Ice Cream Mafia - Day 2 (12/14)

[Frostwolf103]

@Zone_Q11

@tutuu

I would urge everyone to be a bit more confident in your ability to be townread (if you are town), and to not refuse the chocolate mode if people want to give it to you.

Being Chocolate doesn’t only make Town to think about choosing someone who they think is also Town: It makes them think about which Town is most likely going to be attacked by the Mafia.

“Who is Mafia’s greatest threat, if any?”
“Who is Town’s greatest pillar? Whose death will cripple Town’s activity?”
“Whose death would cause the most confusion among Town? Whose death could be used to push another player?”

…the saddest part is: In my experience as host, there are many instances where a Mafia member just randomly throw out a name, and the other members just silently agreed to it.

So whereas Town would internally have to take more effort in predicting the attack, the Mafia will probably just say: (A) “Kill X?”; (B) “Yeah, sure.”; (C) “Fine by me.”

@tutuu

Do you agree that the more wolves in the pool of vanillas, the better?

Well duh. The more wolves in the pool of Vanillas, the higher the odds of Neapolitan finding them. (This is assuming Neapolitan checks a random player in the Vanilla pool though.)

@tutuu

Red peek better than green peek?

Infinitely so. Greenchecks is the best consolidation prize, but redchecks lead to spew.

Speaking of checks, how do we plan to hide the actual Neapolitan’s checks at D2? Should we also claim redchecks, or should we only claim greenchecks as well?

I wouldn’t discuss regarding the taste tester, let the mafia keep guessing, they will use every strip of information we sprout.

[tutuu]

pings

@Zone_Q11
@jail
@childe
@Frostwolf103
@Leafia
@Marluna
@Magnus
@potatocat
@Camilleon15
@Creature
@Hippopablompoyeetus
@tutuu
@I_like_posts
@Chomps

The current list for 5 chocolates for N1 is: Tutuu, Zone, Leafia, Jail, PotatoCat

If your name is NOT on this list, it’s mandatory that you pick Vanilla tonight

If your name IS on this list, it’s mandatory that you pick Chocolate tonight

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and also,

@Marluna

probably giving out double results (one for red and one for green) might be a version as well. (but the hindsight, we wouldn’t able to tell which cop results are the truth after a cop death.

Opinion?

What do you think about trying out this strategy?

Basically, at the start of every day, everyone makes two hypothetical claims. One green peek and one red peek. For example:

“N1 - katze vanilla and N1 - chloe non-vanilla”

The pro is that it will be much easier to provide cop cover. The cop will be much harder to find and kill

The con is that once the cop dies the peeks won’t be fully apparent, and it would require us to solve / guess a bit

Marluna, Zone and I are in favor of trying it out. It sounds fun to me, it could work

[Frostwolf103]

Tutuu is non-vanilla last night

Tutuu:

[tutuu]

lmao

[Frostwolf103]

That’s everyone just saying about you for lulz.

Now, about Marluna’s idea…I think this gives the cop claim some breathing room

[Zone_Q11]

@Frostwolf103

I wouldn’t discuss regarding the taste tester, let the mafia keep guessing, they will use every strip of information we sprout.

I disagree. Confusing the Mafia by hiding the Taste Tester is important. The discussion is necessary, and one conclusion was already reached:

@Marluna

giving out double results (one for red and one for green)

This plan can lead to false positives in case Ice Creams redcheck correctly (thereby taunting Mafia) and false negatives in case Neapolitan got a redcheck and lied about it (lowering Mafia’s attention).

*re-evaluates Luna’s plan*

Hm… a combination of true positive and false negative is dangerous, as it drastically increases the odds of Neapolitan getting caught.

Perhaps we should return to only one result after all. (Worst comes to worst, we do this as Frost says, and discuss how to cover the cop on the fly in the future.)

[Frostwolf103]

@Zone_Q11

I disagree. Confusing the Mafia by hiding the Taste Tester is important. The discussion is necessary, and one conclusion was already reached:

You know, I take it back. I didn’t saw the plan until tutuu mentioned it.

[Marluna]

@Zone_Q11

Hm… a combination of true positive and false negative is dangerous, as it drastically increases the odds of Neapolitan getting caught.

the only way this would give out the Neopolitan in the case cits all are giving out double false negatives… (which is a very unlikely occurance)
otherwhise all result are either one true and false, or two positives.

[Marluna]

@Zone_Q11

This plan can lead to false positives in case Ice Creams redcheck correctly (thereby taunting Mafia) and false negatives in case Neapolitan got a redcheck and lied about it (lowering Mafia’s attention).

obviously cop shouldn’t lie about their result… Otherwhise the whole system can go into the trash.

[Marluna]

If you ever assume cop will lie about their result, we shouldn’t even consider claiming any results even with single results, because every greencheck of theirs will turn into: “What if they just wanted to mislead mafia…”

[Zone_Q11]

Hm… I’m gonna try seeing this from Mafia’s POV.

---

Two checks (red and green)
Correct Red & Correct Green → Maybe Cop
Correct Red & Incorrect Green → Maybe Cop redcheck
Incorrect Red & Correct Green → Maybe Cop greencheck
Incorrect Red & Incorrect Green → Definitely not Cop

One check (green-only)
Correct Green → Maybe Cop
Incorrect Green → Maybe Cop (because maybe redcheck)

One check (red-only)
Correct Red → Maybe Cop
Incorrect Red → Maybe Cop (because maybe greencheck)

One check (random)
Correct check → Maybe Cop
Incorrect check → Unlikely Cop (because why would Cop give false result?)

---

As far as security goes, two-checks is less secure than one-check, because if someone gives two wrong results, then Mafia knows they are not Cop. In this aspect (i.e., security), one predetermined check gives the least amount of information to Mafia.

However, as far as efficiency goes (i.e., Cop giving correct info to Town), one-check-random gives the best result. Except this is such a terrible method, since Mafia would immediately know that anyone who gives wrong checks are not Cop.

. . .

Okay, maybe I should stop thinking about this. Obviously Town would have to choose which option is the lesser evil, but at the moment I am starting to believe Frost might be right about how discussing this might not be a good idea at all.

[Marluna]

@Zone_Q11

As far as security goes, two-checks is less secure than one-check, because if someone gives two wrong results, then Mafia knows they are not Cop. In this aspect (i.e., security), one predetermined check gives the least amount of information to Mafia.

it’s literally has 75% case where people can be cop and only 25% where people can’t be cop

whereas in the single check options it’s 50% if they are cops or not cops.

last time I checked 75% is higher than 50%…

[Zone_Q11]

Increasing security means lowering efficiency / reliability. For instance, we could add more confusion for the Mafia by adding one dummy answer for each check in the two-checks method, but in doing so, Town would have to somehow figure out which check among the four answers is actually the correct one.

This… is starting to be beyond me. I don’t wanna think about this.

Y’know what, I’ll just give up and go along with whatever tutuu says we’ll do about this.

[Marluna]

@Zone_Q11

One check (green-only)
Correct Green → Maybe Cop
Incorrect Green → Maybe Cop (because maybe redcheck)

One check (red-only)
Correct Red → Maybe Cop
Incorrect Red → Maybe Cop (because maybe greencheck)

Also these are just unbelievable scenarios, why would we ever want to give out results, if the cop result can be false? It has literally no game relevance…

[Zone_Q11]

I assume you’re thinking of one-check-random instead of one-check-predetermined. But anyhow, those are not the actual percentages.

On paper, it looks like you can only be correct or incorrect. 50-50. However, in practice, the amount of people who will guess someone’s alignment correctly is dependent on their individual social reading skills. For instance, if 7 of 9 Town were to give a correct check at D2, then this “percentage” becomes ~77%.

Thinking about it this way, your method of getting everyone to reveal two checks is the best option, as the odds of someone getting a double false is realistically low. (It is more likely someone gets a correct greencheck randomly than getting both checks false.)

…I have to just believe in everyone’s social reading skills.

[Zone_Q11]

@Marluna

why would we ever want to give out results, if the cop result can be false? It has literally no game relevance…

Security measures. Hiding the Cop by forsaking information.

[Creature]

@Zone_Q11

I watched The Dragon Prince up to season three. Apparently it now has seven seasons, and I’ve been meaning to catch up and maybe rewatch the whole thing. It’s been a while.

Oh I just finished the last season. I won’t spoil anything until you’re done though. Ftr I guess it’s worth watching until the very end, but I wouldn’t support an eighth season.

[Marluna]

But that’s the whole reason for giving out results so we can compare afterwards they can’t give information out anymore.

We can just easily not giving out any result and we have the same amount of information than everyone giving out just reds or just greens…

[Creature]

It’s a western animated show from the same creators of Avatar: The Last Airbender and The Legend of Korra, but set in a different universe (with similar events). imo it’s weaker than ATLA and TLOK, but still interesting enough to watch.

[Creature]

@Zone_Q11

Creature - Chill guy. Dunno what his alignment is, but I’m pretty darn sure he ain’t dying until at least D4. (I’m townleaning him. I had a bad first impression, but he seems to be chill.)