Flipless Purgatory - Hell Phase 2 (7/9)

You should send Mittens to Heaven Heaven Phase 2 though.

Math finished
I was testing how important Judgement day accuracy is

In the world where we have one wolf in hell and the rest alive after Hell phase 2, if Martyr chat has 0% accuracy, town only has a 40% win chance. If Martyr chat has 100% accuracy, town has a 93.333ā€¦% win chance
Iā€™m pretty sure that in this case the relationship between accuracy and winrate is linear

And in the world where no-one sent in the first 3 phases is a wolf, 0% accuracy in martyr chat means 0% winrate, and 100% accuracy in martyr chat means 100% winrate (this relationship is probably quadratic if Iā€™m thinking about this right)

so basically yeah, Martyr accuracy matters a lot, even in the world where weā€™re right on either Frink or who we send in next Hell phase*


*of course if weā€™re right on both the game ends but thatā€™s not likely, and if wolves are in that kind of position I think we ~always win anyway

-:coffee:

Now to finish watching a video on Youtube before taking a nap.

Well, Iā€™m not surprised you do it a lot more as wolf - itā€™s a towntell because it shows enthusiasm to play, and for most people, thatā€™s towny. For you itā€™s wolfy, since you enjoy playing a lot more as wolf.

-:coffee:

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Fair enough. So youā€™re saying it depends on the person then.

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Now for that video and nap. Remember, Leafeons deserve to be sent to Heaven first. :sleepingleafeon:

~correct, yeah
(Also for soweli Iā€™d expect sheā€™d enjoy town more given my experience of her in Wrogn 2)

-:coffee:

hullo hullo
apologies for the absence, had a work emergency i needed to deal with

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time to backread

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Quiet, isnā€™t it?

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Yesā€¦

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Then letā€™s make it loud! VOTE: Meme

Took a tiny break from the flip from the last phase. I still donā€™t know how to feel about the way FRink acted during the EOD of the last phase. Still not sure about it entirely but there is one thing for certain I know and I might as well act on my information that Meme is Town.

yeah
I donā€™t think itā€™s too surprising given the (lack of) activity in hell phase 1 and this being a heaven phase

I would say Myself, Soweli, possibly you (Leafia) in order of preference as ascension candidates today
Because I think my reasons to townread Soweli/you are a bit more robust than my ones for Meme/Chomps

-:coffee:

You can do so much good here though where Iā€™d be useless in figuring stuff out here. Although youā€™d be my second choice on who to send today. Weā€™re not sending you to Heaven today Memes.

This is mostly accurate.

Also I really donā€™t like Leafia voting herself here. Feels. slimy? Not sur ehow to describe it but i donā€™t like it. In part because I donā€™t think Leafiaā€™s been like. notably more towny than other players so it seems weird to try to push herself into heaven. Further thoughts are being withheld but Chomps is >rand to bring them up.

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I may be overcompensating but I think focusing on utility over towniness is what loses us the game.

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I think thatā€™s fair, but without messages there can be no town to be made out of someone, and it becomes real scary endgame

Later votes are gonna be more and more about towniness, Heaven is the important one, keep it pure and towny, and Hell is the filter, sending a town here is less impactful than a wolf to Heaven, doesnā€™t mean it still isnā€™t bad tho.

My thoughts on Beancat are that I donā€™t think theyā€™ll be readable compared to most players, and on the lategame itā€™s their vote that gets more and more weight while we sent slots that are here talking and making content that can be readable and correctly filtered into Heaven/Hell, a believer Wolf should always go before Beancat

believed wolf not believer wolf lol