the end
With a 50/50 chance of being relevant.
bionic assumed we’d make them good due to lack of trust, and otherwise figuring out whos jurgen is useful for evil
Presumably Bionic wouldn’t have claimed End if they spoke to Kiiruma. It therefore wouldn’t be justifiable.
i expected bionic to speak to kii, due to the lack of foresight i have of them as a character, due to having the end’s ability, which would all be on bionic. otherwise, they would’ve just sat there and done nothing if given a do-nothing ability
Admittedly, if Bionic waited a night in silence and then just boldly claimed the End, that presumably would have been completely ideal in their world. Either villager and it’s true/helpful, wither evil and it’s false/unhelpful, that would’ve been my broad assumption in that position. Yeah.
Gotcha. Your attempt to whisper Jarek again EOD2 successfully threw me off.
1 townsfolk is correct, 4 other townsfolk are in-play, and 3 townsfolk are bluffs, out of 13 total townsfolk. When a 3f3 is given, there’s a 7/12 chance that the first incorrect role is provably not its claimer’s, and then given that, there’s a 6/11 chance that the second incorrect role is provably not the claimer’s.
About a 32% chance you give a 3f3 and the Demon can 100% narrow your claim down by knowing other people’s claims. 15% chance that you give a 3f3 where none of the claims can be contradicted, meaning the Demon has a 1/3 chance of guessing your role right. 53% chance you give a 3f3 where only one claim can be contradicted, and from there a 1/2 chance of guessing your role right.
That’s a 0.32 * 1 + 0.15 * 1/3 + 0.53 * 1/2 = 0.635, ~64% chance the Demon guesses your role correctly if they have every other claim and you give them a 3f3.
Not blind luck! The most likely outcome from Jarek giving a 3!
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nerd
(i thought it was blind luck cause i wasnt paying attention due to Sick and kii was surprised in his rolecard)
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wait i think i mandela’d myself kii only said that about magnus
That being said, I’m pushing agenda here: we didn’t know nuto and Moll’s roles, so 15% chance both roles contradicted, 53% chance one contradicted, 32% chance neither did. Only a 52% chance we jump Jarek from him giving an accurate 3f3. Still the more likely outcome
In hindsight, Moll dying should have outed Jonah Magnus following the Slaughter ping, since any Demon leading kills presumably would’ve murdered Nuto in that instance. But then Pigeon getting attacked the following night (which didn’t happen, but is what was perceived to happen) confused that scenario.
this was because of a fallacy of “who would be viewed as more valuable to jonah magnus; the only person who talks that coordinated with the buried and everybody else to be the only person that talks, or the buried”
the person doing the keeping alive of the person doing work was deemed to be more important then the person doing work
…which i fought hard for
AND THEN IT DIDNT EVEN MATTER
Nuto didn’t nominate that day, so in that case I would have imagined Pigeon, who had been coordinated and sorted the POE himself, and was leveraging the former’s ability as a mechanical effect and a tool, would have been the more helpful player. That was my internalised understanding of it.
pigeon was also wrong
besjbo called it a 50/50 but supported making the game more fun by sending it to f3
Pigeon was wrong, but Nuto wasn’t correct either.
its based off of whos valuable, not intentions
Here’s a chart of the likelihood that the evils guess your exact role in a 9p based on how many other Townsfolk claims they have
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