It bases the idea on the fact that Richard in this world would want to frame the game as a fang gu game and get the outsiders lynched later on; Shark dies and is either the demon and richard is SW (Which explains the rather passive snitch claim) or he’s cerenovus and richard is the demon, claiming the outsider bluff he got.
Either way lycan is pretty much deadset to exist and does the first few kills. The part where this gets dicey is the part where richard gets picked and dies; It’s possible he’s just trying to kill himself every night to frame himself as a real outsider to continue the fang gu world, or he just decided to pick himself when the lycan did, and died.
He starpasses to whysper who then starpassed last night (because they had to), Mist was unfortunately killed as a townie (pretty sure they were claiming choirboy(?) ) which if they were claiming choir makes sense if they were trying to get attacked by the demon and cover the balloonists ass except the balloonist got killed so idfk.