to instate yourself in town-core at the same time

It’s 100 percent just a play if arete is a wolf I’m not buying it

Prisma101 · November 15, 2022, 12:08am

Isn’t it 3/13